Friday Games to Watch

So far, the ACC is 3-1 in tournament games, the lone loss being the upset of Clemson by Michigan. Today, #5 FSU takes on a difficult #12 in Wisconsin at 9:55 pm (damn), #7 BC plays #10 USC at 7:20 pm, and #4 Wake plays #13 Cleveland State at 9:40 pm. The Big East, by the way, is 3-0, while the Big Ten is 2-2. All three conferences initially had 7 teams in the tournament, but most of us would rather watch paint dry than watch the Big Ten.
Anyway, as always, watch the games here. Doing work is for suckers.

LSU Diet Game Guide

#1 UNC vs. #8 LSU, ~5:45 pm (3/21). Carolina is coming off a thrashing of Radford, even without Ty Lawson, who is still questionable for Saturday's game. As a result, it looks like no one is taking bets on the game yet until an announcement is made about Ty. But you have to assume UNC would be a double digit favorite with Ty, and and probably around a -4 point favorite without him. There will probably be a money line bet either way, but I won't even try to guess what it'll be.
Anyway, Wayne Ellington is coming off a spectacular game, again. I can throw the numbers at you, but I think what stands out most is that he's somehow gained the ability to take over a game. I'm not exactly sure how I'd define that, but its something about him being visible on every single possession. Even off the ball, he garners so much attention that he makes life easier for his teammates. He's certainly making Larry Drew II and Bobby Frasor's jobs MUCH easier in Ty's absence, because he's now providing a slashing threat that no other perimeter player besides Ty can provide.
Tyler "All Time ACC Leading Scorer" Hansbrough, Danny Green, and Ed Davis also played well. Ed posted a career high 15 points. I said yesterday I think Danny needed to have a big game for his confidence; he was 1 for 3 from 3 point range, and 6 for 14 overall, which is not spectacular, but enough for him to remember that he can knock down shots. He also had 10 rebounds and 3 steals. I think Danny's defense could be one of the keys to the LSU game, as one of his assignments will probably be LSU's Marcus Thorton, a big (6'4"), athletic shooting guard who can play just about any position on the floor. Thorton is coming off a huge game against Butler, where he had 30 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 steals, and only 1 turnover. Its well known amongst the Carolina faithful that big guards have given Carolina problems all year; Greivis Vasquez, Toney Douglas, and Tyrese Rice have all had huge games against the Heels that have resulted in defeats.
Okay, now some good new for us all; first, LSU doesn't have much of a bench threat; 65% of their scoring comes from 3 players, and 85% of their scoring comes from their starting 5. Carolina also relies on their starting five for around 85% of their scoring, but the Heels score around 91 ppg, while LSU scores 75. LSU was ranked #20 in the latest poll, and were the SEC Regular Season Champs, but the SEC is arguably the weakest BCS Conference this year, having put only three teams into the NCAA Tournament. LSU's strength of schedule was 85th in DI, extremely low for an 8 seed. Besides Butler, LSU hasn't beaten a single team in the RPI Top 50 all season, posting an 0-3 record. They're also a bad road/neutral site team, with a 7-5 record at these sites.
As for Ty's injury, we await new news with bated breath and aching toes.

Carolina Freebies

It's not such a secret that come March, free throws often wind up deciding games. Last year, Memphis, an atrocious free throw shooting team (as they are this year), would have won the National Championship if they had shot even just slightly better than the 63% they managed from the line. It's also not such a secret that Tyler Hansbrough has been known to shoot a free throw or two. But he's gotten so good that its almost automatic- he's 68 for 75 (91%) from the line over the past 10 games, and 85.6% on the season, up from 73% his freshman year. Ty Lawson has had a similar jump since his freshman year; he began his UNC career shooting 68%, and is currently up around 81%. Overall, Carolina is shooting 76.1% from the line, making them the 2nd best free throw shooting team in the Tournament, behind only Maryland. Wayne Ellington, on his recent tear, has only had one (slightly) troubling stat; he's 5 for 14 (35%) from the line over the past 5 games. But, I'll tell you what... when he's shooting 60% from the field, as he is now, I think it's okay to have tired arms when at the line. I can almost promise that by the end of this tournament, we'll all appreciate the amount of work these guys have put into their free throw shooting.

By the way, the team free throw shooting jumps to 77.6% if you take out Deon, and almost 80% if you take out Deon AND Ed. I'm jus' sayin.

Quick, Who's the ACC All Time Leading Scorer?

1. Tyler Hansbrough, UNC (2005-09) 2,789*

2. J.J. Redick, Duke (2003-06) 2,769

3. Dickie Hemric, Wake (1952-55) 2,587

4. Johnny Dawkins, Duke (1983-86) 2,556

5. Rodney Monroe, N.C. State (1988-91) 2,551

6. Bryant Stith, UVa (1989-92) 2,516

7. Christian Laettner, Duke (1989-92) 2,460

8. Mike Gminski, Duke (1977-80) 2,323

9. Jeff Lamp, UVa (1978-81) 2,317

10. David Thompson, N.C. State (1973-75) 2,309

*still active

UNC vs. Radford

For commenting on the game...

A Brief History of Upsets

Memphis is currently trailing by 1 with 7:30 to go against CS Northridge. A #2 seed has lost to a #15 seed 4 times: Hampton over Iowa State, 2001, Coppin State over South Carolina in 1997, Santa Clara over Arizona, 1993, and Richmond over Syracuse, 1991. I'm still putting my money on Memphis...

UPDATE: Memphis pulled it off with some solid defense. Too bad... CS Northridge was a couple defensive stops away from history.

Bracket Predictions

And they're off! Click here to see how I think it's going to go down.

More to come on today's action.

WHY WE HATE DOOK

Coach K is a dick.

On The Heels of a Deal: T-shirts

Amazon has some good deals on Tar Heels t-shirts today for less than $15:
North Carolina Tar Heels Oxford Ringer T-Shirt- $8.84-13.64
Soffe University of North Carolina Women's Junior Short Sleeve Tissue Tee- $9.48-10.31
UNC Athletic Oxford Short-Sleeve T-Shirt- $9.78-10.31
North Carolina Tar Heels Ringer T-Shirt- $10.00 - $12.69

Another One Bites the Duh

Do you really need Forbes to tell you UNC is the most valuable college basketball team? Shouldn't they be focusing their attention on, I don't know, reporting the minutiae of the financial crisis that makes Carolina basketball the only bright spot in too many people's lives right now?

*Rumor has it dook would have been ranked higher than 8th had they not expended so much in refs' "fees" the last 25 years.

Psycho T-minus 4 hours

Good article today in the Observer, reminding everyone why the Heels are really going to win it all- it's Tyler's last shot, and he won't be denied.

Radford Game Day

#1 UNC vs. #16 Radford, ~2:50 pm. Game can be watched streaming online here. Ty Lawson will not be playing... but the spread is currently 25 points, and, surprise surprise, there is no money line. Tyler Hansbrough needs 3 points to become the all-time ACC points leader. This could also be an important game for Danny Green to get over his slump, in which he's shot 3 for 25 in his last two games. Deon Thompson has quietly been playing the best basketball of his career, going 16 for 28 (57%) over the past three games, with 17 rebounds. Wayne Ellington has also been on a tear, going 27 for 49 (55%) for the past 4 games, and stuffing the stat sheet with ~ 4 rpg and 3 apg. His defense has also improved off the ball, and his ability to slash to the basket has made him extremely dangerous from anywhere on the court. Larry Drew II has picked up the slack of Ty Lawson's absence, posting a 3.5 to 1 assist to turnover ratio over the past two games, playing 14 and 17 minutes in each ACC tourney game. However, Roy Williams has turned to Bobby Frasor and his senior leadership, to really take over the point guard spot. In the ACC tournament games, Bobby played 37 and 33 minutes. Over the rest of the season, he was averaging closer to 17 minutes per game.
Radford (21-11) is the winner of the Big South conference, the conference in which Virginia Military Institute plays, the only higher scoring team in the country than UNC. Radford's leading scorer, a 6'11" center named Artsiom Parakhouski from Minsk, Belarus, averages a double double, with 16.2 ppg and 11.2 rpg. He's nicknamed Lukashenko's Hope, after his homeland's despot (that's not true). But really, this team shares the ball well, as they have 4 players averaging double figure scoring, and they go nearly 10 deep into their bench. Expect them to try to run.
We'll try to post updates about Ty as they come, as he toes the injury line. Har har. Sorry.
Other ACC games throughout the day:
10 Maryland vs. 7 California at ~2:55 pm.
7 Clemson vs. 10 Michigan at ~7:10 pm.
2 Duke vs. 15 Binghamton at ~9:10 pm.
Florida State and Wake Forest both play tomorrow.

Best/Worst Case Scenarios

Pat Forde at ESPN peers into the Heels' dreams/nightmares:

North Carolina (1)

Best Case: Ty Lawson's troublesome toe stops throbbing. Opponents start sobbing. Tar Heels bend their knees and play defense for 40 minutes. Then they do it again. And again. And again. That's four times against a weak region, resulting in a Final Four berth. Then they do it again. And again. That's six times, and that equals a national championship. Tyler Hansbrough ties title game against Memphis by scoring while being knocked down an NCAA-record 2,360th time, then wins it on a free throw with no time left. Ol' Roy is classy in victory again, chasing down John Calipari to console him as he did Bruce Weber in 2005. Duke loses to Texas.

Worst Case: Lawson's troublesome toe never fully recovers, and neither do the Heels. They're beaten in the Sweet 16 by Gonzaga, the only team in the region with the talent to trade open shots with Carolina and win. Hansbrough gets no calls after jumping into Gonzaga players an NCAA-record 26 times in a single game. Ol' Roy overuses his bench, gets uptight, loses and gets misty-eyed postgame. Says he's gonna frickin' miss these guys, but does not ramble incoherently the way he did after Kansas loss last year. Because he really won't miss their frickin' lax defense. Duke wins it all.

On The Heels of a Deal

While not Carolina or basketball related, how many times in life do you find an offer for a "free" Lamborghini?

Williams: “There's a huge, huge probability that Ty will not play."

Somebody get Alex a paper bag- evidently Ty's looking more doubtful for tomorrow's opening round game against Radford.

My G-G-Generation

You get the feeling that next six games will define how history judges this team. This generation of Carolina players is as talented as any we’ve seen, but they’re playing through a season of injury and surprising parity. Of course, any team that manages to win a National Championship is judged as better, or at least better remembered. But does losing in the Final Four diminish a team’s talent? Of course not, but college basketball is not the NBA; there often is no “next season.” You have a defined lifetime in college basketball, not to be exceeded, and often to be shortened, which really changes the way the game is played. It necessitates a sense of urgency that the NBA lacks. That being said, it stands to reason that Championships are the central criteria of enduring teams; but if National Championships are the bottom line definer of a team, then this team has yet to fulfill expectations.
But are any of us really disappointed with this team so far? And if not, what does that say about how we judge success? We’ve witnessed the ascension of one of the most dominant college basketball players of all time; we’ve seen maybe the prettiest jump shot one can ever hope to see; we have a point guard that can pick apart defenses like no one we’ve seen since Phil Ford (sorry, Ray Ray). So how will we judge this team? Where do we place it in the canon of Carolina legends?
If you ask me, the legacy of this team is already set. The next six games are icing, no matter what happens. Can you imagine explaining the phenomenon of Hansbrough 15 years from now? When we talk about him, we’ll shake our heads, smile, and say, “No, you just don’t get it,” and we’ll remember what it was like to be a part of something indefinably special. Is there any way to describe Wayne’s jump shot, in a way that gives you the same chills that you get every time you see it? If I could, I would bet the house on a made basket every time Wayne elevates for a jumper. Or how about the look on Ty’s face when he decides he’s going to the lane, and you aren’t going to stop him? Come on. We all know we’ve witnessed something greater than we expected after the 2005 season… and yes, relish it; this team is the stuff of legends.
After all, it’s only Carolina basketball.

More Lawson Toe Talk

Scott Fowler at The Charlotte Observer, always one to make good observations, points out that we've played this Lawson waiting game before- exactly one year ago. The biggest question then needs to be answered again: is Ty Lawson tough enough?


We know the Bloody Montross was:

Why computers suck...

Available to ESPN Insiders, the Bracket Predictor today simulates the entire tournament.

Too bad he/it is an idiot. Case in point- his Final Four prediction:

Semifinals

Duke over North Carolina (52 percent odds) -- another toss-up that has the loser outscoring the winner, 73.4-72.7; Memphis over Louisville (six-tenths of a point, 52 percent odds).

Curiosity: Pitt would project to beat the Tar Heels by two points, at 57.3 percent odds.

I'll grab the bat...

OBAMA PICKS HEELS

Obama unveils his bracket, picks UNC to win it all. Of course, he reminds everyone, he picked us last year, too. Let's hope he's got better information this year.

Obama's complete bracket.

Limbaugh: "President Obama Rigs NCAA Tournament," Conservatives Rally Behind Duke

President Obama filled out his bracket on ESPN.com yesterday. His Final Four selections were North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Louisville, and Memphis. ESPN hasn't released Obama's choice for National Champion, but we all know the Prez has a a certain affinity for Carolina players.

UPDATE: Obama picked our Heels. I knew there was a reason I liked him.