Gonzaga Diet Game Guide

Carolina vs. Gonzaga, Friday, April 27th at 10:00 pm (wtf CBS), in Memphis. The line is now Carolina -8.5, with the money line at -400 (damn), and the o/u still 162. Carolina is coming off a 84-70 win over LSU, a game that was closer than the score would indicate. The bench only scored 9 points that game, all of them from Ed Davis (on 4-6 shooting). Three starters (Hansbrough, Lawson, and Ellington) were in double figures. The entire team shot 54.2% from the field, but had 5 shots fewer than LSU because of their rebounding. Hansbrough didn't have a great game (for him), with 15 points on 6-11 shooting, 8 rounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, with 3 fouls and 3 turnovers. He also disappeared in the second half of the game. Luckily, that's when the old Ty Lawson showed up, scoring 23 points on 7 for 13 shooting. Ellington also played well, again, with 23 points on 9 for 19 shooting. And, also again, Danny Green had a poor shooting night, going 3 for 10. Wayne has more than picked up Danny's slack against lesser teams, but against the high scoring Zags, Carolina will really need Danny as an offensive threat.
Gonzaga barely escaped Western Kentucky in their last game, winning 83-81. All five of their starters scored in double figures (more on this later), and they had 13 bench points from 3 players. Really, Gonzaga escaped on a last minute 3 pointer by Austin Daye. Indicative of both Gonzaga's unwillingness to defend, and of the out of their minds play of WKU, the Zags allowed WKU to shoot 48% from 3 point range, which is really just absurd. WKU scored almost 45% of its points from beyond the arc. Gonzaga does share the ball well, and has 4 (almost 6) players averaging double figures. They have a lot of scoring threats. Additionally, they run the flex offense, which has given Carolina trouble in the past (see: Maryland, BC).
Now, a lot of stats would lead you to believe Gonzaga is a solid defending team. They give up around 62 ppg; however, when you look at teams from the RPI top 25, they give up just about 80 ppg. They do force around 7 steals per game and 5 blocks per game. But those are averages throughout the whole season, and most of their competition has been in WCC play, which is not a very good conference (lets be honest, it sucks). They're only 3-3 vs. RPI top 25 opponents (wins against Tennessee twice, and Oklahoma State once, and losses to UConn, Memphis, and Utah), with a strength of schedule of 92 (worse than LSU's). They're ranked 26th in RPI, which really says they got a higher seed than they may have deserved; probably because a.) they're riding an 11 game win streak that managed to get them a #10 ranking the AP poll, and b.) they're Gonzaga. They're not quite a mid-major, but not a BCS team; people root for them because they're an original Cinderella.
It should be an interesting game. I'm interested to see how Roy calls the defense, because the flex offense is really geared towards beating man to man, with a lot of ball screens and pick and rolls. Is it possible Roy could opt for a zone? Probably not. But I hope he's willing to try. I think a key matchup will be the front court battle between Deon/Ed/Tyler and Josh Heytvelt and Austin Daye, the Zags big men, who both average between 13-15 ppg and 7 rpg. They're often the first and second options for the Zags, so denying them the ball could go a long way towards forcing the Zags into shots they don't want.
As always, we'll try to update with news on Ty's toe. It sounds like its doing much better; but hey, even if he's in pain, as long as he plays like he did last game, who cares?