The Difference Maker

In modern pro sports, compiling and analyzing statistics is becoming ever more critical to teams' effectiveness in evaluating players. In baseball, some believe that stats can be quantified better at an individual level and even measure players from different eras, where in basketball, stats are still being debated. Major League Baseball uses the minor leagues along with detailed individual stats to make decisions on which players will succeed at a major league level and how much to pay those players. Generally, this system works. The NFL uses different tests, college performance on the field, the combine, and team's individual evaluation to evaluate players for many different types of positions. In the NBA, since draft camps are usually voluntary, and only a handful of guys work out for individual teams (with varying results), most of the evaluation is based on a player's success in college/high school/abroad.

Let's focus on college.

The NBA Draft provides a consensus on how the professional league evaluates college talent, and chooses the players it feels will succeed. Over the years, different accepted trends have become staples of the draft.

1) You can't teach height
2) Draft based on need (though maybe not always - see Atlanta #2)
3) Upside potential > experience

Now obviously these ideas are not always adhered, but most teams agree on what constitutes a bad player, a good player, and a great player. And a lot of that basis has to do with the statistics accumulated in college.

Where am I going with all of this? Let's get to it.

I've pasted below the stats for five players. Four of those players were drafted in the top five of the NBA Draft in their respective years. The last player is still active in college. Each player played at least two years of college basketball and the stats listed here are career numbers. Finally, all five players are between 6'9" and 6'10", weigh in at or around 250lbs and play the power forward position.

Look at these stats. The leader for each category is highlighted in green. What do you see?

From the first four, the NBA clearly saw a player that was one of the five best that year, and one would assume if a player achieved those statistical levels in a college career, they too would be considered one of the best. I mean, all the players averaged 10+ points, though the currently active college player averages over 20. All the players averaged at least 7.5 rebounds with varying assist and steal figures, each around 1. All four NBA players averaged at least 1 block in college, the active college player did not. All five players have at least 50% FG percentage, though the active college player shot nearly 80% from the free throw line and can hit a 3-pointer. And finally, all five players averaged nearly 1.50 PPS (points per shot), though the active college player tied for the highest of the five with 1.64.

After looking at these stats, what conclusions could reasonably be drawn? I would think that the active college player, based on nearly identical height/weight and equal or better statistics throughout college, would be considered one of the top picks in the draft, whenever he decided to leave college. I mean, what professional team would not want a player who is able to achieve the same numbers as at least four other top 5 NBA draft picks?

Well, the truth may surprise you. Click here to see the players names.

Now stop. Before you think what you've been conditioned to think. Before you rationalize the reasons why he is not as good as the other four guys there, or why you know instinctually that he will not be as good a pro. Just stop. Is your judgement clouded? What exactly makes him less valuable? What makes him different from these four guys? He's just as tall as they are, he weighs the same, his numbers are nearly identical across the board and he even offers some talents that these guys didn't. Oh wait, now you see it. You know why you think he's not as good. You see the difference. I don't even need to say it.

Now ask yourself, is that fair? Is it right? Maybe he's not as good as those four guys--but tell me, is that really the reason?