Final Four Edition: Villanova Game Guide

8:47 PM EST, April 4th: North Carolina vs. Villanova. ACC vs. Big East. Powerhouse program vs. not-so-much-anymore-Cinderella program. The line right now is Carolina -7, with an over under at 159.5. If you followed my advice with the o/u for the Oklahoma game, you would have lost, so I'm not going to suggest anything else, lest you lose again. Anyway, let's take a look back at how we got here.
Carolina began the season with the highest expectations, yadda yadda, we're in the Final Four. That's all that matters now, so I refuse to take a look back. All of you that feel the slightest disappointment with Carolina's season so far can go to hell. I'm not going to rehash the season, because we were all there, and I frankly don't think there's any insight to be gained about this team by analyzing statistics from the regular season. But here we are. Carolina rolled over Oklahoma in the last game, 72-60. A well below average game for Carolina in terms of overall score, but there were many fewer possessions than normal because Carolina was executing its half court offense extremely well. By every metric, Carolina played a great game; FG%, FT%, 3ptFG%, TOs, Assists... there are no complaints here.
Villanova, in their tournament run, has really only played one tight game; the last one against Pitt. They beat UCLA and Duke without much trouble at all. Villanova was not a sleeper; afterall, they're a 3 seed. But if you have a look at their schedule, they really don't have any bad losses, except for an in conference game against Georgetown. Their other losses: 2 times vs. Louisville, @ WVU, @UConn, and @ Marquette. In terms of points for, points against, they're fairly average: 77 pf, 67 pa. You'll hear pundits talk nonstop about Nova's balance. They have 8, almost 9, players averaging double digit minutes per game. They share the ball pretty well, with 15 assists per game (compared to Carolina's 18). An important tipping point, as it always is, could be rebounds. Nova averages 38 rpg to Carolina's 42. But in the tournament, Carolina has averaged an anemic 32 (not including the Radford game). That's a little surprising, because Eazy-E Ed Davis (pictured right in a recent photo) has been playing a lot more, and he's a beast on the boards. Carolina is going to have to rebound better and keep Nova from getting second chance opportunities.
There's no reason to believe Carolina's recent lockdown defense is a trend. I think its about time everyone can agree that this is how this team defends; well. The style of man-to-man that Carolina is known for is excellent against a team like Villanova with so many scoring threats. Mainly, in man to man, you have more accountability from the defender. So if Roy doesn't like a specific matchup, he can sub a player into a better matchup. With zone defense, you really have to go with whoever plays that particular zone well. Nova does have some big swingmen that can score, who may create some matchup problems for the Heels.
Now, for some superstition fodder: Carolina beat Villanova in the tournament in 1982 and 2005. Does anyone remember how those years turned out?


I'll be back later with some names to know. This isn't my fulltime job, you know.

Tyler Hansbrough

This is the last weekend we'll ever have of Tyler Hansbrough in a Carolina uniform. I can't say that enough, because he's already proved he's one of the best Carolina players of all time. Andy Katz wrote an article on Hansbrough's senior year that's worth a read. I'm tired of reading all the articles, asking how he'll be as a pro, because I really don't care anymore. I'm just glad in 30 years, I'll be able to say that I saw almost every game he ever played as a Tarheel. Enjoy it, guys.

Lawson already a winner in Detroit

The Heels have only been in the swarthy sinkhole that is Detroit, MI since last night, but Ty Lawson's already a big winner: today he was named the recipient of this year's Bob Cousy Award for the nation's best point guard and even found time to win $250 in craps at the casino.

The last Tar Heel to win the Cousy award was Raymond Felton ('05). The last Tar Heel to be famous for gambling was Michael Jordan.

Our demons explained

The Bleacher Report posted a nice article explaining why this season hasn't been nearly as enjoyable as it should be, considering the amount of success and domination. It all comes down to one motherfucking bear of a thing: expectations.

Sometimes, ESPN just doesn't even try (including Ty Hanosaurus Rex)

Inside the Brain of Tyler Hansbrough

Ty Hanosaurus Rex (below)



Some people just don't have enough to do. I may or may not be one of them (see: liveblogging from my couch during the McDonald's All American game).

Don't Worry, World

Everything's gonna be ok.

Poll: Dean Dome toughest venue in college bball

So it's terribly unscientific and borderline illogical- who cares? After what Tyler and Danny did to Cameron, the Dean Dome's relative toughness for opposing teams was bound to increase.

According to a national poll of basketball fans. Sponsored by EA Sports. For their video game.

Number one, baby!

McDonalds Game

8:14 pm: Carolina recruit Henson just threw down a couple big dunks. He can really soar. And he's running the floor really well. He moves like a guard... but he's 6'10". Apparently he's a relative of Len Elmore. Anyway, he looks to be about 150 lbs. Dude is skinny.

Dexter Strickland had a turnover, but has shown some quick moves. He's a little undersized, but he's shifty.

Wear twins have yet to get in the game.

8:20 pm: One of the Wear twins is in. No idea which one. He's really moving well with the ball. Has driven from the wing a couple times, and has a turnover and an unremarkable steal. Just had a highlight reel assist, too.
Duke recruit Mason Plumlee and Wear just high fived each other, and I threw up a little.

The other Wear is in now and also had a quick turnover. They've both made some bad quick decisions.

8:40 pm: The Wear twins are listed at 6'9" but look closer to 6'7". From the game in general, you see some flashes of real skill, but everybody looks raw and no one plays defense. It looks like all four of the Carolina recruits handle the ball really well and are threats from anywhere on the floor. But someone desperately needs to get John Henson some Weight Gain 4000.Apparently, when answering the question, "What coach in history would you most like to play for?" Henson answered, "Jim Valvano." I'm not sure I'm okay with that.
Henson just showed some more inside moves. He's a scoring machine.
8:45 pm: Henson again, +1. He's solid.
And a block. Damn.

8:55 pm: Okay, I don't know what to make of the Wears. They move really well, and sometimes handle the ball really well, but then double dribble in open court with no defender. But they seem to make things happen with some long assists, rebounds, solid defense...
D Strick just dove on the floor for a loose ball. Somewhere, Roy is smiling.

9:30 pm: Henson is all over the floor. Just got a little dish from one of the Wears. He seems to be able to dunk from anywhere within 10 feet of the basketball as long as he's got a step. Dunked at one end, got back and blocked a shot at the other. He looks like maybe the best athlete on the floor.

9:33 pm: The coach of the West team seems to have a strategy to have 1 Wear on the floor at all times. I think this is a good idea. List them as the same number, and play each for 20 minutes a game, so they look totally tireless. What could be more demoralizing?

If you like blue balls...

Read this article. Please. And tell me if it doesn't leave you wondering what the hell just happened. What was the point? To nag on how this year's Heels aren't as good as they should have been? Fail. To point out the ridiculous nature of our superlative sports media culture? Fail.

I was hoping Scoop was heading towards a wistful commentary underscoring the greatness we've seen unfold these last few weeks and how the season has come full circle, and the Heels have a chance to be that great team this weekend. Sadly, fail.

Now excuse me while I drag my "pantone blue" balls over to tarheelblue.com and wrap myself in the quick release of Adam Lucas' archives.

Feature on "Rambo"

ESPN posted feature articles on a player from each team in the Final Four, and this is the one on Ty.

Basically, he's the best.

ESPN Accuscore *Update*

In the previous post, Jimmy showed us what it takes for Nova to upset the Heels, and vice versa. Despite the misleading headline for the article at ESPN, here's the likelihood for each scenario, via their "infallible" computer models.

UNC wins = 73%
Nova wins = 27%

For reference, the Elite Eight matchup only tilted to the Heels 62/38.

Go Heels.

ESPN AccuScore UNC/Nova Prediction

Here's the whole article, cause most people won't be able to access it unless you're an ESPN Insider. Its vaguely interesting. Here's a link to the original.

Even though the Villanova Wildcats are 7.5-point underdogs in Vegas, if they win, they most likely will win by seven or more points. If the North Carolina Tar Heels beat the Cats, expect a double-digit margin (around 15 points). In other words, you can ignore the spread.

The two outcomes hing on two stats: 3-point shooting percentage and rebounding.

When Villanova won in simulations, the Wildcats shot 38 percent from 3-point range while North Carolina was a cold 31 percent. Villanova also slightly out-rebounded the Tar Heels. That makes a lot of sense, as we just saw a similar scenario play out in the Elite Eight.

In its upset win over Pittsburgh, Villanova shot just 30 percent from 3-point range, but this was better than Pitt's 27.8 percent. The undersized Villanova squad also out-rebounded one of the best rebounding teams in the country 29-27.

Free throw percentage was a huge factor for Villanova against Pittsburgh, but it will not likely be a big factor against the Tar Heels, as both teams shoot well from the line. Turnovers always play a major role, but Villanova can win even if it commits more turnovers than North Carolina. In simulation wins, Villanova averaged 13.1 turnovers to Carolina's 12.6.

IF VILLANOVA BEATS NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINA	FG%	FT%	3P%	TO	TREB	PTS
Tyler Hansbrough	44%	83%	34%	2.1	7.9	18.9
Ty Lawson	45%	79%	36%	2.5	2.9	15.3
Wayne Ellington	40%	78%	31%	2.2	4.7	14.4
Danny Green	38%	84%	32%	2.4	5.2	12.2
Deon Thompson	41%	60%	--	1.4	4.6	7.5
Ed Davis	44%	59%	--	1.2	6.0	5.7
TEAM TOTALS	41%	76%	31%	12.6	35.2	77.0
VILLANOVA	FG%	FT%	3P%	TO	TREB	PTS
Dante Cunningham	52%	72%	7%	2.7	7.3	17.9
Scottie Reynolds	42%	82%	39%	2.5	3.8	15.3
Dwayne Anderson	48%	81%	35%	1.9	6.5	12.6
Corey Fisher	44%	80%	37%	1.9	2.4	11.4
Corey Stokes	43%	87%	43%	1.1	3.6	9.9
Reggie Redding	44%	68%	31%	1.6	5.6	7.4
TEAM TOTALS	46%	77%	38%	13.1	35.6	84.6

When North Carolina won in simulations, the Tar Heels had the edge in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage and, most importantly, were plus-5.3 on the boards. When you combine the rebounding edge with a 3.7 turnover edge, the Tar Heels got nine more possessions out of these categories. Greater offensive efficiency (higher shooting percentages) combined with more possessions can result in an easy Carolina win.

IF NORTH CAROLINA BEATS VILLANOVA

NORTH CAROLINA	FG%	FT%	3P%	TO	TREB	PTS
Tyler Hansbrough	50%	84%	39%	1.9	8.8	20.4
Ty Lawson	51%	81%	43%	2.3	3.2	17.9
Wayne Ellington	45%	79%	38%	2.0	5.2	16.8
Danny Green	44%	87%	39%	2.2	5.6	14.3
Deon Thompson	47%	64%	--	1.2	4.9	8.6
Ed Davis	51%	61%	--	1.0	6.4	6.7
TEAM TOTALS	47%	78%	38%	11.3	38.3	88.6
VILLANOVA	FG%	FT%	3P%	TO	TREB	PTS
Dante Cunningham	47%	69%	3%	3.1	6.9	16.4
Scottie Reynolds	35%	81%	32%	2.8	3.3	13.2
Dwayne Anderson	42%	79%	28%	1.1	6.1	10.8
Corey Fisher	37%	79%	29%	2.1	2.2	9.9
Corey Stokes	35%	86%	35%	1.2	3.2	8.2
Reggie Redding	38%	67%	25%	1.9	5.3	6.6
TEAM TOTALS	40%	75%	30%	15.0	33.0	74.0

Spread 'Em

The Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games were filled with blowouts. Other than Pittsburgh's games against Xavier and Villanova and the Kansas-Michigan State game, every game ended with a final margin of more than 10 points. The average point spread in those 12 games was 4.4, yet the average final margin was 13.4.

We are left with four very good teams, and most experts will predict close games. But if there are close games Saturday, it will be a surprise. For the season, when a team was favored by four or fewer points, the average final margin was 8.91. This is not much less than when teams are favored by 7.5 or fewer points -- 9.34 average final margin.

How Has AccuScore Performed?

Now that you know what a victory for each team will look like in the final box score, you probably want to know which team to take. You can find those simulations here.

In the meantime, our predictions for both these teams have been pretty good all season. On point spread predictions, AccuScore's predictions have generated profits for both teams:

TEAM	ACCUSCORE POINT SPREAD RECORD
Villanova	21 Right, 11 Wrong, 65.6% accurate, +890 Units (110 risk per)
North Carolina	17 Right, 15 Wrong, 53.1% accurate, +50 Units
COMBINED	38 Right, 26 Wrong, 59.4% accurate, +940 Units

For the record, here is AccuScore's over/under prediction records for these two teams. Both of these teams have generated profits.

TEAM	ACCUSCORE POINT SPREAD RECORD
North Carolina	20 Right, 13 Wrong, 60.6% accurate, +570 Units (110 risk per)
Villanova	18 Right, 12 Wrong, 60.0% accurate, +480 Units
COMBINED	38 Right, 25 Wrong, 60.3% accurate, +1050 Units

Adam Lucas on Marcus Ginyard

Adam Lucas wrote a good article on why Marcus is still such a big part of this team, despite being out with an injury. Check it out here.
He makes a good point; although Marcus can't get on the game floor, he can play in practice, which really makes Danny and Wayne step up their game on off days. I wonder how much that may have contributed to Wayne's recent offensive burst.

Calipari Takes Kentucky Job

The only reason this is news on this blog is because I spent about an hour of work today photoshopping this picture as an April Fool's Day joke ("TRAITOR ROY"). Thanks, John Calipari. Just another reason to hate Kentucky.

Shocker: Dook selling out to win

The Observer blog has a great in-depth look at dook's recruiting struggles in recent years- and you have to love the title: Recruiting Wall a desperate act by Dook.

"Since Duke's most recent Final Four appearance ('04), UNC has been to the Final Four three times, with one title in the bag and another just 80 minutes away.

That's why Duke is back in the one-and-done business. Right or wrong, it's that simple."

Or You Could Mix Dark Blue with White...

Chapel Hill police are asking paint stores to restrict the sale of Carolina Blue paint this week.


I was on Franklin Street in 2005 and I don't remember people running around painting things. Maybe they should restrict the sale of fire, wooden chairs, and cars...because that should be the larger concern.

Looking Ahead

Just a heads up to everyone... Tomorow, April 1st, is the 2009 High School McDonald's All American Game. Carolina has 4 players in the game this year, 3 on the East team and 1 on the West team. On the East are John Henson, and David and Travis Wear. On the West is Dexter Strickland. Carolina leads all schools with 4 McDonald's All American recruits. Duke, Villanova, and Oklahoma each have two recruits in the game. The ACC has 9 of the 21 decided players (Georgia Tech, FSU, and Clemson each have one). It should be fun to watch. John Henson is supposed to be Carolina's best recruit, and is considered by many to maybe have the most upside in any player graduating in 2009. Keep an eye on him. In the off season, we'll have a lot more on these guys, including personal interviews (not really).

On The Map

The Charlotte Observer is conducting a fun, useless mapping poll of sorts, asking Heels fans to post their locations in the comments section of this page in order to...well, I'm not really sure why, but they put pins in those locations on the map. I guess it shows the strength of the Tar Heel Nation?

An interesting idea, at least.

Mandatory Tuesday Reading

Okay, the ubiquitous tarheelblue.com put up their Tuesday Mailbag and Tuesday Talking Points. Read the talking points, they're really interesting. Here's the coolest, I thought:

• The last time an ACC team other than Carolina advanced to at least the Elite Eight was 2004, Roy Williams's first season. This year marks the fourth time in the six-year Williams era that Carolina is the last remaining entry from the ACC in the NCAA tournament. In that span, league teams have made six appearances in the Elite Eight; Carolina owns four of those six appearances.

We knew it all along, but Carolina has really become the only reason people talk about the ACC over the past couple years. T-minus 4 days until the Final Four...

Oklahoma Post Game Thoughts

Yeah, I'm a little late on this. Whatever. I've just been too elated about the 72-60 win. Carolina shot around 51%, but only took 51 shots; the team averages about 66 per game on the rest of the season. So, Oklahoma managed to really slow the Tarheels down, but still couldn't beat them. Their dismal 3 point shooting (2 for 19) certainly didn't help. But by no means did the Heels play a great offensive game. They had 13 total assists to 12 turnovers, as well as fouling 19 times; Carolina averages 18 assists, 12 turnovers, and 16 fouls.
Defensively, Carolina was exceptional. They caused 20 fouls, 15 turnovers (to 9 assists), and held Oklahoma to 44% shooting. That's 60 total points for a team that averages 79 ppg. Oklahoma definitely missed some open shots, but at some point, you have to attribute it to Carolina's defense.
What about the disappearance of Tyler Hansbrough? 8 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 rebounds. Not a terrible line, but not great for him. But he only took 4 shots... that begs the question as to whether or not Tyler was really in the game plan. And, this is just speculation, but I think there's no way Roy would create a gameplan like that. Tyler has been the centerpiece of this offense for 4 years. So, what do we attribute his absense to? I really have no idea... please, if you have some insight, leave a comment, because I'm really clueless. Its not like everyone else on the team was shooting lights out. Maybe his foul trouble had a lot to do with it. But Tyler is great about not fouling, so you'd think he wouldn't change his game just because he picked up 2 fouls. Any ideas?
And, well, Tyler, we <3 you, but...


That's funny stuff.