On The Heels

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2009-04-11T14:04:00.001-04:00

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Go Heels!

John Wall, Coach Clifton, and Roy Williams

2009-04-10T10:10:00.008-04:00

There have been some rumors circulating about John Wall (left), the top ranked point guard in the 2009 class. Supposedly, Roy called him last Thursday from the Final Four, but Wall later said Roy wasn't recruiting him and UNC was not on his list. One of the reasons for this may have been Wall's AAU coach, Brian Clifton. Clifton apparently is upset that a.) Roy didn't recruit Wall sooner, and b.) Roy wasn't interested in another one of Clifton's recruits that Clifton had brought to Carolina earlier. According to the News and Observer, Clifton said, "I have no desire to talk to, to be involved with, to visit, to contemplate in any shape, form or fashion John Wall going to play for Roy Williams. Zero." Tarheelfanblog says that when a talk radio personality asked Clifton what he didn't like about Roy, he said "I don’t have any respect for Roy Williams. I encourage [my players] to play for guys that will inspire them to be good people. If you’re not a good person, you can’t make someone a good person."
I've never heard of Roy inspiring so much hate in someone. Clifton sounds a bit like a spurned, vindictive ex-girlfriend. I mean, tell me if I'm wrong, but he said he wants a coach who's a good person, and then goes on to call Roy a bad person. Take your own advice there, buddy. Roy is one of the most well liked and respected coaches in college. He has never been anything but a class act. So my guess is that Clifton, like a middle school girl, is trying to stir up controversy to get some attention. He's an embarrassment, and its a shame that he's partially in control of so many young talents' futures. Not only that, but his arm- flailing attention-whoring comes at the expense of his recruits futures. He's burning bridges, and I have no doubt that his lofty ambition of cannibalizing his players' careers for his own amelioration will fail.
Furthermore, Clifton met with Coach K and said he was impressed with Duke, and Wall now has Duke on his shortlist. Clifton said, "The emergence of Duke as a viable option, that in and of itself has caused a change."
"We all left the meeting with the conclusion that it was worth exploring further," said Clifton. "I respect Coach K and the way that he goes about business. … He was enough of a professional to deal with people based on who they really are, not on what he’s heard they might be. I’d be comfortable with any of my guys learning from and being shaped and molded by a guy who’s got that in his character."
Based on his earlier allusions, that last bit again seems like a dig at Roy. Clifton has proven himself to be a sycophantic leech, a carpetbagging, opportunist parasite, drunk on the power he gets from his players' leverage. I certainly hope his outlandish attention mongering doesn't affect the players unlucky enough to be in his auspices.

Coach on ESPN Radio

2009-04-10T09:44:00.001-04:00

Roy was on ESPN Radio the other day talking about the Championship game, the motivation for the team... Give it a listen. (Its about 10 minutes)

2009 vs. 2005

2009-04-10T09:23:00.003-04:00

I'm not going to try to tell you which team was better. But I think the stat comparisons are pretty interesting. First, some overall team stats. 2009 (2005): 90 ppg (88p ppg), 48 rpg (40 rpg), 18 apg (19 apg), 12 turnovers per game (16 turnovers per game), 8.6 spg (10 spg), 5.2 bpg (3.8 bpg), 75.2% FT (72.5%), 48% FG (50%), 38.7% 3pFG (40.3%). Those are pretty remarkably similar. The only player that averaged more than 27 minutes per game on that team was Ray Ray Felton, whereas the 2009 team had 4 players averaging 27+ mpg (Hansbrough, Ellington, Green, and Lawson).
Some position player comparisons (and keep in mind, like I said, these guys had more minutes per game than the 2005 team, which partially explains the inflated numbers)
Hansbrough (20 ppg, 8 rpg) vs. Sean May (17.5 ppg, 11 rpg)
Lawson (17 ppg, 3 rpg, 7 apg, 2 spg, 2 TOpg) vs. Felton (13 ppg, 4 rpg, 4 apg, 0.3 spg, 3.6 TOpg)
Ellington (16 ppg, 5 rpg, 2.7 apg) vs. McCants (16 ppg, 3 rpg, 2.7 apg)

If we can objectively use these players to project NBA success, I think this 2009 team could be solid NBA players. McCants has shown some flashes of greatness. Felton has been excellent for the Bobcats and has consistently gotten better. The comparison between May and Hansbrough, though I think is much less apt, because May seems to have no drive whatsoever, whereas Tyler... well, it doesn't need to be said.

Championship Celebration at the Dome

2009-04-09T10:00:00.002-04:00

I can't figure out how to embed this video, cause I'm a dumbass, but if you go to tarheelblue and click on "Championship Celebration," beneath the video player, you can watch the players arriving at the Dean Dome on Tuesday. Its about 30 minutes long, but worth it. Especially Waynebow Ellington and his three piece suit.

2009 One Shining Moment Video, plus the Championship game in 2 minutes

2009-04-08T15:04:00.004-04:00

...in case you're into this sort of thing.

Here are some highlights of the Championship game. I think I've probably watched this clip 10 or 12 times.

Honored Jersey's from the 2009 Championship Team

2009-04-08T11:11:00.003-04:00

So, as if you didn't already realize how special this team was, let's talk rafters. For a player to be eligible to have his jersey honored, he must:
1. Be MVP of a Championship team
2. Be first or second team all American
or
3. Be a member of a gold winning Olympic team.

Waynestorm Ellington (number 22) was named MOP of the Final Four, and Ty Lawson (number 5) was a second team all American. Frankly, I (along with Roy Williams) think that ACC Player of the Year honors should also make someone eligible to have his jersey retired. I'm not sure how many ACC POYs there have been who haven't been first or second team all American. I'm guessing not that many.
And, for a player to have his jersey retired, he must win one of the six National Player of the Year awards: Associated Press, National Association of Basketball Coaches, Sporting News, John R. Wooden Award, Oscar Robertson Trophy, or Naismith College Player of the Year. Obviously, this includes Hansbrough (number 50).
So 60% of the starting 5 of this team will be in the rafters. That's pretty amazing. Carolina currently has 43 jerseys honored/retired. Adding 3 to that number from one team is pretty incredible.
And FYI, there's already two number 22s in the rafters; York Larese, who played from 1958-61, had his jersey retired when he was named second team all American. The second is from Bob Lewis, who played from 1964-1967, a first team All American.

Franklin Street Celebration Time Lapse

2009-04-08T10:04:00.003-04:00

This is pretty awesome. CNN.com posted a time lapse video of the celebration on Franklin Street. If you look carefully, you can make out me and Alex on the balcony at Top O. Not really, but that'd be cool too.

Eazy-E Returning for his Sophomore Season

2009-04-08T09:11:00.004-04:00

Ed Davis has said he won't even test the waters in the NBA draft this season. ESPN had him predicted as a lottery pick, but he's said he won't hire an agent and is "definitely" returning. Obviously this is great news for Carolina fans... he'll be an experienced body in the spectacular returning front court for Carolina next year.

2009 NCAA Men's Basketball

2009-04-07T19:28:00.003-04:00

CHAMPIONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GO HEELS

2009-04-06T19:08:00.003-04:00

Now's the time. Do it for Tyler. Do it for Danny. Do it for Bobby. Do it for Roy. Do it for everyone out there who gets chills at the first few words of Kurault's quote, who tears up at the mere idea of the Clefs singing "Carolina In My Mind" on the Kenan turf, who can spell C-A-R-O-L-I-N-A with their arms faster than most people can spell Y-M-C-A.

Do it for blue cups at He's Not. Do it for cheese tots at Hector's. Do it for the bowl of muthafucking cheese. Do it for the kids who jump into pools from frat house roofs.

Do it for all the right reasons because it's one of the few places left in this world where you can.

But above all, before anything else in the world: do it for yourselves. Game on.

Bring on the Spartans!

2009-04-05T17:11:00.003-04:00

Great win against the Nova Wildcats. After dispatching the traditional Cinderellas with relative ease, it's time to crush the dreams of the 2009 version in like fashion.

One thing's for certain- no matter how much they protest, we know the Spartans will be at least a little in awe of the Tar Heels. Their eyes betray them (thanks Beth).

Final Four Edition: Villanova Game Guide

2009-04-03T10:55:00.003-04:00

8:47 PM EST, April 4th: North Carolina vs. Villanova. ACC vs. Big East. Powerhouse program vs. not-so-much-anymore-Cinderella program. The line right now is Carolina -7, with an over under at 159.5. If you followed my advice with the o/u for the Oklahoma game, you would have lost, so I'm not going to suggest anything else, lest you lose again. Anyway, let's take a look back at how we got here.
Carolina began the season with the highest expectations, yadda yadda, we're in the Final Four. That's all that matters now, so I refuse to take a look back. All of you that feel the slightest disappointment with Carolina's season so far can go to hell. I'm not going to rehash the season, because we were all there, and I frankly don't think there's any insight to be gained about this team by analyzing statistics from the regular season. But here we are. Carolina rolled over Oklahoma in the last game, 72-60. A well below average game for Carolina in terms of overall score, but there were many fewer possessions than normal because Carolina was executing its half court offense extremely well. By every metric, Carolina played a great game; FG%, FT%, 3ptFG%, TOs, Assists... there are no complaints here.
Villanova, in their tournament run, has really only played one tight game; the last one against Pitt. They beat UCLA and Duke without much trouble at all. Villanova was not a sleeper; afterall, they're a 3 seed. But if you have a look at their schedule, they really don't have any bad losses, except for an in conference game against Georgetown. Their other losses: 2 times vs. Louisville, @ WVU, @UConn, and @ Marquette. In terms of points for, points against, they're fairly average: 77 pf, 67 pa. You'll hear pundits talk nonstop about Nova's balance. They have 8, almost 9, players averaging double digit minutes per game. They share the ball pretty well, with 15 assists per game (compared to Carolina's 18). An important tipping point, as it always is, could be rebounds. Nova averages 38 rpg to Carolina's 42. But in the tournament, Carolina has averaged an anemic 32 (not including the Radford game). That's a little surprising, because Eazy-E Ed Davis (pictured right in a recent photo) has been playing a lot more, and he's a beast on the boards. Carolina is going to have to rebound better and keep Nova from getting second chance opportunities.
There's no reason to believe Carolina's recent lockdown defense is a trend. I think its about time everyone can agree that this is how this team defends; well. The style of man-to-man that Carolina is known for is excellent against a team like Villanova with so many scoring threats. Mainly, in man to man, you have more accountability from the defender. So if Roy doesn't like a specific matchup, he can sub a player into a better matchup. With zone defense, you really have to go with whoever plays that particular zone well. Nova does have some big swingmen that can score, who may create some matchup problems for the Heels.
Now, for some superstition fodder: Carolina beat Villanova in the tournament in 1982 and 2005. Does anyone remember how those years turned out?

I'll be back later with some names to know. This isn't my fulltime job, you know.

Tyler Hansbrough

2009-04-03T09:32:00.005-04:00

This is the last weekend we'll ever have of Tyler Hansbrough in a Carolina uniform. I can't say that enough, because he's already proved he's one of the best Carolina players of all time. Andy Katz wrote an article on Hansbrough's senior year that's worth a read. I'm tired of reading all the articles, asking how he'll be as a pro, because I really don't care anymore. I'm just glad in 30 years, I'll be able to say that I saw almost every game he ever played as a Tarheel. Enjoy it, guys.

Lawson already a winner in Detroit

2009-04-02T16:11:00.002-04:00

The Heels have only been in the swarthy sinkhole that is Detroit, MI since last night, but Ty Lawson's already a big winner: today he was named the recipient of this year's Bob Cousy Award for the nation's best point guard and even found time to win $250 in craps at the casino.

The last Tar Heel to win the Cousy award was Raymond Felton ('05). The last Tar Heel to be famous for gambling was Michael Jordan.

Our demons explained

2009-04-02T15:58:00.002-04:00

The Bleacher Report posted a nice article explaining why this season hasn't been nearly as enjoyable as it should be, considering the amount of success and domination. It all comes down to one motherfucking bear of a thing: expectations.

Sometimes, ESPN just doesn't even try (including Ty Hanosaurus Rex)

2009-04-02T15:43:00.005-04:00

Inside the Brain of Tyler Hansbrough

Ty Hanosaurus Rex (below)

Some people just don't have enough to do. I may or may not be one of them (see: liveblogging from my couch during the McDonald's All American game).

Don't Worry, World

2009-04-02T12:19:00.003-04:00

Everything's gonna be ok.

Poll: Dean Dome toughest venue in college bball

2009-04-02T11:41:00.003-04:00

So it's terribly unscientific and borderline illogical- who cares? After what Tyler and Danny did to Cameron, the Dean Dome's relative toughness for opposing teams was bound to increase.

According to a national poll of basketball fans. Sponsored by EA Sports. For their video game.

Number one, baby!

McDonalds Game

2009-04-01T20:11:00.016-04:00

8:14 pm: Carolina recruit Henson just threw down a couple big dunks. He can really soar. And he's running the floor really well. He moves like a guard... but he's 6'10". Apparently he's a relative of Len Elmore. Anyway, he looks to be about 150 lbs. Dude is skinny.

Dexter Strickland had a turnover, but has shown some quick moves. He's a little undersized, but he's shifty.

Wear twins have yet to get in the game.

8:20 pm: One of the Wear twins is in. No idea which one. He's really moving well with the ball. Has driven from the wing a couple times, and has a turnover and an unremarkable steal. Just had a highlight reel assist, too.
Duke recruit Mason Plumlee and Wear just high fived each other, and I threw up a little.

The other Wear is in now and also had a quick turnover. They've both made some bad quick decisions.

8:40 pm: The Wear twins are listed at 6'9" but look closer to 6'7". From the game in general, you see some flashes of real skill, but everybody looks raw and no one plays defense. It looks like all four of the Carolina recruits handle the ball really well and are threats from anywhere on the floor. But someone desperately needs to get John Henson some Weight Gain 4000.Apparently, when answering the question, "What coach in history would you most like to play for?" Henson answered, "Jim Valvano." I'm not sure I'm okay with that.
Henson just showed some more inside moves. He's a scoring machine.
8:45 pm: Henson again, +1. He's solid.
And a block. Damn.

8:55 pm: Okay, I don't know what to make of the Wears. They move really well, and sometimes handle the ball really well, but then double dribble in open court with no defender. But they seem to make things happen with some long assists, rebounds, solid defense...
D Strick just dove on the floor for a loose ball. Somewhere, Roy is smiling.

9:30 pm: Henson is all over the floor. Just got a little dish from one of the Wears. He seems to be able to dunk from anywhere within 10 feet of the basketball as long as he's got a step. Dunked at one end, got back and blocked a shot at the other. He looks like maybe the best athlete on the floor.

9:33 pm: The coach of the West team seems to have a strategy to have 1 Wear on the floor at all times. I think this is a good idea. List them as the same number, and play each for 20 minutes a game, so they look totally tireless. What could be more demoralizing?

If you like blue balls...

2009-04-01T16:52:00.002-04:00

Read this article. Please. And tell me if it doesn't leave you wondering what the hell just happened. What was the point? To nag on how this year's Heels aren't as good as they should have been? Fail. To point out the ridiculous nature of our superlative sports media culture? Fail.

I was hoping Scoop was heading towards a wistful commentary underscoring the greatness we've seen unfold these last few weeks and how the season has come full circle, and the Heels have a chance to be that great team this weekend. Sadly, fail.

Now excuse me while I drag my "pantone blue" balls over to tarheelblue.com and wrap myself in the quick release of Adam Lucas' archives.

Feature on "Rambo"

2009-04-01T14:39:00.002-04:00

ESPN posted feature articles on a player from each team in the Final Four, and this is the one on Ty.

Basically, he's the best.

ESPN Accuscore Update

2009-04-01T13:24:00.002-04:00

In the previous post, Jimmy showed us what it takes for Nova to upset the Heels, and vice versa. Despite the misleading headline for the article at ESPN, here's the likelihood for each scenario, via their "infallible" computer models.

UNC wins = 73%
Nova wins = 27%

For reference, the Elite Eight matchup only tilted to the Heels 62/38.

Go Heels.

ESPN AccuScore UNC/Nova Prediction

2009-04-01T12:53:00.002-04:00

Here's the whole article, cause most people won't be able to access it unless you're an ESPN Insider. Its vaguely interesting. Here's a link to the original.

Even though the Villanova Wildcats are 7.5-point underdogs in Vegas, if they win, they most likely will win by seven or more points. If the North Carolina Tar Heels beat the Cats, expect a double-digit margin (around 15 points). In other words, you can ignore the spread.

The two outcomes hing on two stats: 3-point shooting percentage and rebounding.

When Villanova won in simulations, the Wildcats shot 38 percent from 3-point range while North Carolina was a cold 31 percent. Villanova also slightly out-rebounded the Tar Heels. That makes a lot of sense, as we just saw a similar scenario play out in the Elite Eight.

In its upset win over Pittsburgh, Villanova shot just 30 percent from 3-point range, but this was better than Pitt's 27.8 percent. The undersized Villanova squad also out-rebounded one of the best rebounding teams in the country 29-27.

Free throw percentage was a huge factor for Villanova against Pittsburgh, but it will not likely be a big factor against the Tar Heels, as both teams shoot well from the line. Turnovers always play a major role, but Villanova can win even if it commits more turnovers than North Carolina. In simulation wins, Villanova averaged 13.1 turnovers to Carolina's 12.6.

IF VILLANOVA BEATS NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINA	FG%	FT%	3P%	TO	TREB	PTS
Tyler Hansbrough	44%	83%	34%	2.1	7.9	18.9
Ty Lawson	45%	79%	36%	2.5	2.9	15.3
Wayne Ellington	40%	78%	31%	2.2	4.7	14.4
Danny Green	38%	84%	32%	2.4	5.2	12.2
Deon Thompson	41%	60%	--	1.4	4.6	7.5
Ed Davis	44%	59%	--	1.2	6.0	5.7
TEAM TOTALS	41%	76%	31%	12.6	35.2	77.0

VILLANOVA	FG%	FT%	3P%	TO	TREB	PTS
Dante Cunningham	52%	72%	7%	2.7	7.3	17.9
Scottie Reynolds	42%	82%	39%	2.5	3.8	15.3
Dwayne Anderson	48%	81%	35%	1.9	6.5	12.6
Corey Fisher	44%	80%	37%	1.9	2.4	11.4
Corey Stokes	43%	87%	43%	1.1	3.6	9.9
Reggie Redding	44%	68%	31%	1.6	5.6	7.4
TEAM TOTALS	46%	77%	38%	13.1	35.6	84.6

When North Carolina won in simulations, the Tar Heels had the edge in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage and, most importantly, were plus-5.3 on the boards. When you combine the rebounding edge with a 3.7 turnover edge, the Tar Heels got nine more possessions out of these categories. Greater offensive efficiency (higher shooting percentages) combined with more possessions can result in an easy Carolina win.

IF NORTH CAROLINA BEATS VILLANOVA

NORTH CAROLINA	FG%	FT%	3P%	TO	TREB	PTS
Tyler Hansbrough	50%	84%	39%	1.9	8.8	20.4
Ty Lawson	51%	81%	43%	2.3	3.2	17.9
Wayne Ellington	45%	79%	38%	2.0	5.2	16.8
Danny Green	44%	87%	39%	2.2	5.6	14.3
Deon Thompson	47%	64%	--	1.2	4.9	8.6
Ed Davis	51%	61%	--	1.0	6.4	6.7
TEAM TOTALS	47%	78%	38%	11.3	38.3	88.6

VILLANOVA	FG%	FT%	3P%	TO	TREB	PTS
Dante Cunningham	47%	69%	3%	3.1	6.9	16.4
Scottie Reynolds	35%	81%	32%	2.8	3.3	13.2
Dwayne Anderson	42%	79%	28%	1.1	6.1	10.8
Corey Fisher	37%	79%	29%	2.1	2.2	9.9
Corey Stokes	35%	86%	35%	1.2	3.2	8.2
Reggie Redding	38%	67%	25%	1.9	5.3	6.6
TEAM TOTALS	40%	75%	30%	15.0	33.0	74.0

Spread 'Em

The Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games were filled with blowouts. Other than Pittsburgh's games against Xavier and Villanova and the Kansas-Michigan State game, every game ended with a final margin of more than 10 points. The average point spread in those 12 games was 4.4, yet the average final margin was 13.4.

We are left with four very good teams, and most experts will predict close games. But if there are close games Saturday, it will be a surprise. For the season, when a team was favored by four or fewer points, the average final margin was 8.91. This is not much less than when teams are favored by 7.5 or fewer points -- 9.34 average final margin.

How Has AccuScore Performed?

Now that you know what a victory for each team will look like in the final box score, you probably want to know which team to take. You can find those simulations here.

In the meantime, our predictions for both these teams have been pretty good all season. On point spread predictions, AccuScore's predictions have generated profits for both teams:

TEAM	ACCUSCORE POINT SPREAD RECORD
Villanova	21 Right, 11 Wrong, 65.6% accurate, +890 Units (110 risk per)
North Carolina	17 Right, 15 Wrong, 53.1% accurate, +50 Units
COMBINED	38 Right, 26 Wrong, 59.4% accurate, +940 Units

For the record, here is AccuScore's over/under prediction records for these two teams. Both of these teams have generated profits.

TEAM	ACCUSCORE POINT SPREAD RECORD
North Carolina	20 Right, 13 Wrong, 60.6% accurate, +570 Units (110 risk per)
Villanova	18 Right, 12 Wrong, 60.0% accurate, +480 Units
COMBINED	38 Right, 25 Wrong, 60.3% accurate, +1050 Units

Adam Lucas on Marcus Ginyard

2009-04-01T12:27:00.002-04:00

Adam Lucas wrote a good article on why Marcus is still such a big part of this team, despite being out with an injury. Check it out here.
He makes a good point; although Marcus can't get on the game floor, he can play in practice, which really makes Danny and Wayne step up their game on off days. I wonder how much that may have contributed to Wayne's recent offensive burst.

Calipari Takes Kentucky Job

2009-03-31T21:04:00.004-04:00

The only reason this is news on this blog is because I spent about an hour of work today photoshopping this picture as an April Fool's Day joke ("TRAITOR ROY"). Thanks, John Calipari. Just another reason to hate Kentucky.

Shocker: Dook selling out to win

2009-03-31T17:27:00.003-04:00

The Observer blog has a great in-depth look at dook's recruiting struggles in recent years- and you have to love the title: Recruiting Wall a desperate act by Dook.

"Since Duke's most recent Final Four appearance ('04), UNC has been to the Final Four three times, with one title in the bag and another just 80 minutes away.

That's why Duke is back in the one-and-done business. Right or wrong, it's that simple."

Or You Could Mix Dark Blue with White...

2009-03-31T14:43:00.003-04:00

Chapel Hill police are asking paint stores to restrict the sale of Carolina Blue paint this week.

I was on Franklin Street in 2005 and I don't remember people running around painting things. Maybe they should restrict the sale of fire, wooden chairs, and cars...because that should be the larger concern.

Looking Ahead

2009-03-31T13:54:00.005-04:00

Just a heads up to everyone... Tomorow, April 1st, is the 2009 High School McDonald's All American Game. Carolina has 4 players in the game this year, 3 on the East team and 1 on the West team. On the East are John Henson, and David and Travis Wear. On the West is Dexter Strickland. Carolina leads all schools with 4 McDonald's All American recruits. Duke, Villanova, and Oklahoma each have two recruits in the game. The ACC has 9 of the 21 decided players (Georgia Tech, FSU, and Clemson each have one). It should be fun to watch. John Henson is supposed to be Carolina's best recruit, and is considered by many to maybe have the most upside in any player graduating in 2009. Keep an eye on him. In the off season, we'll have a lot more on these guys, including personal interviews (not really).

On The Map

2009-03-31T13:47:00.002-04:00

The Charlotte Observer is conducting a fun, useless mapping poll of sorts, asking Heels fans to post their locations in the comments section of this page in order to...well, I'm not really sure why, but they put pins in those locations on the map. I guess it shows the strength of the Tar Heel Nation?

An interesting idea, at least.

Mandatory Tuesday Reading

2009-03-31T09:53:00.002-04:00

Okay, the ubiquitous tarheelblue.com put up their Tuesday Mailbag and Tuesday Talking Points. Read the talking points, they're really interesting. Here's the coolest, I thought:

The last time an ACC team other than Carolina advanced to at least the Elite Eight was 2004, Roy Williams's first season. This year marks the fourth time in the six-year Williams era that Carolina is the last remaining entry from the ACC in the NCAA tournament. In that span, league teams have made six appearances in the Elite Eight; Carolina owns four of those six appearances.

We knew it all along, but Carolina has really become the only reason people talk about the ACC over the past couple years. T-minus 4 days until the Final Four...

Oklahoma Post Game Thoughts

2009-03-30T20:17:00.002-04:00

Yeah, I'm a little late on this. Whatever. I've just been too elated about the 72-60 win. Carolina shot around 51%, but only took 51 shots; the team averages about 66 per game on the rest of the season. So, Oklahoma managed to really slow the Tarheels down, but still couldn't beat them. Their dismal 3 point shooting (2 for 19) certainly didn't help. But by no means did the Heels play a great offensive game. They had 13 total assists to 12 turnovers, as well as fouling 19 times; Carolina averages 18 assists, 12 turnovers, and 16 fouls.
Defensively, Carolina was exceptional. They caused 20 fouls, 15 turnovers (to 9 assists), and held Oklahoma to 44% shooting. That's 60 total points for a team that averages 79 ppg. Oklahoma definitely missed some open shots, but at some point, you have to attribute it to Carolina's defense.
What about the disappearance of Tyler Hansbrough? 8 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 rebounds. Not a terrible line, but not great for him. But he only took 4 shots... that begs the question as to whether or not Tyler was really in the game plan. And, this is just speculation, but I think there's no way Roy would create a gameplan like that. Tyler has been the centerpiece of this offense for 4 years. So, what do we attribute his absense to? I really have no idea... please, if you have some insight, leave a comment, because I'm really clueless. Its not like everyone else on the team was shooting lights out. Maybe his foul trouble had a lot to do with it. But Tyler is great about not fouling, so you'd think he wouldn't change his game just because he picked up 2 fouls. Any ideas?
And, well, Tyler, we <3 you, but...

That's funny stuff.

Hansbrough AP All-American...Again

2009-03-30T16:54:00.002-04:00

Tyler became only the third Tar Heel (Phil Ford, Michael Jordan) to repeat as a first-team AP All-American. Ty Lawson was selected to the second-team, but keep in mind- voting occurred before the tournament began.

Regardless, it's more than a bit ridiculous that 21 of the 71 voters didn't feel Hansbrough was a first-teamer. Seems like folks are spending too much time reading Stephen A. Smith and not enough time reading Alex Hurst.

Here's the complete article.

Reggie says Tyler Hansbrough will save US Economy

2009-03-30T13:23:00.002-04:00

Check out Reggie Miller on the Dan Patrick radio show here

Miller thinks that Blake Griffin is nowhere near 6-foot-10 and will be an undersized NBA power forward and that Tyler Hansbrough will have a better pro career than Griffin.

I didn't go that far, but generally I feel that Hansbrough is already being undervalued as a pro for reasons beyond his control.

If we're going by the stats in college, Blake is a beast. But, so was Michael Beasley and he's not really taking the league by storm.

If I understand Reggie correctly, he thinks Tyler will have similar success to a Luke Walton type player, who gets drafted to a good team, gets decent playing time, earns more, improves his game, and gets a great contract when it's time. With that, I definitely agree.

Psycho T-minus 5 days Roundup

2009-03-30T12:18:00.002-04:00

A sampling of the buzz as the run-up to the Final Four begins:

- The Heels were in their trouble range...and it was never close.
- Spitting in the River and Welcome Back Danny!
- Best UNC PG...ever?
- If you thought Blake Griffin was big...
- And that's why North Carolina will win it all in Detroit.
- If you're not an ESPN Insider, you won't be able to view this article, but just know that the Nova breakdown was not nearly as favorable to us:

"The Heels may not be so lucky in their Final Four meeting with well-balanced Villanova. The Wildcats get sizable contributions from their top seven players, with any one of them capable of stepping up for 15-plus points on a given night. Villanova has no one player as talented as Griffin, but the Cats have made that a virtue, and they'll be very hard to shut down. Of course, the same can be said for the Tar Heels."

- At least SportsNation has our back.
- Just try not to get too bored.

Chapel Hill or Bust

2009-03-29T20:21:00.018-04:00

I should be working on a school paper, but all I can think about is what we are going to do in Chapel Hill next weekend (a trip which will hopefully extend through Tuesday, *knock on wood*).

Chapel Hill is awesome enough in the springtime, but in the springtime when it's tournament time AND the Heels are going to the Final Four....well, there's just no better place to be. So for everyone who's making the sojourn back down to the southern part of heaven to watch the game(s), here's our list of things to get in while you're in town.

First and foremost, we'll be heading straight to Top of the Hill for some much-needed and dearly missed, Old Well White. Anytime I think that a Blue Moon might suffice (because, unfortunately you can't get your hands on the Top O brews up here), I'm painfully reminded that it's just not the same. Maybe it's really girlie and, frankly, I don't really care. You can tell a lot about what kind of Tar Heel someone is by their Top O beer of choice. Whether you'll be drinking an Old Well White or a Leaderboard Lager, get to Top O and grab a seat out on the balcony, people watch down on Franklin St. for a few hours and get psyched for the game.

Old. Well. White. The Top O Scene

We'll most likely be going to 411 for dinner on Saturday night. Anyone who went to school in Chapel Hill knows that this was the go-to place to bring your parents when they were in town. I was never one to venture down to West Franklin all that much, but the food is deelish, the wine list is pretty good and it's definitely worth the "trip." For the less-civilized, late night rounds, Jimmy John's more or less speaks for itself. Why are there no franchises in the northeast? We'll have 7 Italian Night Clubs with hot peppers, please. (Although B*Skis is a very very close second).

Now for the most obvious question: where to watch the game? After it became clear tonight during the OK game that we'd be making the trip for the Final Four, the response to this question was pretty much a resounding "Not Spanky's." I still have nightmares about being in the upstairs at Spanky's watching us get put away by Kansas last year. Top O would be ideal, except that the TVs aren't great and they probably require you to put down a silly deposit and your first born child to reserve a spot to stand in line to maybe get a table. No thanks. What does that leave? Hams? Potentially. My personal preference would be to watch it at He's Not Here if they're showing the game on the outdoor projector like they have done in the past. And if we don't come out on top, at least we'll have Blue Cups to drown our sorrows in.

Blue Cups!

Finally, while the bookstore will probably be packed with everyone and their mom, you know Johnny T-Shirts will have a good variety of Final Four t-shirts and your other various Carolina trinkets. Somehow, I'm pretty sure that I'll use the "How often am I in Chapel Hill anymore now" rationale and come out with a fight-song playing bottle-opener or other equally useless thing.

Wanting this t-shirt. Singing pen? Yes, please!

Pack up your baby blue and get excited, it's Chapel Hill or bust!

"And sometimes when the Springtime comes, and the sifting moonlight falls They'll think again of this night here and of these old brown walls Of white Old Well, and of Old South with bell's deep booming tone, They'll think again of Chapel Hill and thinking, come back home." -Thomas Wolfe

Micah: Are you convinced yet?

Jeff Capel

2009-03-28T12:05:00.003-04:00

Jeff Capel is the coach of Oklahoma. If you remember his name, here's why (oh, and if Jonathon or Alex removes this clip from the post, I can't blame them, so youtube "The Capel Shot").

I hope our players have seen this clip.

Oh, by the way. That shot sent it to overtime, but Carolina won that game.

Peaking at the Right Time - Thoughts on The Gonzaga Game

2009-03-28T10:53:00.003-04:00

Last night, Carolina dismantled Gonzaga 98-77. But it wasn't even as close as the score would indicate. The game was over with about 10 minutes to go in the first half. Carolina shot 11-19 (58%!!) from 3 point range, 53% for all field goals, out rebounded Gonzaga by 40-28, and had 23 (!!!) assists to the Zags 10. Danny Green seemed to continue on his upward shooting trend, but no one is going to complain about his playing. Check out his stat line: 13 points, 3 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals, and 2 blocks. He didn't NEED to rebound- Tyler had 10, Wayne had 7 (who has become a rebounding machine, by the way), Ed had 5.
Carolina had assists on 63% of their baskets (23 of 36). Which means its time to talk about Ty Lawson. Ty had 9 assists to 1 turnover. That's absolutely absurd. About Ty, Mark Few, the Gonzaga coach, had this to say: "The toe injury might have helped Ty Lawson," Gonzaga coach Mark Few said. "He's playing at a great pace right now. He's not forcing anything." And he's right. Ty was flawless. All of a sudden he seems to have immaculate court vision, and is making the right decision EVERY time. It's been unbelievable to watch, and its helping everyone on the court. The ball movement of this team has become outstanding, and they relentlessly pass the ball until they find the open man.
The lone dark spot for the team was their 55.6% (15-27) free throw shooting. Mostly, that number was because of Deon (1 for 4), Ed (1 for 4), and Drew II (0-3). I think that's probably not something to worrry about. It'll average out, but I mean, if you're shooting that well from the field, you probably won't need those free throws anyway.
By the way, that game was Carolina's 99th all-time NCAA tournament win, which breaks the tie with Kentucky, leaving Carolina as the all time leading NCAA tournament game winner. That's pretty cool. Apparently Kentucky actually has 100 wins, but two don't count because of violations. Also, I think Carolina is about 7 wins back from Kentucky on the all time wins list. So we can't catch them this year, but maybe next...
Oh, and Ty said his toe didn't really tighten up until the end of the game. Hopefully this day of rest will be all he needs. Or maybe he's been faking the whole thing...
Anyway, next up: Oklahoma. Sunday, 5:05 pm. More on that later.

More on the Flex Offense

2009-03-27T12:43:00.002-04:00

I'm not an expert on basketball stratergy, but we've been getting hundreds and hundreds of emails asking, "Jimmy, what is this flex offense you speak of?" Through my extensive Google research, I've found a site here that explains pretty simply how to run the flex. It'll help you figure out what you're watching against this Gonzaga team that's become so good at this relatively simple offense.
Step 1
Set up the offense. To run the flex offense the point guard will bring the ball up on the left side of the floor. The shooting guard should be positioned along side of him to the right. The small forward is in the left corner with the center on the left block and the power forward on the right block.

Step 2

Trigger the offense with a pass. The point guard should pass the ball to the shooting guard. When the ball is passed, the center will set a back screen for the small forward and the small forward will cut to the middle of the lane looking for a pass from the shooting guard. This is the basic "flex" cut that the offense is named after. As the small forward cuts through the power forward should move out to the three point line on the right side to make room for the small forward to take his place on the right block.

Step 3

Screen the screener. The next step when you run the flex offense is for the point guard to set a down screen for the center who had just set a pick for the small forward. The center then flashes to the free throw line. If he is open, the shooting guard should pass to him. If not he should run all the way out and replace the point guard at the top of the offense.

Step 4

Reset the offense. The formation is now flipped from when the offense started. The shooting guard has not moved yet, but the center is now up top, the point guard is on the offside baseline, the small forward is on the right block and the power forward is now on the ball side baseline.

Step5

Flip the play. Now the offense runs the same play, just to the opposite direction. The shooting guard passes to the center, the small forward sets a back screen for the power forward who cuts through the lane, the shooting guard sets a down screen for the small forward and we are once again set up in the same formation as we were at the beginning of the play. Players have shifted spots, but the same basic spots on the floor are occupied.

Step6

Run the flex offense over and over. This is a very basic offense, but if the screens are set properly, there should be ample opportunities to get open shots. If it is run correctly no one will be able to dominate the ball and everyone will get a chance to score.

There you go. Now you can run the flex offense flawlessly.

Happy Dook Lost Day!

2009-03-27T11:48:00.003-04:00

Yay! Dook lost! And ESPN is pissing on their grave!

Toe Update

2009-03-26T18:15:00.002-04:00

From Adam Lucas' Memphis Notebook arrives some not-so-good news.

"I asked him this morning (about the toe)," Roy Williams said. "I said, `On a scale of 1 to 10, 10 being great, how was it yesterday?' He said it was a 6. I asked him how it was today. He said a 6. I asked how it was on Saturday before the LSU game. He said an 8. It has taken a long time to heal. When it happened, they told me it was going to be this way. Being more positive, I was hoping it'd be better by this time. This time it hasn't swollen, but it has been painful."

How Do The Heels Stack Up?

2009-03-26T13:26:00.001-04:00

ESPN Sweet 16 Power Rankings

2009-03-26T12:08:00.002-04:00

The March to Motown blog at ESPN.com released their Sweet 16 Power Rankings and third round predictions. Though a bunch of their personalities picked UNC to win it all, this is the first definitive post I've seen in a while that indicates they believe the Heels to be the team to beat. A spritz:

1. North Carolina
The Tar Heels struggled to pull away from LSU in their second-round game, but point guard Ty Lawson more than answered questions about his lingering toe injury. Unless Lawson re-injures his right toe, the Tar Heels might be the team to beat the rest of the way. No other team has as much inside-outside balance or overall depth.

And against Gonzaga:

North Carolina 87, Gonzaga 73

Love/Hate with Gottlieb and Fraschilla

2009-03-26T12:04:00.002-04:00

And no, I'm not saying I love Doug Gottlieb and hate Fran Fraschilla. I hate both those guys. But they breakdown what there is to love and hate about each of the remaining 16 teams in the tourney on ESPN.com. A little Carolina taster:

North Carolina

What I Like: The transition game
Transition basketball and Ty Lawson are basically interchangeable. Without the 5-11 junior, the Tar Heels don't have a dominant running game. UNC scored more than 90 points 15 times prior to Lawson's injury at the end of the ACC regular season, in large part because of his blinding coast-to-coast quickness. In the two ACC tournament games without Lawson, Roy Williams' club averaged 75 points a game, and in the loss to Florida State it had a season-low 64 possessions.

It's clear that the odds of North Carolina winning it all improve with Lawson back in the lineup. He has become a more dangerous outside shooter (47 percent on 3s), gets to the rim and finishes at a 57 percent rate inside the arc and is responsible for more than one-third of the team's assists when he is on the floor.

What I Don't Like: Ty Lawson and the overuse of depth
If Lawson is not healthy, this team's chances of advancing become much slighter. Quite simply, Lawson is the straw that stirs the drink. Additionally, Roy Williams has a tendency to over-sub his players and under-utilize timeouts. If you can capitalize on a weak lineup against UNC, the Tar Heels can surrender momentum like they did when they blew a 16-point lead against Maryland. The depth, however, allows the Heels to make more shots late due to their much fresher legs … or so they say.

Gonzaga Diet Game Guide

2009-03-26T09:14:00.004-04:00

Carolina vs. Gonzaga, Friday, April 27th at 10:00 pm (wtf CBS), in Memphis. The line is now Carolina -8.5, with the money line at -400 (damn), and the o/u still 162. Carolina is coming off a 84-70 win over LSU, a game that was closer than the score would indicate. The bench only scored 9 points that game, all of them from Ed Davis (on 4-6 shooting). Three starters (Hansbrough, Lawson, and Ellington) were in double figures. The entire team shot 54.2% from the field, but had 5 shots fewer than LSU because of their rebounding. Hansbrough didn't have a great game (for him), with 15 points on 6-11 shooting, 8 rounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, with 3 fouls and 3 turnovers. He also disappeared in the second half of the game. Luckily, that's when the old Ty Lawson showed up, scoring 23 points on 7 for 13 shooting. Ellington also played well, again, with 23 points on 9 for 19 shooting. And, also again, Danny Green had a poor shooting night, going 3 for 10. Wayne has more than picked up Danny's slack against lesser teams, but against the high scoring Zags, Carolina will really need Danny as an offensive threat.
Gonzaga barely escaped Western Kentucky in their last game, winning 83-81. All five of their starters scored in double figures (more on this later), and they had 13 bench points from 3 players. Really, Gonzaga escaped on a last minute 3 pointer by Austin Daye. Indicative of both Gonzaga's unwillingness to defend, and of the out of their minds play of WKU, the Zags allowed WKU to shoot 48% from 3 point range, which is really just absurd. WKU scored almost 45% of its points from beyond the arc. Gonzaga does share the ball well, and has 4 (almost 6) players averaging double figures. They have a lot of scoring threats. Additionally, they run the f lex offense, which has given Carolina trouble in the past (see: Maryland, BC).
Now, a lot of stats would lead you to believe Gonzaga is a solid defending team. They give up around 62 ppg; however, when you look at teams from the RPI top 25, they give up just about 80 ppg. They do force around 7 steals per game and 5 blocks per game. But those are averages throughout the whole season, and most of their competition has been in WCC play, which is not a very good conference (lets be honest, it sucks). They're only 3-3 vs. RPI top 25 opponents (wins against Tennessee twice, and Oklahoma State once, and losses to UConn, Memphis, and Utah), with a strength of schedule of 92 (worse than LSU's). They're ranked 26th in RPI, which really says they got a higher seed than they may have deserved; probably because a.) they're riding an 11 game win streak that managed to get them a #10 ranking the AP poll, and b.) they're Gonzaga. They're not quite a mid-major, but not a BCS team; people root for them because they're an original Cinderella.
It should be an interesting game. I'm interested to see how Roy calls the defense, because the flex offense is really geared towards beating man to man, with a lot of ball screens and pick and rolls. Is it possible Roy could opt for a zone? Probably not. But I hope he's willing to try. I think a key matchup will be the front court battle between Deon/Ed/Tyler and Josh Heytvelt and Austin Daye, the Zags big men, who both average between 13-15 ppg and 7 rpg. They're often the first and second options for the Zags, so denying them the ball could go a long way towards forcing the Zags into shots they don't want.
As always, we'll try to update with news on Ty's toe. It sounds like its doing much better; but hey, even if he's in pain, as long as he plays like he did last game, who cares?

PG contingency plan

2009-03-25T11:53:00.002-04:00

Ty Lawson has said he will play Friday against Gonzaga. But with all the uncertainty and ever-increasing stakes, don't think Roy's going ahead without a plan- he has a secret weapon.

Pop the Champaign!

2009-03-24T17:50:00.004-04:00

Boy, I sure do love watching this commercial 5-6 times every time I turn on an NCAA game.

I can't imagine Illinois fans love it. How do you feel Jeffrey?

AP: Lawson to play vs. Zags

2009-03-24T16:04:00.002-04:00

I don't think there was any doubt that he would play, but the good news is that the swelling after the LSU game was "nothing like what followed the regular-season finale against Duke that forced him to the sideline." Story here.

The Difference Maker

2009-03-24T12:00:00.021-04:00

In modern pro sports, compiling and analyzing statistics is becoming ever more critical to teams' effectiveness in evaluating players. In baseball, some believe that stats can be quantified better at an individual level and even measure players from different eras, where in basketball, stats are still being debated. Major League Baseball uses the minor leagues along with detailed individual stats to make decisions on which players will succeed at a major league level and how much to pay those players. Generally, this system works. The NFL uses different tests, college performance on the field, the combine, and team's individual evaluation to evaluate players for many different types of positions. In the NBA, since draft camps are usually voluntary, and only a handful of guys work out for individual teams (with varying results), most of the evaluation is based on a player's success in college/high school/abroad.

Let's focus on college.

The NBA Draft provides a consensus on how the professional league evaluates college talent, and chooses the players it feels will succeed. Over the years, different accepted trends have become staples of the draft.

1) You can't teach height
2) Draft based on need (though maybe not always - see Atlanta #2)
3) Upside potential > experience

Now obviously these ideas are not always adhered, but most teams agree on what constitutes a bad player, a good player, and a great player. And a lot of that basis has to do with the statistics accumulated in college.

Where am I going with all of this? Let's get to it.

I've pasted below the stats for five players. Four of those players were drafted in the top five of the NBA Draft in their respective years. The last player is still active in college. Each player played at least two years of college basketball and the stats listed here are career numbers. Finally, all five players are between 6'9" and 6'10", weigh in at or around 250lbs and play the power forward position.

Look at these stats. The leader for each category is highlighted in green. What do you see?

From the first four, the NBA clearly saw a player that was one of the five best that year, and one would assume if a player achieved those statistical levels in a college career, they too would be considered one of the best. I mean, all the players averaged 10+ points, though the currently active college player averages over 20. All the players averaged at least 7.5 rebounds with varying assist and steal figures, each around 1. All four NBA players averaged at least 1 block in college, the active college player did not. All five players have at least 50% FG percentage, though the active college player shot nearly 80% from the free throw line and can hit a 3-pointer. And finally, all five players averaged nearly 1.50 PPS (points per shot), though the active college player tied for the highest of the five with 1.64.

After looking at these stats, what conclusions could reasonably be drawn? I would think that the active college player, based on nearly identical height/weight and equal or better statistics throughout college, would be considered one of the top picks in the draft, whenever he decided to leave college. I mean, what professional team would not want a player who is able to achieve the same numbers as at least four other top 5 NBA draft picks?

Well, the truth may surprise you. Click here to see the players names.

Now stop. Before you think what you've been conditioned to think. Before you rationalize the reasons why he is not as good as the other four guys there, or why you know instinctually that he will not be as good a pro. Just stop. Is your judgement clouded? What exactly makes him less valuable? What makes him different from these four guys? He's just as tall as they are, he weighs the same, his numbers are nearly identical across the board and he even offers some talents that these guys didn't. Oh wait, now you see it. You know why you think he's not as good. You see the difference. I don't even need to say it.

Now ask yourself, is that fair? Is it right? Maybe he's not as good as those four guys--but tell me, is that really the reason?

What good is money if it can't inspire terror in your fellow man?

2009-03-24T09:44:00.003-04:00

While I don't condone off shore gambling sites (note: this is not true), I noticed a little something about the lines for the Gonzaga game. The over/under for the game is set at 162 right now. During the regular season, Carolina was over 17 times out of 28 (2 games had no o/u), which is 60%. But when the line was set at 162 or below, Carolina was over 11 times out of 14 (78%). I predict the o/u rising steadily until game time. Especially because I think this Gonzaga team doesn't tire easily, and there should be plenty of running until the game ends. Anyway. If you lose money, you probably deserve it, for listening to me.

Mandatory Tuesday Reading

2009-03-24T08:40:00.003-04:00

This should be automatic for most of you... but in case you need a reminder.
Tarheel Blue Mailbag
Tuesday Talking Points

A little disconcerting... "Danny Green has shot better than 50 percent from the field in just two of his career 13 NCAA tournament games."

Hansbrough Named Naismith Finalist

2009-03-23T20:50:00.002-04:00

We all saw this coming. Register to vote by texting VOTE to 51234. The other finalists are Blake Griffin, Hasheem Thabeet, and DeJuan Blair. For a supposedly talentless draft, that's a pretty dominant list of players. More stuff here. From that article:

ABOUT THE FINALISTS
DeJuan Blair: The only unanimous All-BIG EAST First Team selection, Blair averaged 15.6 points and a league-leading 12.4 rebounds per game. He ranks among national leaders in offensive rebounding (first), total rebounding (fourth) and field goal percentage (16th). The 6-7 sophomore and Pittsburgh native helped lead the Panthers to a 28-3 record and the school's first-ever No. 1 ranking.
Blake Griffin: The 6-10 sophomore led the Big 12 in scoring (22.1 ppg), rebounding (14.2 rpg) and field goal percentage (.634) while ranking fourth in blocked shots (1.3 bpg). The Big 12 coaches' preseason choice for player of the year, Griffin has set a single-season OU record with his 25 double-doubles (three shy of the Big 12 record). He has already set a Big 12 single-season mark with his 425 rebounds. The Oklahoma City native also has 13 games of at least 20 points and 15 rebounds this year, eclipsing the previous league record of seven.
Tyler Hansbrough: Hansbrough was a first-team All-ACC performer who has led North Carolina to a 30-4 season and regular-season ACC championship, while averaging 21.4 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. The 6-9 senior from Poplar Bluff, Mo., helped the Tar Heels gain a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament's South Regional. The reigning Naismith Trophy winner is the third Tar Heel (Michael Jordan, 1984 and Antawn Jamison, 1998) and the 16th player from the ACC to win the award. He is a three-time finalist for the Naismith Trophy.
Hasheem Thabeet: The BIG EAST Defensive Player of the Year and first-team all-conference selection averaged 13.6 points and 10.8 rebounds per game. His average of 4.5 blocks per game was tops in the BIG EAST and second in the nation. The 7-3 junior center from Tanzania helped lead the Huskies to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Other notable men's college player of the year winners include Ralph Sampson (1981-1983), Larry Bird (1979), Patrick Ewing (1985) and Christian Laettner (1992).

Take A Deep Breath

2009-03-23T14:26:00.002-04:00

So the first week of the tournament's over. Time to regroup and assess what happened this weekend. Tar Heels rout? Check. Tar Heels gut-check? Hip-check. Bracket fucked? Triple check. This week's outlook? Chalk.

The Heels plan to leave the friendly confines of the Greensboro Coliseum (did you think the dookies cheering against Tyler would make him play worse?) and head for Memphis, where 4th seeded Gonzaga awaits, possibly followed by either 3 seed Syracuse or 2 seed Oklahoma. The road seems treacherous. Everyone and their mentally-impaired (yet perfectly functional with a keyboard) brother will be talking and chatting and blogging this week about the pitfalls that await Roy's boys.

Don't listen to them.

Don't listen to me, either, for that matter- the point of this blog is that three restless Heels fans with access to the internet can report on their favorite team about as well as the well-connected sports press. We're biased and we say things to make ourselves feel better (or worse, Alex) because that's what people do when the stakes are high and they have to wait four more days for the fucking game.

But I digress- don't listen to anybody. The Tar Heels are in the Sweet Sixteen. If they play as well as they did against LSU and Radford, they've got four more games and a bunch of nets to cut down. If they play as well as they did against Maryland back in February... I'm not going to finish that thought. We all know what will happen.

But even that won't happen until Friday night. Between now and then, the Heels are still one of the best teams in the country with a shot to be THE best. That's all we know for sure. Everything else, the buzzing and commentating, is speculation. It's the same type of speculation that created $4/gallon gas last summer. It's the type of speculation that is spouted profusely because it's supposed make the game more exciting. It's the type of speculation that won't hold up in a court of law.

This will: for the next four days, the Heels are invincible. They will not lose. The Zags can't beat them, though if they tried, they'd need better columns than a State fan could write to have any chance. This won't cut it.

So take a deep breath. Catch up on the shows you DVRed. Sleep soundly every night. And save all your anxious energy for the things that really affect the outcome of the game: superstitions and screaming at the TV.

Maybe this picture of Erin Andrews showing her true colors will help you relax.

Watch Your Mouth, Ric Bucher

2009-03-22T20:53:00.003-04:00

ESPN Insiders were treated to an article, written by Ric Bucher, about how NBA GMs view March Madness. Here's a paragraph from that article.

And there's one more factor that makes tourney scouting a risky business. Many general managers believe that some college coaches don't play their best young players as much as the players' talent warrants, in order to keep them in school longer. But once teams get to the tournament, winning becomes the primary focus, and their playing time increases. If they respond with a great tournament run, as May's teammate, Marvin Williams, did as a freshman in 2005, the thinking goes, "Man, he could've been doing this all year." Not surprisingly, Williams vaulted up draft boards.

I think the insinuation that Roy held Marvin back from starting because he was trying to hide his talent is a little ridiculous. Roy is a student of Dean Smith. In the Dean Smith era of college basketball, one and done freshmen weren't really in anyone's consciousness, so holding back a freshman in the hopes of keeping him another year would be an absurd idea. Dean Smith gave playing time preferentially to upperclassmen because they've earned it, not because he's trying to hurt a player's career.
That article also, by the way, uses Sean May as evidence of a player being overly touted because of a dominating March/April performance, and then being a bust in the NBA. Sean May is 24 years old. Let's give him a couple more years before we decide he's a bust.

Some Thoughts on the LSU Game

2009-03-22T14:09:00.011-04:00

-Ty Lawson can still dominate, even when he's hurt. He clearly in a lot of pain, and during the press conference afterward, said he could feel his toe swelling. He said he felt a pop in his toe in the first half, which could have been dislodged scar tissue, but could also have been something more serious like a ligament or a tendon. My guess is they'll do an MRI to double check, but hopefully this week he can get back to practice.
-Ed Eazy-E (you heard it here first) Davis, once again, had a great game. He had 9 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 blocks in 25 minutes. That's more rebounding per minute (.28 rebounds per minute) than Tyler (.26 rebounds per minute) or Deon (.24 rebounds per minute) have averaged throughout the year. Ed's yearlong average is a spectacular .36 rebounds per minute. That means if he were averaging Hansbrough style minutes (30.1 mpg), he'd be pulling down over 10 rebounds a game. Anyway, despite losing the rebounding battle to LSU, Carolina pulled down more rebounds when it mattered in the final 12 minutes (I said rebounds 9 times in 5 sentences). Rebounds (10).
-If you haven't realized, Ed has taken over Deon's minutes. Deon played just 15 minutes to Ed's 25. Considering how well Deon has been playing, you get the feeling that Roy sees something special in Eazy-E. Drew II played only 3 minutes, despite also having played well in Ty's absence.
-Roy has had the reputation of being inflexible in the way he coaches. I've personally criticized him in the past for his unwillingness to use timeouts, overuse of bench, and other minor, nitpicky aspects of his coaching. But against LSU, he used timeouts early in the second half when LSU began to make their run (and by the way, that's when Carolina began to guard again; in the timeout, Roy looked at Danny, Tyler, and Bobby, and asked them if this was how they wanted to end their careers). He's been more frugal with his bench, and he's become more willing to take playing time from upperclassmen and give it to freshman. And you have me to thank for that (maybe not).
-Next up: Friday, March 27th against Gonzaga. We'll have plenty about them, but as some of you may remember, this could vaguely be a revenge game for Carolina. A lot of players on both teams are still around, so maybe a video of that game should be looped in the Dean Dome while the Carolina players practice this week. Just a thought.

Ty Saves the Day

2009-03-21T19:46:00.002-04:00

Here at the ontheheels headquarters, tensions were running high as LSU tied the game up at 63. Jimmy began to sob, Alex filled the snack bowls, and Jonathon got drunk. But thanks to the spectacular play of Ty Lawson, Carolina managed to win by 14; meanwhile keeping LSU to a mere 70 points. Their plan of running with Carolina didn't really come to fruition. There actually wasn't too many transition points throughout the whole game, but even so, Carolina won the points off turnovers battle. Ty ended the game with 23 points, 6 assists, 3 steals, and 1 rebound, all on a painful toe that kept him grimacing the whole game.
Meanwhile, Carolina held LSU to 45% FG shooting. Carolina's defense forced 15 turnovers and had 5 blocks. As thrilling as Wayne and Danny's clutch 3s were, seeing Deon Thompson guarding his man out past the 3 point line and Tyler stealing the ball out at 20 feet was even better. This team decided to guard when it mattered, and we saw the lockdown defense of which this team is capable. I think they've convinced themselves they can overcome any team, talent wise, and from here on out it becomes a matter of execution. And I'll take that over lacking the talent any day.

Ed Davis Profile

2009-03-21T16:21:00.004-04:00

The Charlotte Observer has a good article profiling Easy Ed Davis. He's been playing really well lately and has emerged as Carolina's most important bench player. His success could be vital throughout the tournament on both ends of the floor.

LSU Gameplan: Run

2009-03-21T15:22:00.002-04:00

LSU has decided its going to try to run with Carolina. They're basing their strategy on tapes from UNC's 85-78 loss to BC, in which Tyrese Rice played extremely well and could seemingly score at will. But the real story of that game, in my opinion, was NOT Tyrese Rice; it was Carolina's abysmal 38.4% field goal shooting, and 31.8% 3 point field goal shooting. Every player besides Ed Davis shot below 50%. It's not often all the Heels are playing so terribly at once, so apparently, LSU's strategy is to pray Carolina misses shots. Which, with the way they've been playing, doesn't seem likely. This seems to be a common strategy for out of conference teams playing Carolina, and it hasn't been effective this year. At the very least, it'll make for a fast paced, exciting game.

ACC Teams Afraid of the Dark

2009-03-21T08:58:00.012-04:00

Rise and shine Tar Heel fans. It's game day. Eight hours and 45 minutes until tip-off and I hope you're pumped. Knowing you have a game coming up is a great feeling, one that a number of ACC teams will not be able to feel for quite some time.

After going 3-1 on the first day and a half of tournament play, ACC teams went 0-3 on Saturday night. Big Ten teams won both ACC/B10 matchups by a combined five points. Aside from Carolina, who tends to own the Big Ten in NCAA Tournament play, it seems the Big Ten is winning the Challenge that actually matters. The most surprising ACC loss is #4 seed Wake Forest who got taken out behind the woodshed by Cleveland State. This one wasn't even close, though their tournament performances since 2000 have been underwhelming (at 5-6 overall with one Sweet 16 appearance). So, I don't know about you, but looking at this team (young, inexperienced, struggling down the stretch) and the matchup with Clev. St. (who beat #3 seed Syracuse at home on a buzzer shot), maybe it wasn't such a surprise.

I consider the FSU loss a bigger surprise because in my opinion Wisconsin was the "last team in," not an Arizona squad that has beaten some people and could still beat some more. But the one thing not beating people right now is the ACC, hopefully Carolina is able to change that.

And with the sunset in Greensboro predicted to be 7:32pm, let's make sure we leave no room for doubt. Duke, on the other hand, their tip-off is 8:15pm, and they better hope they have their blankeys.

Number Crunching

2009-03-20T12:49:00.002-04:00

In an article on scout.com, Greg Barnes has done more research than I'm willing to do, so I'll cannibalize his article. He breaks down 2 main correlations to Carolina's success over the past couple of seasons. To start with, an apparently obvious one: field goal percentage. Greg notes that Carolina is 61-1 over the past two seasons when shooting better than 40% from the field; an extremely modest number. Remember, of course, that correlation is not causation, but the logical conclusions from this include a.) Carolina's less than stellar defensive play isn't as much of a concern as we thought, and b.) Carolina really controls its own destiny. Benson has made the argument to me that Carolina's success is dependent on their own play, not the play of the opposing squad (more or less), and this certainly lends some creedence to that argument.
A second factor Greg notes, and even more correlationally significant than the first, is that Carolina is 47-0 when Wayne Ellington shoots 50%+ from the floor. Obviously, that doesn't mean that Wayne is beating teams on his own, but that his success opens up the offense. Roy Williams shrugged the statistic off. "“I would bet that we’re 117-0 when we score more points than the other team, too."
Frankly, I don't read too much into these type of statistics. They're interesting, but they don't really account for much; like your high school stats teacher said a thousand times, correlation is not causation. I think other metrics like Hollinger's PER are more interesting anyway. If you like these sorts of stats though, read Freakonomics.

Friday Games to Watch

2009-03-20T11:33:00.003-04:00

So far, the ACC is 3-1 in tournament games, the lone loss being the upset of Clemson by Michigan. Today, #5 FSU takes on a difficult #12 in Wisconsin at 9:55 pm (damn), #7 BC plays #10 USC at 7:20 pm, and #4 Wake plays #13 Cleveland State at 9:40 pm. The Big East, by the way, is 3-0, while the Big Ten is 2-2. All three conferences initially had 7 teams in the tournament, but most of us would rather watch paint dry than watch the Big Ten.
Anyway, as always, watch the games here. Doing work is for suckers.

LSU Diet Game Guide

2009-03-20T10:01:00.004-04:00

#1 UNC vs. #8 LSU, ~5:45 pm (3/21). Carolina is coming off a thrashing of Radford, even without Ty Lawson, who is still questionable for Saturday's game. As a result, it looks like no one is taking bets on the game yet until an announcement is made about Ty. But you have to assume UNC would be a double digit favorite with Ty, and and probably around a -4 point favorite without him. There will probably be a money line bet either way, but I won't even try to guess what it'll be.
Anyway, Wayne Ellington is coming off a spectacular game, again. I can throw the numbers at you, but I think what stands out most is that he's somehow gained the ability to take over a game. I'm not exactly sure how I'd define that, but its something about him being visible on every single possession. Even off the ball, he garners so much attention that he makes life easier for his teammates. He's certainly making Larry Drew II and Bobby Frasor's jobs MUCH easier in Ty's absence, because he's now providing a slashing threat that no other perimeter player besides Ty can provide.
Tyler "All Time ACC Leading Scorer" Hansbrough, Danny Green, and Ed Davis also played well. Ed posted a career high 15 points. I said yesterday I think Danny needed to have a big game for his confidence; he was 1 for 3 from 3 point range, and 6 for 14 overall, which is not spectacular, but enough for him to remember that he can knock down shots. He also had 10 rebounds and 3 steals. I think Danny's defense could be one of the keys to the LSU game, as one of his assignments will probably be LSU's Marcus Thorton, a big (6'4"), athletic shooting guard who can play just about any position on the floor. Thorton is coming off a huge game against Butler, where he had 30 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 steals, and only 1 turnover. Its well known amongst the Carolina faithful that big guards have given Carolina problems all year; Greivis Vasquez, Toney Douglas, and Tyrese Rice have all had huge games against the Heels that have resulted in defeats.
Okay, now some good new for us all; first, LSU doesn't have much of a bench threat; 65% of their scoring comes from 3 players, and 85% of their scoring comes from their starting 5. Carolina also relies on their starting five for around 85% of their scoring, but the Heels score around 91 ppg, while LSU scores 75. LSU was ranked #20 in the latest poll, and were the SEC Regular Season Champs, but the SEC is arguably the weakest BCS Conference this year, having put only three teams into the NCAA Tournament. LSU's strength of schedule was 85th in DI, extremely low for an 8 seed. Besides Butler, LSU hasn't beaten a single team in the RPI Top 50 all season, posting an 0-3 record. They're also a bad road/neutral site team, with a 7-5 record at these sites.
As for Ty's injury, we await new news with bated breath and aching toes.

Carolina Freebies

2009-03-19T17:34:00.004-04:00

It's not such a secret that come March, free throws often wind up deciding games. Last year, Memphis, an atrocious free throw shooting team (as they are this year), would have won the National Championship if they had shot even just slightly better than the 63% they managed from the line. It's also not such a secret that Tyler Hansbrough has been known to shoot a free throw or two. But he's gotten so good that its almost automatic- he's 68 for 75 (91%) from the line over the past 10 games, and 85.6% on the season, up from 73% his freshman year. Ty Lawson has had a similar jump since his freshman year; he began his UNC career shooting 68%, and is currently up around 81%. Overall, Carolina is shooting 76.1% from the line, making them the 2nd best free throw shooting team in the Tournament, behind only Maryland. Wayne Ellington, on his recent tear, has only had one (slightly) troubling stat; he's 5 for 14 (35%) from the line over the past 5 games. But, I'll tell you what... when he's shooting 60% from the field, as he is now, I think it's okay to have tired arms when at the line. I can almost promise that by the end of this tournament, we'll all appreciate the amount of work these guys have put into their free throw shooting.

By the way, the team free throw shooting jumps to 77.6% if you take out Deon, and almost 80% if you take out Deon AND Ed. I'm jus' sayin.

Quick, Who's the ACC All Time Leading Scorer?

2009-03-19T15:16:00.005-04:00

1. Tyler Hansbrough, UNC (2005-09) 2,789*

2. J.J. Redick, Duke (2003-06) 2,769

3. Dickie Hemric, Wake (1952-55) 2,587

4. Johnny Dawkins, Duke (1983-86) 2,556

5. Rodney Monroe, N.C. State (1988-91) 2,551

6. Bryant Stith, UVa (1989-92) 2,516

7. Christian Laettner, Duke (1989-92) 2,460

8. Mike Gminski, Duke (1977-80) 2,323

9. Jeff Lamp, UVa (1978-81) 2,317

10. David Thompson, N.C. State (1973-75) 2,309

*still active

UNC vs. Radford

2009-03-19T15:09:00.000-04:00

For commenting on the game...

A Brief History of Upsets

2009-03-19T14:11:00.003-04:00

Memphis is currently trailing by 1 with 7:30 to go against CS Northridge. A #2 seed has lost to a #15 seed 4 times: Hampton over Iowa State, 2001, Coppin State over South Carolina in 1997, Santa Clara over Arizona, 1993, and Richmond over Syracuse, 1991. I'm still putting my money on Memphis...

UPDATE: Memphis pulled it off with some solid defense. Too bad... CS Northridge was a couple defensive stops away from history.

Bracket Predictions

2009-03-19T13:08:00.002-04:00

And they're off! Click here to see how I think it's going to go down.

More to come on today's action.

WHY WE HATE DOOK

2009-03-19T12:36:00.002-04:00

Coach K is a dick.

On The Heels of a Deal: T-shirts

2009-03-19T12:01:00.004-04:00

Amazon has some good deals on Tar Heels t-shirts today for less than $15:
North Carolina Tar Heels Oxford Ringer T-Shirt- $8.84-13.64
Soffe University of North Carolina Women's Junior Short Sleeve Tissue Tee- $9.48-10.31
UNC Athletic Oxford Short-Sleeve T-Shirt- $9.78-10.31
North Carolina Tar Heels Ringer T-Shirt- $10.00 - $12.69

Another One Bites the Duh

2009-03-19T11:42:00.003-04:00

Do you really need Forbes to tell you UNC is the most valuable college basketball team? Shouldn't they be focusing their attention on, I don't know, reporting the minutiae of the financial crisis that makes Carolina basketball the only bright spot in too many people's lives right now?

*Rumor has it dook would have been ranked higher than 8th had they not expended so much in refs' "fees" the last 25 years.

Psycho T-minus 4 hours

2009-03-19T10:36:00.002-04:00

Good article today in the Observer, reminding everyone why the Heels are really going to win it all- it's Tyler's last shot, and he won't be denied.

Radford Game Day

2009-03-19T09:37:00.007-04:00

#1 UNC vs. #16 Radford, ~2:50 pm. Game can be watched streaming online here. Ty Lawson will not be playing... but the spread is currently 25 points, and, surprise surprise, there is no money line. Tyler Hansbrough needs 3 points to become the all-time ACC points leader. This could also be an important game for Danny Green to get over his slump, in which he's shot 3 for 25 in his last two games. Deon Thompson has quietly been playing the best basketball of his career, going 16 for 28 (57%) over the past three games, with 17 rebounds. Wayne Ellington has also been on a tear, going 27 for 49 (55%) for the past 4 games, and stuffing the stat sheet with ~ 4 rpg and 3 apg. His defense has also improved off the ball, and his ability to slash to the basket has made him extremely dangerous from anywhere on the court. Larry Drew II has picked up the slack of Ty Lawson's absence, posting a 3.5 to 1 assist to turnover ratio over the past two games, playing 14 and 17 minutes in each ACC tourney game. However, Roy Williams has turned to Bobby Frasor and his senior leadership, to really take over the point guard spot. In the ACC tournament games, Bobby played 37 and 33 minutes. Over the rest of the season, he was averaging closer to 17 minutes per game.
Radford (21-11) is the winner of the Big South conference, the conference in which Virginia Military Institute plays, the only higher scoring team in the country than UNC. Radford's leading scorer, a 6'11" center named Artsiom Parakhouski from Minsk, Belarus, averages a double double, with 16.2 ppg and 11.2 rpg. He's nicknamed Lukashenko's Hope, after his homeland's despot (that's not true). But really, this team shares the ball well, as they have 4 players averaging double figure scoring, and they go nearly 10 deep into their bench. Expect them to try to run.
We'll try to post updates about Ty as they come, as he toes the injury line. Har har. Sorry.
Other ACC games throughout the day:
10 Maryland vs. 7 California at ~2:55 pm.
7 Clemson vs. 10 Michigan at ~7:10 pm.
2 Duke vs. 15 Binghamton at ~9:10 pm.
Florida State and Wake Forest both play tomorrow.

Best/Worst Case Scenarios

2009-03-18T18:12:00.001-04:00

Pat Forde at ESPN peers into the Heels' dreams/nightmares:

North Carolina (1)

Best Case: Ty Lawson's troublesome toe stops throbbing. Opponents start sobbing. Tar Heels bend their knees and play defense for 40 minutes. Then they do it again. And again. And again. That's four times against a weak region, resulting in a Final Four berth. Then they do it again. And again. That's six times, and that equals a national championship. Tyler Hansbrough ties title game against Memphis by scoring while being knocked down an NCAA-record 2,360th time, then wins it on a free throw with no time left. Ol' Roy is classy in victory again, chasing down John Calipari to console him as he did Bruce Weber in 2005. Duke loses to Texas.

Worst Case: Lawson's troublesome toe never fully recovers, and neither do the Heels. They're beaten in the Sweet 16 by Gonzaga, the only team in the region with the talent to trade open shots with Carolina and win. Hansbrough gets no calls after jumping into Gonzaga players an NCAA-record 26 times in a single game. Ol' Roy overuses his bench, gets uptight, loses and gets misty-eyed postgame. Says he's gonna frickin' miss these guys, but does not ramble incoherently the way he did after Kansas loss last year. Because he really won't miss their frickin' lax defense. Duke wins it all.

On The Heels of a Deal

2009-03-18T17:53:00.005-04:00

While not Carolina or basketball related, how many times in life do you find an offer for a "free" Lamborghini?

Williams: “There's a huge, huge probability that Ty will not play."

2009-03-18T16:01:00.002-04:00

Somebody get Alex a paper bag- evidently Ty's looking more doubtful for tomorrow's opening round game against Radford.

My G-G-Generation

2009-03-18T14:28:00.005-04:00

You get the feeling that next six games will define how history judges this team. This generation of Carolina players is as talented as any we’ve seen, but they’re playing through a season of injury and surprising parity. Of course, any team that manages to win a National Championship is judged as better, or at least better remembered. But does losing in the Final Four diminish a team’s talent? Of course not, but college basketball is not the NBA; there often is no “next season.” You have a defined lifetime in college basketball, not to be exceeded, and often to be shortened, which really changes the way the game is played. It necessitates a sense of urgency that the NBA lacks. That being said, it stands to reason that Championships are the central criteria of enduring teams; but if National Championships are the bottom line definer of a team, then this team has yet to fulfill expectations.
But are any of us really disappointed with this team so far? And if not, what does that say about how we judge success? We’ve witnessed the ascension of one of the most dominant college basketball players of all time; we’ve seen maybe the prettiest jump shot one can ever hope to see; we have a point guard that can pick apart defenses like no one we’ve seen since Phil Ford (sorry, Ray Ray). So how will we judge this team? Where do we place it in the canon of Carolina legends?
If you ask me, the legacy of this team is already set. The next six games are icing, no matter what happens. Can you imagine explaining the phenomenon of Hansbrough 15 years from now? When we talk about him, we’ll shake our heads, smile, and say, “No, you just don’t get it,” and we’ll remember what it was like to be a part of something indefinably special. Is there any way to describe Wayne’s jump shot, in a way that gives you the same chills that you get every time you see it? If I could, I would bet the house on a made basket every time Wayne elevates for a jumper. Or how about the look on Ty’s face when he decides he’s going to the lane, and you aren’t going to stop him? Come on. We all know we’ve witnessed something greater than we expected after the 2005 season… and yes, relish it; this team is the stuff of legends.
After all, it’s only Carolina basketball.

More Lawson Toe Talk

2009-03-18T14:09:00.002-04:00

Scott Fowler at The Charlotte Observer, always one to make good observations, points out that we've played this Lawson waiting game before- exactly one year ago. The biggest question then needs to be answered again: is Ty Lawson tough enough?

We know the Bloody Montross was:

Why computers suck...

2009-03-18T12:21:00.002-04:00

Available to ESPN Insiders, the Bracket Predictor today simulates the entire tournament.

Too bad he/it is an idiot. Case in point- his Final Four prediction:

Semifinals

Duke over North Carolina (52 percent odds) -- another toss-up that has the loser outscoring the winner, 73.4-72.7; Memphis over Louisville (six-tenths of a point, 52 percent odds).

Curiosity: Pitt would project to beat the Tar Heels by two points, at 57.3 percent odds.

I'll grab the bat...

OBAMA PICKS HEELS

2009-03-18T12:08:00.002-04:00

Obama unveils his bracket, picks UNC to win it all. Of course, he reminds everyone, he picked us last year, too. Let's hope he's got better information this year.

Obama's complete bracket.

Limbaugh: "President Obama Rigs NCAA Tournament," Conservatives Rally Behind Duke

2009-03-18T10:59:00.004-04:00

President Obama filled out his bracket on ESPN.com yesterday. His Final Four selections were North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Louisville, and Memphis. ESPN hasn't released Obama's choice for National Champion, but we all know the Prez has a a certain affinity for Carolina players.

UPDATE: Obama picked our Heels. I knew there was a reason I liked him.

Skynet Predicts UNC to Win Tournament

2009-03-18T09:27:00.015-04:00

A Georgia Tech professor, whose algorithm correctly predicted last year's Final Four and champion, predicts UNC will win the tournament. "UNC uber alles," the professor was quoted as saying (I made that up).

Where's Sean May?

2009-03-17T18:03:00.002-04:00

Trent Roberts at The Charlotte Observer ranks his top 5 NCAA Tourney performances- full tournament. I'll take James Worthy over Christian Laettner any day, but what about Sean May? He destroyed the field in 2005- in two Final Four games, May scored 48 points and grabbed 17 rebounds against good Michigan State and Illinois teams.

Just sayin'.

On The Heels Bracket Showdown

2009-03-17T17:53:00.001-04:00

None of us know what the hell's gonna happen over the next three weeks. Not even close. But let's go ahead and try to predict the outcome of 63 sporting events dependent on countless interacting factors that can be completely turned upside-down by cruel ex-girlfriend of the world that is fate. Seriously. It'll be fun.

Join the On The Heels Bracket Showdown- because misery loves company.

Lawson update, memories of '77

2009-03-17T17:42:00.001-04:00

The most famous toe in Tar Heel Land is apparently more stubborn than Danny Green.

RE: Busted Before I Begin?

2009-03-17T17:38:00.003-04:00

I'm primarily going to address some basic principles that help guide me through my bracket; in particular, these are how I choose the toss up games. I think they seem a little arbitrary, because they're designed to be an objective (although they're not-so-secretly not), overarching canon of toss up games.
1. If its between a BCS conference team and a non-BCS conference team, go with the BCS team. I'm a big advocate of discriminating against non-BCS conferences. Sorry Butler. I think level of competition is one of the biggest determinants of big game experience.
2. In March, dominant forwards trump dominant guards. This is a pretty well accepted rule, and the national championship team will have to have both, but this can be useful in the early rounds.
3. Don't overestimate recent trends in a team's performance. I think performance averages out over the course of the season, and looking at any snapshot of a team can be extremely misleading. That's why I look at Wake, and think a 4 seed is a perfect seed for them. They've got great wins, and some pretty bad loses. Gonzaga is a team that I think was seeded too highly because of their recent tear, and I don't see it carrying them into the Elite Eight.
4. I never like to choose a game based on location. I simply won't do it. If I can't choose my favorite with the above three criteria, I'll choose the team with the hotter cheerleaders. Thanks, TMQ.

Repeat After Me

2009-03-17T16:52:00.004-04:00

He's not Phil Ford...He's not Phil Ford...He's not Phil Ford...

He's Tyler Hansbrough.

Now go win.

Busted Before I Begin?

2009-03-17T16:41:00.005-04:00

Filling out the bracket for this season has been especially hard because of the parity among the middle seeds. When you look at the field, there's not that many differences between some #2 seeds all the way down to some #7 seeds. This could make for some very interesting upsets, but makes predicting winners pretty difficult. The number one overall seed doesn't even have the least amount of victories and it's first week at #1 was this week.

There is something to be said for winning your conference tournament, but with how flukey the conference tournaments ended up being, and how the top teams in the country seemed to not take them seriously (We all know UNC sat ACC POY Ty Lawson and Roy publicly acknowledged that the conference tournament doesn't mean as much to this team as the NCAAs, especially after winning the last two). So judging a team based on whether it's "hot right now" is not going to serve you well if you expect that team to stay hot for six more games and three more weeks.

As I'm filling my bracket out, I'm running into obstacles in each region. Games that should be obvious and making me take a second glance. For example, #4 seed Wake Forest is supposed to be a great team. They beat UNC, Duke and Clemson, they were ranked #1 during the season, they were the last undefeated team so they handled their non-conference well, and they're a team full of young and talented players. But when you look closer at this game, you realize they're facing a Cleveland State team that beat #3 Syracuse at home (granted, on a prayer shot) and is making it's first appearence in the tournament in over 20 years after winning their conference tourney. This team, like Portland State and North Dakota State (whose coach said they will their game), is begging me to pick them. Ultimately should I? Probably not. But those are #13 seeds. When you get down to the 10,11,12 seeds, the games could go either way and no one would be surprised?

Temple/Arizona State - Either team could win two games
Maryland/Cal - Toss up
BC/USC - Toss up
BYU/Texas A&M - Do you pick A&M because they won last year, or do you avoid them for that same reason?
Clemson/Michigan - If I were Oklahoma, I would not want to play either
LSU/Butler and Tennessee/Oklahoma State - These games will be a referendum on the SEC
VCU, Western Kentucky, Siena - Can they do it again? Or is it too obvious?
Marquette/Utah State - Dominic James = at least 1 win, without him now what?
Texas/Minnesota, FSU/Wisconsin - With all the flaws, it's tough throwing support behind any of these teams

The 1, 2 and 3 seeds are slightly easier to predict, but even there not all the regions will be 1 vs 2. Will they? Is that boring or excellent? Obviously as a Carolina fan we want no slip ups for the South region's #1 seed and if I had to choose one team in the field based on the road in front them to get to the championship game, I would choose Carolina. But everyone else, I think they're in for a crazy 19 days. And to the person that wins the ESPN Tourney Challenge, cherish your one shining moment because what you achieved might have been as difficult as actually winning the games.

Bracket Predictions to come...

Tyler Makes You Pay for Your Loss

2009-03-17T16:37:00.001-04:00

I know we've all seen it, but this had to be posted.

Roy Williams on the Dan Patrick Show

2009-03-17T15:23:00.001-04:00

Listen to the audio here.

Coach Williams seems think to that Louisville is playing the best basketball in the country right now. The overall #1 seed was handed probably the easiest bracket, but with big losses to Notre Dame, Western Kentucky, and UNLV (to name a few), are they really proven? Then again, Rick Pitino IS a master of motivation.

NCAA Tourney 2009 - We're On The Heels

2009-03-17T15:19:00.002-04:00

On The Heels. The only place to turn for the most up-to-date information about your North Carolina Tar Heels...and other stuff. Check back soon for updates.

On The Heels

Moved to Wordpress

John Wall, Coach Clifton, and Roy Williams

Coach on ESPN Radio

2009 vs. 2005

Championship Celebration at the Dome

2009 One Shining Moment Video, plus the Championship game in 2 minutes

Honored Jersey's from the 2009 Championship Team

Franklin Street Celebration Time Lapse

Eazy-E Returning for his Sophomore Season

2009 NCAA Men's Basketball

GO HEELS

Bring on the Spartans!

Final Four Edition: Villanova Game Guide

Tyler Hansbrough

Lawson already a winner in Detroit

Our demons explained

Sometimes, ESPN just doesn't even try (including Ty Hanosaurus Rex)

Don't Worry, World

Poll: Dean Dome toughest venue in college bball

McDonalds Game

If you like blue balls...

Feature on "Rambo"

ESPN Accuscore *Update*

ESPN AccuScore UNC/Nova Prediction

IF VILLANOVA BEATS NORTH CAROLINA

IF NORTH CAROLINA BEATS VILLANOVA

Adam Lucas on Marcus Ginyard

Calipari Takes Kentucky Job

Shocker: Dook selling out to win

Or You Could Mix Dark Blue with White...

Looking Ahead

On The Map

Mandatory Tuesday Reading

Oklahoma Post Game Thoughts

Hansbrough AP All-American...Again

Reggie says Tyler Hansbrough will save US Economy

Psycho T-minus 5 days Roundup

Chapel Hill or Bust

Jeff Capel

Peaking at the Right Time - Thoughts on The Gonzaga Game

More on the Flex Offense

Happy Dook Lost Day!

Toe Update

How Do The Heels Stack Up?

ESPN Sweet 16 Power Rankings

Love/Hate with Gottlieb and Fraschilla

North Carolina

Gonzaga Diet Game Guide

PG contingency plan

Pop the Champaign!

AP: Lawson to play vs. Zags

The Difference Maker

What good is money if it can't inspire terror in your fellow man?

Mandatory Tuesday Reading

Hansbrough Named Naismith Finalist

Take A Deep Breath

Watch Your Mouth, Ric Bucher

Some Thoughts on the LSU Game

Ty Saves the Day

Ed Davis Profile

LSU Gameplan: Run

ACC Teams Afraid of the Dark

Number Crunching

Friday Games to Watch

LSU Diet Game Guide

Carolina Freebies

Quick, Who's the ACC All Time Leading Scorer?

UNC vs. Radford

A Brief History of Upsets

Bracket Predictions

WHY WE HATE DOOK

On The Heels of a Deal: T-shirts

Another One Bites the Duh

Psycho T-minus 4 hours

Radford Game Day

Best/Worst Case Scenarios

On The Heels of a Deal

Williams: “There's a huge, huge probability that Ty will not play."

My G-G-Generation

ESPN Accuscore Update