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Go Heels!
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Friday, April 10, 2009
John Wall, Coach Clifton, and Roy Williams
There have been some rumors circulating about John Wall (left), the top ranked point guard in the 2009 class. Supposedly, Roy called him last Thursday from the Final Four, but Wall later said Roy wasn't recruiting him and UNC was not on his list. One of the reasons for this may have been Wall's AAU coach, Brian Clifton. Clifton apparently is upset that a.) Roy didn't recruit Wall sooner, and b.) Roy wasn't interested in another one of Clifton's recruits that Clifton had brought to Carolina earlier. According to the News and Observer, Clifton said, "I have no desire to talk to, to be involved with, to visit, to contemplate in any shape, form or fashion John Wall going to play for Roy Williams. Zero." Tarheelfanblog says that when a talk radio personality asked Clifton what he didn't like about Roy, he said "I don’t have any respect for Roy Williams. I encourage [my players] to play for guys that will inspire them to be good people. If you’re not a good person, you can’t make someone a good person."I've never heard of Roy inspiring so much hate in someone. Clifton sounds a bit like a spurned, vindictive ex-girlfriend. I mean, tell me if I'm wrong, but he said he wants a coach who's a good
person, and then goes on to call Roy a bad person. Take your own advice there, buddy. Roy is one of the most well liked and respected coaches in college. He has never been anything but a class act. So my guess is that Clifton, like a middle school girl, is trying to stir up controversy to get some attention. He's an embarrassment, and its a shame that he's partially in control of so many young talents' futures. Not only that, but his arm- flailing attention-whoring comes at the expense of his recruits futures. He's burning bridges, and I have no doubt that his lofty ambition of cannibalizing his players' careers for his own amelioration will fail.Furthermore, Clifton met with Coach K and said he was impressed with Duke, and Wall now has Duke on his shortlist. Clifton said, "The emergence of Duke as a viable option, that in and of itself has caused a change."
"We all left the meeting with the conclusion that it was worth exploring further," said Clifton. "I respect Coach K and the way that he goes about business. … He was enough of a professional to deal with people based on who they really are, not on what he’s heard they might be. I’d be comfortable with any of my guys learning from and being shaped and molded by a guy who’s got that in his character."
Based on his earlier allusions, that last bit again seems like a dig at Roy. Clifton has proven himself to be a sycophantic leech, a carpetbagging, opportunist parasite, drunk on the power he gets from his players' leverage. I certainly hope his outlandish attention mongering doesn't affect the players unlucky enough to be in his auspices.
Coach on ESPN Radio
Roy was on ESPN Radio the other day talking about the Championship game, the motivation for the team... Give it a listen. (Its about 10 minutes)
2009 vs. 2005
I'm not going to try to tell you which team was better. But I think the stat comparisons are pretty interesting. First, some overall team stats. 2009 (2005): 90 ppg (88p ppg), 48 rpg (40 rpg), 18 apg (19 apg), 12 turnovers per game (16 turnovers per game), 8.6 spg (10 spg), 5.2 bpg (3.8 bpg), 75.2% FT (72.5%), 48% FG (50%), 38.7% 3pFG (40.3%). Those are pretty remarkably similar. The only player that averaged more than 27 minutes per game on that team was Ray Ray Felton, whereas the 2009 team had 4 players averaging 27+ mpg (Hansbrough, Ellington, Green, and Lawson).
Some position player comparisons (and keep in mind, like I said, these guys had more minutes per game than the 2005 team, which partially explains the inflated numbers)
Hansbrough (20 ppg, 8 rpg) vs. Sean May (17.5 ppg, 11 rpg)
Lawson (17 ppg, 3 rpg, 7 apg, 2 spg, 2 TOpg) vs. Felton (13 ppg, 4 rpg, 4 apg, 0.3 spg, 3.6 TOpg)
Ellington (16 ppg, 5 rpg, 2.7 apg) vs. McCants (16 ppg, 3 rpg, 2.7 apg)
If we can objectively use these players to project NBA success, I think this 2009 team could be solid NBA players. McCants has shown some flashes of greatness. Felton has been excellent for the Bobcats and has consistently gotten better. The comparison between May and Hansbrough, though I think is much less apt, because May seems to have no drive whatsoever, whereas Tyler... well, it doesn't need to be said.
Some position player comparisons (and keep in mind, like I said, these guys had more minutes per game than the 2005 team, which partially explains the inflated numbers)
Hansbrough (20 ppg, 8 rpg) vs. Sean May (17.5 ppg, 11 rpg)
Lawson (17 ppg, 3 rpg, 7 apg, 2 spg, 2 TOpg) vs. Felton (13 ppg, 4 rpg, 4 apg, 0.3 spg, 3.6 TOpg)
Ellington (16 ppg, 5 rpg, 2.7 apg) vs. McCants (16 ppg, 3 rpg, 2.7 apg)
If we can objectively use these players to project NBA success, I think this 2009 team could be solid NBA players. McCants has shown some flashes of greatness. Felton has been excellent for the Bobcats and has consistently gotten better. The comparison between May and Hansbrough, though I think is much less apt, because May seems to have no drive whatsoever, whereas Tyler... well, it doesn't need to be said.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Championship Celebration at the Dome
I can't figure out how to embed this video, cause I'm a dumbass, but if you go to tarheelblue and click on "Championship Celebration," beneath the video player, you can watch the players arriving at the Dean Dome on Tuesday. Its about 30 minutes long, but worth it. Especially Waynebow Ellington and his three piece suit.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
2009 One Shining Moment Video, plus the Championship game in 2 minutes
...in case you're into this sort of thing.
Here are some highlights of the Championship game. I think I've probably watched this clip 10 or 12 times.
Here are some highlights of the Championship game. I think I've probably watched this clip 10 or 12 times.
Honored Jersey's from the 2009 Championship Team
So, as if you didn't already realize how special this team was, let's talk rafters. For a player to be eligible to have his jersey honored, he must:
1. Be MVP of a Championship team
2. Be first or second team all American
or
3. Be a member of a gold winning Olympic team.
Waynestorm Ellington (number 22) was named MOP of the Final Four, and Ty Lawson (number 5) was a second team all American. Frankly, I (along with Roy Williams) think that ACC Player of the Year honors should also make someone eligible to have his jersey retired. I'm not sure how many ACC POYs there have been who haven't been first or second team all American. I'm guessing not that many.
And, for a player to have his jersey retired, he must win one of the six National Player of the Year awards: Associated Press, National Association of Basketball Coaches, Sporting News, John R. Wooden Award, Oscar Robertson Trophy, or Naismith College Player of the Year. Obviously, this includes Hansbrough (number 50).
So 60% of the starting 5 of this team will be in the rafters. That's pretty amazing. Carolina currently has 43 jerseys honored/retired. Adding 3 to that number from one team is pretty incredible.
And FYI, there's already two number 22s in the rafters; York Larese, who played from 1958-61, had his jersey retired when he was named second team all American. The second is from Bob Lewis, who played from 1964-1967, a first team All American.
1. Be MVP of a Championship team
2. Be first or second team all American
or
3. Be a member of a gold winning Olympic team.
Waynestorm Ellington (number 22) was named MOP of the Final Four, and Ty Lawson (number 5) was a second team all American. Frankly, I (along with Roy Williams) think that ACC Player of the Year honors should also make someone eligible to have his jersey retired. I'm not sure how many ACC POYs there have been who haven't been first or second team all American. I'm guessing not that many.
And, for a player to have his jersey retired, he must win one of the six National Player of the Year awards: Associated Press, National Association of Basketball Coaches, Sporting News, John R. Wooden Award, Oscar Robertson Trophy, or Naismith College Player of the Year. Obviously, this includes Hansbrough (number 50).
So 60% of the starting 5 of this team will be in the rafters. That's pretty amazing. Carolina currently has 43 jerseys honored/retired. Adding 3 to that number from one team is pretty incredible.
And FYI, there's already two number 22s in the rafters; York Larese, who played from 1958-61, had his jersey retired when he was named second team all American. The second is from Bob Lewis, who played from 1964-1967, a first team All American.
Franklin Street Celebration Time Lapse
This is pretty awesome. CNN.com posted a time lapse video of the celebration on Franklin Street. If you look carefully, you can make out me and Alex on the balcony at Top O. Not really, but that'd be cool too.
Eazy-E Returning for his Sophomore Season
Ed Davis has said he won't even test the waters in the NBA draft this season. ESPN had him predicted as a lottery pick, but he's said he won't hire an agent and is "definitely" returning. Obviously this is great news for Carolina fans... he'll be an experienced body in the spectacular returning front court for Carolina next year.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Monday, April 6, 2009
GO HEELS
Now's the time. Do it for Tyler. Do it for Danny. Do it for Bobby. Do it for Roy. Do it for everyone out there who gets chills at the first few words of Kurault's quote, who tears up at the mere idea of the Clefs singing "Carolina In My Mind" on the Kenan turf, who can spell C-A-R-O-L-I-N-A with their arms faster than most people can spell Y-M-C-A.
Do it for blue cups at He's Not. Do it for cheese tots at Hector's. Do it for the bowl of muthafucking cheese. Do it for the kids who jump into pools from frat house roofs.
Do it for all the right reasons because it's one of the few places left in this world where you can.
But above all, before anything else in the world: do it for yourselves. Game on.
Do it for blue cups at He's Not. Do it for cheese tots at Hector's. Do it for the bowl of muthafucking cheese. Do it for the kids who jump into pools from frat house roofs.
Do it for all the right reasons because it's one of the few places left in this world where you can.
But above all, before anything else in the world: do it for yourselves. Game on.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Bring on the Spartans!
Great win against the Nova Wildcats. After dispatching the traditional Cinderellas with relative ease, it's time to crush the dreams of the 2009 version in like fashion.
One thing's for certain- no matter how much they protest, we know the Spartans will be at least a little in awe of the Tar Heels. Their eyes betray them (thanks Beth).
One thing's for certain- no matter how much they protest, we know the Spartans will be at least a little in awe of the Tar Heels. Their eyes betray them (thanks Beth).
Friday, April 3, 2009
Final Four Edition: Villanova Game Guide
8:47 PM EST, April 4th: North Carolina vs. Villanova. ACC vs. Big East. Powerhouse program vs. not-so-much-anymore-Cinderella program. The line right now is Carolina -7, with an over under at 159.5. If you followed my advice with the o/u for the Oklahoma game, you would have lost, so I'm not going to suggest anything else, lest you lose again. Anyway, let's take a look back at how we got here.
Carolina began the season with the highest expectations, yadda yadda, we're in the Final Four. That's all that matters now, so I refuse to take a look back. All of you that feel the slightest disappointment with Carolina's season so far can go to hell. I'm not going to rehash the season, because we were all there, and I frankly don't think there's any insight to be gained about this team by analyzing statistics from the regular season. But here we are. Carolina rolled over Oklahoma in the last game, 72-60. A well below average game for Carolina in terms of overall score, but there were many fewer possessions than normal because Carolina was executing its half court offense extremely well. By every metric, Carolina played a great game; FG%, FT%, 3ptFG%, TOs, Assists... there are no complaints here.
Villanova, in their tournament run, has really only played one tight game; the last one against Pitt. They beat UCLA and Duke without much trouble at all. Villanova was not a sleeper; afterall, they're a 3 seed. But if you have a look at their schedule, they really don't have any bad losses, except for an in conference game against Georgetown. Their other losses: 2 times vs. Louisville, @ WVU, @UConn, and @ Marquette. In terms of points for, points against, they're fairly average: 77 pf, 67 pa. You'll hear pundits talk nonstop about Nova's balance. They have 8, almost
9, players averaging double digit minutes per game. They share the ball pretty well, with 15 assists per game (compared to Carolina's 18). An important tipping point, as it always is, could be rebounds. Nova averages 38 rpg to Carolina's 42. But in the tournament, Carolina has averaged an anemic 32 (not including the Radford game). That's a little surprising, because Eazy-E Ed Davis (pictured right in a recent photo) has been playing a lot more, and he's a beast on the boards. Carolina is going to have to rebound better and keep Nova from getting second chance opportunities.
There's no reason to believe Carolina's recent lockdown defense is a trend. I think its about time everyone can agree that this is how this team defends; well. The style of man-to-man that Carolina is known for is excellent against a team like Villanova with so many scoring threats. Mainly, in man to man, you have more accountability from the defender. So if Roy doesn't like a specific matchup, he can sub a player into a better matchup. With zone defense, you really have to go with whoever plays that particular zone well. Nova does have some big swingmen that can score, who may create some matchup problems for the Heels.
Now, for some superstition fodder: Carolina beat Villanova in the tournament in 1982 and 2005. Does anyone remember how those years turned out?
I'll be back later with some names to know. This isn't my fulltime job, you know.
Carolina began the season with the highest expectations, yadda yadda, we're in the Final Four. That's all that matters now, so I refuse to take a look back. All of you that feel the slightest disappointment with Carolina's season so far can go to hell. I'm not going to rehash the season, because we were all there, and I frankly don't think there's any insight to be gained about this team by analyzing statistics from the regular season. But here we are. Carolina rolled over Oklahoma in the last game, 72-60. A well below average game for Carolina in terms of overall score, but there were many fewer possessions than normal because Carolina was executing its half court offense extremely well. By every metric, Carolina played a great game; FG%, FT%, 3ptFG%, TOs, Assists... there are no complaints here.
Villanova, in their tournament run, has really only played one tight game; the last one against Pitt. They beat UCLA and Duke without much trouble at all. Villanova was not a sleeper; afterall, they're a 3 seed. But if you have a look at their schedule, they really don't have any bad losses, except for an in conference game against Georgetown. Their other losses: 2 times vs. Louisville, @ WVU, @UConn, and @ Marquette. In terms of points for, points against, they're fairly average: 77 pf, 67 pa. You'll hear pundits talk nonstop about Nova's balance. They have 8, almost
9, players averaging double digit minutes per game. They share the ball pretty well, with 15 assists per game (compared to Carolina's 18). An important tipping point, as it always is, could be rebounds. Nova averages 38 rpg to Carolina's 42. But in the tournament, Carolina has averaged an anemic 32 (not including the Radford game). That's a little surprising, because Eazy-E Ed Davis (pictured right in a recent photo) has been playing a lot more, and he's a beast on the boards. Carolina is going to have to rebound better and keep Nova from getting second chance opportunities.There's no reason to believe Carolina's recent lockdown defense is a trend. I think its about time everyone can agree that this is how this team defends; well. The style of man-to-man that Carolina is known for is excellent against a team like Villanova with so many scoring threats. Mainly, in man to man, you have more accountability from the defender. So if Roy doesn't like a specific matchup, he can sub a player into a better matchup. With zone defense, you really have to go with whoever plays that particular zone well. Nova does have some big swingmen that can score, who may create some matchup problems for the Heels.
Now, for some superstition fodder: Carolina beat Villanova in the tournament in 1982 and 2005. Does anyone remember how those years turned out?
I'll be back later with some names to know. This isn't my fulltime job, you know.
Tyler Hansbrough
This is the last weekend we'll ever have of Tyler Hansbrough in a Carolina uniform. I can't say that enough, because he's already proved he's one of the best Carolina players of all time. Andy Katz wrote an article on Hansbrough's senior year that's worth a read. I'm tired of reading all the articles, asking how he'll be as a pro, because I really don't care anymore. I'm just glad in 30 years, I'll be able to say that I saw almost every game he ever played as a Tarheel. Enjoy it, guys.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Lawson already a winner in Detroit
The Heels have only been in the swarthy sinkhole that is Detroit, MI since last night, but Ty Lawson's already a big winner: today he was named the recipient of this year's Bob Cousy Award for the nation's best point guard and even found time to win $250 in craps at the casino.
The last Tar Heel to win the Cousy award was Raymond Felton ('05). The last Tar Heel to be famous for gambling was Michael Jordan.
Our demons explained
The Bleacher Report posted a nice article explaining why this season hasn't been nearly as enjoyable as it should be, considering the amount of success and domination. It all comes down to one motherfucking bear of a thing: expectations.
Sometimes, ESPN just doesn't even try (including Ty Hanosaurus Rex)
Inside the Brain of Tyler Hansbrough
Ty Hanosaurus Rex (below)
Some people just don't have enough to do. I may or may not be one of them (see: liveblogging from my couch during the McDonald's All American game).
Ty Hanosaurus Rex (below)
Some people just don't have enough to do. I may or may not be one of them (see: liveblogging from my couch during the McDonald's All American game).
Poll: Dean Dome toughest venue in college bball
So it's terribly unscientific and borderline illogical- who cares? After what Tyler and Danny did to Cameron, the Dean Dome's relative toughness for opposing teams was bound to increase.
According to a national poll of basketball fans. Sponsored by EA Sports. For their video game.
Number one, baby!
According to a national poll of basketball fans. Sponsored by EA Sports. For their video game.
Number one, baby!
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
McDonalds Game
8:14 pm: Carolina recruit Henson just threw down a couple big dunks. He can really soar. And he's running the floor really well. He moves like a guard... but he's 6'10". Apparently he's a relative of Len Elmore. Anyway, he looks to be about 150 lbs. Dude is skinny.
Dexter Strickland had a turnover, but has shown some quick moves. He's a little undersized, but he's shifty.
Wear twins have yet to get in the game.
8:20 pm: One of the Wear twins is in. No idea which one. He's really moving well with the ball. Has driven from the wing a couple times, and has a turnover and an unremarkable steal. Just had a highlight reel assist, too.
Duke recruit Mason Plumlee and Wear just high fived each other, and I threw up a little.
The other Wear is in now and also had a quick turnover. They've both made some bad quick decisions.
8:40 pm: The Wear twins are listed at 6'9" but look closer to 6'7". From the game in general, you see some flashes of real skill, but everybody looks raw and no one plays defense. It looks like all four of the Carolina recruits handle the ball really well and are threats from anywhere on the floor. But someone desperately needs to get John Henson some Weight Gain 4000.
Apparently, when answering the question, "What coach in history would you most like to play for?" Henson answered, "Jim Valvano." I'm not sure I'm okay with that.
Henson just showed some more inside moves. He's a scoring machine.
8:45 pm: Henson again, +1. He's solid.
And a block. Damn.
8:55 pm: Okay, I don't know what to make of the Wears. They move really well, and sometimes handle the ball really well, but then double dribble in open court with no defender. But they seem to make things happen with some long assists, rebounds, solid defense...
D Strick just dove on the floor for a loose ball. Somewhere, Roy is smiling.
9:30 pm: Henson is all over the floor. Just got a little dish from one of the Wears. He seems to be able to dunk from anywhere within 10 feet of the basketball as long as he's got a step. Dunked at one end, got back and blocked a shot at the other. He looks like maybe the best athlete on the floor.
9:33 pm: The coach of the West team seems to have a strategy to have 1 Wear on the floor at all times. I think this is a good idea. List them as the same number, and play each for 20 minutes a game, so they look totally tireless. What could be more demoralizing?
Dexter Strickland had a turnover, but has shown some quick moves. He's a little undersized, but he's shifty.
Wear twins have yet to get in the game.
8:20 pm: One of the Wear twins is in. No idea which one. He's really moving well with the ball. Has driven from the wing a couple times, and has a turnover and an unremarkable steal. Just had a highlight reel assist, too.
Duke recruit Mason Plumlee and Wear just high fived each other, and I threw up a little.
The other Wear is in now and also had a quick turnover. They've both made some bad quick decisions.
8:40 pm: The Wear twins are listed at 6'9" but look closer to 6'7". From the game in general, you see some flashes of real skill, but everybody looks raw and no one plays defense. It looks like all four of the Carolina recruits handle the ball really well and are threats from anywhere on the floor. But someone desperately needs to get John Henson some Weight Gain 4000.
Apparently, when answering the question, "What coach in history would you most like to play for?" Henson answered, "Jim Valvano." I'm not sure I'm okay with that.Henson just showed some more inside moves. He's a scoring machine.
8:45 pm: Henson again, +1. He's solid.
And a block. Damn.
8:55 pm: Okay, I don't know what to make of the Wears. They move really well, and sometimes handle the ball really well, but then double dribble in open court with no defender. But they seem to make things happen with some long assists, rebounds, solid defense...
D Strick just dove on the floor for a loose ball. Somewhere, Roy is smiling.
9:30 pm: Henson is all over the floor. Just got a little dish from one of the Wears. He seems to be able to dunk from anywhere within 10 feet of the basketball as long as he's got a step. Dunked at one end, got back and blocked a shot at the other. He looks like maybe the best athlete on the floor.
9:33 pm: The coach of the West team seems to have a strategy to have 1 Wear on the floor at all times. I think this is a good idea. List them as the same number, and play each for 20 minutes a game, so they look totally tireless. What could be more demoralizing?
If you like blue balls...
Read this article. Please. And tell me if it doesn't leave you wondering what the hell just happened. What was the point? To nag on how this year's Heels aren't as good as they should have been? Fail. To point out the ridiculous nature of our superlative sports media culture? Fail.
I was hoping Scoop was heading towards a wistful commentary underscoring the greatness we've seen unfold these last few weeks and how the season has come full circle, and the Heels have a chance to be that great team this weekend. Sadly, fail.
Now excuse me while I drag my "pantone blue" balls over to tarheelblue.com and wrap myself in the quick release of Adam Lucas' archives.
I was hoping Scoop was heading towards a wistful commentary underscoring the greatness we've seen unfold these last few weeks and how the season has come full circle, and the Heels have a chance to be that great team this weekend. Sadly, fail.
Now excuse me while I drag my "pantone blue" balls over to tarheelblue.com and wrap myself in the quick release of Adam Lucas' archives.
Feature on "Rambo"
ESPN posted feature articles on a player from each team in the Final Four, and this is the one on Ty. Basically, he's the best.
ESPN Accuscore *Update*
In the previous post, Jimmy showed us what it takes for Nova to upset the Heels, and vice versa. Despite the misleading headline for the article at ESPN, here's the likelihood for each scenario, via their "infallible" computer models.
UNC wins = 73%
Nova wins = 27%
For reference, the Elite Eight matchup only tilted to the Heels 62/38.
Go Heels.
UNC wins = 73%
Nova wins = 27%
For reference, the Elite Eight matchup only tilted to the Heels 62/38.
Go Heels.
ESPN AccuScore UNC/Nova Prediction
Here's the whole article, cause most people won't be able to access it unless you're an ESPN Insider. Its vaguely interesting. Here's a link to the original.
Even though the Villanova Wildcats are 7.5-point underdogs in Vegas, if they win, they most likely will win by seven or more points. If the North Carolina Tar Heels beat the Cats, expect a double-digit margin (around 15 points). In other words, you can ignore the spread.
The two outcomes hing on two stats: 3-point shooting percentage and rebounding.
When Villanova won in simulations, the Wildcats shot 38 percent from 3-point range while North Carolina was a cold 31 percent. Villanova also slightly out-rebounded the Tar Heels. That makes a lot of sense, as we just saw a similar scenario play out in the Elite Eight.
In its upset win over Pittsburgh, Villanova shot just 30 percent from 3-point range, but this was better than Pitt's 27.8 percent. The undersized Villanova squad also out-rebounded one of the best rebounding teams in the country 29-27.
Free throw percentage was a huge factor for Villanova against Pittsburgh, but it will not likely be a big factor against the Tar Heels, as both teams shoot well from the line. Turnovers always play a major role, but Villanova can win even if it commits more turnovers than North Carolina. In simulation wins, Villanova averaged 13.1 turnovers to Carolina's 12.6.
When North Carolina won in simulations, the Tar Heels had the edge in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage and, most importantly, were plus-5.3 on the boards. When you combine the rebounding edge with a 3.7 turnover edge, the Tar Heels got nine more possessions out of these categories. Greater offensive efficiency (higher shooting percentages) combined with more possessions can result in an easy Carolina win.
Spread 'Em
The Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games were filled with blowouts. Other than Pittsburgh's games against Xavier and Villanova and the Kansas-Michigan State game, every game ended with a final margin of more than 10 points. The average point spread in those 12 games was 4.4, yet the average final margin was 13.4.
We are left with four very good teams, and most experts will predict close games. But if there are close games Saturday, it will be a surprise. For the season, when a team was favored by four or fewer points, the average final margin was 8.91. This is not much less than when teams are favored by 7.5 or fewer points -- 9.34 average final margin.
How Has AccuScore Performed?
Now that you know what a victory for each team will look like in the final box score, you probably want to know which team to take. You can find those simulations here.
In the meantime, our predictions for both these teams have been pretty good all season. On point spread predictions, AccuScore's predictions have generated profits for both teams:
For the record, here is AccuScore's over/under prediction records for these two teams. Both of these teams have generated profits.
| TEAM | ACCUSCORE POINT SPREAD RECORD |
|---|---|
| North Carolina | 20 Right, 13 Wrong, 60.6% accurate, +570 Units (110 risk per) |
| Villanova | 18 Right, 12 Wrong, 60.0% accurate, +480 Units |
| COMBINED | 38 Right, 25 Wrong, 60.3% accurate, +1050 Units |
Adam Lucas on Marcus Ginyard
Adam Lucas wrote a good article on why Marcus is still such a big part of this team, despite being out with an injury. Check it out here.
He makes a good point; although Marcus can't get on the game floor, he can play in practice, which really makes Danny and Wayne step up their game on off days. I wonder how much that may have contributed to Wayne's recent offensive burst.
He makes a good point; although Marcus can't get on the game floor, he can play in practice, which really makes Danny and Wayne step up their game on off days. I wonder how much that may have contributed to Wayne's recent offensive burst.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Calipari Takes Kentucky Job
The only reason this is news on this blog is because I spent about an hour of work today photoshopping this picture as an April Fool's Day joke ("TRAITOR ROY"). Thanks, John Calipari. Just another reason to hate Kentucky.
Shocker: Dook selling out to win
The Observer blog has a great in-depth look at dook's recruiting struggles in recent years- and you have to love the title: Recruiting Wall a desperate act by Dook.
"Since Duke's most recent Final Four appearance ('04), UNC has been to the Final Four three times, with one title in the bag and another just 80 minutes away.
"Since Duke's most recent Final Four appearance ('04), UNC has been to the Final Four three times, with one title in the bag and another just 80 minutes away. That's why Duke is back in the one-and-done business. Right or wrong, it's that simple."
Or You Could Mix Dark Blue with White...
Chapel Hill police are asking paint stores to restrict the sale of Carolina Blue paint this week.
I was on Franklin Street in 2005 and I don't remember people running around painting things. Maybe they should restrict the sale of fire, wooden chairs, and cars...because that should be the larger concern.
I was on Franklin Street in 2005 and I don't remember people running around painting things. Maybe they should restrict the sale of fire, wooden chairs, and cars...because that should be the larger concern.
Looking Ahead
Just a heads up to everyone... Tomorow, April 1st, is the 2009 High School McDonald's All American Game. Carolina has 4 players in the game this year, 3 on the East team and 1 on the West team. On the East are John Henson, and David and Travis Wear. On the West is Dexter Strickland. Carolina leads all schools with 4 McDonald's All American recruits. Duke, Villanova, and Oklahoma each have two recruits in the game. The ACC has 9 of the 21 decided players (Georgia Tech, FSU, and Clemson each have one). It should be fun to watch. John Henson is supposed to be Carolina's best recruit, and is considered by many to maybe have the most upside in any player graduating in 2009. Keep an eye on him. In the off season, we'll have a lot more on these guys, including personal interviews (not really).
On The Map
The Charlotte Observer is conducting a fun, useless mapping poll of sorts, asking Heels fans to post their locations in the comments section of this page in order to...well, I'm not really sure why, but they put pins in those locations on the map. I guess it shows the strength of the Tar Heel Nation?
An interesting idea, at least.
An interesting idea, at least.
Mandatory Tuesday Reading
Okay, the ubiquitous tarheelblue.com put up their Tuesday Mailbag and Tuesday Talking Points. Read the talking points, they're really interesting. Here's the coolest, I thought:
- The last time an ACC team other than Carolina advanced to at least the Elite Eight was 2004, Roy Williams's first season. This year marks the fourth time in the six-year Williams era that Carolina is the last remaining entry from the ACC in the NCAA tournament. In that span, league teams have made six appearances in the Elite Eight; Carolina owns four of those six appearances.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Oklahoma Post Game Thoughts
Yeah, I'm a little late on this. Whatever. I've just been too elated about the 72-60 win. Carolina shot around 51%, but only took 51 shots; the team averages about 66 per game on the rest of the season. So, Oklahoma managed to really slow the Tarheels down, but still couldn't beat them. Their dismal 3 point shooting (2 for 19) certainly didn't help. But by no means did the Heels play a great offensive game. They had 13 total assists to 12 turnovers, as well as fouling 19 times; Carolina averages 18 assists, 12 turnovers, and 16 fouls.
Defensively, Carolina was exceptional. They caused 20 fouls, 15 turnovers (to 9 assists), and held Oklahoma to 44% shooting. That's 60 total points for a team that averages 79 ppg. Oklahoma definitely missed some open shots, but at some point, you have to attribute it to Carolina's defense.
What about the disappearance of Tyler Hansbrough? 8 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 rebounds. Not a terrible line, but not great for him. But he only took 4 shots... that begs the question as to whether or not Tyler was really in the game plan. And, this is just speculation, but I think there's no way Roy would create a gameplan like that. Tyler has been the centerpiece of this offense for 4 years. So, what do we attribute his absense to? I really have no idea... please, if you have some insight, leave a comment, because I'm really clueless. Its not like everyone else on the team was shooting lights out. Maybe his foul trouble had a lot to do with it. But Tyler is great about not fouling, so you'd think he wouldn't change his game just because he picked up 2 fouls. Any ideas?
And, well, Tyler, we <3 you, but...
That's funny stuff.
Defensively, Carolina was exceptional. They caused 20 fouls, 15 turnovers (to 9 assists), and held Oklahoma to 44% shooting. That's 60 total points for a team that averages 79 ppg. Oklahoma definitely missed some open shots, but at some point, you have to attribute it to Carolina's defense.
What about the disappearance of Tyler Hansbrough? 8 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 rebounds. Not a terrible line, but not great for him. But he only took 4 shots... that begs the question as to whether or not Tyler was really in the game plan. And, this is just speculation, but I think there's no way Roy would create a gameplan like that. Tyler has been the centerpiece of this offense for 4 years. So, what do we attribute his absense to? I really have no idea... please, if you have some insight, leave a comment, because I'm really clueless. Its not like everyone else on the team was shooting lights out. Maybe his foul trouble had a lot to do with it. But Tyler is great about not fouling, so you'd think he wouldn't change his game just because he picked up 2 fouls. Any ideas?
And, well, Tyler, we <3 you, but...
That's funny stuff.
Hansbrough AP All-American...Again
Tyler became only the third Tar Heel (Phil Ford, Michael Jordan) to repeat as a first-team AP All-American. Ty Lawson was selected to the second-team, but keep in mind- voting occurred before the tournament began.Regardless, it's more than a bit ridiculous that 21 of the 71 voters didn't feel Hansbrough was a first-teamer. Seems like folks are spending too much time reading Stephen A. Smith and not enough time reading Alex Hurst.
Here's the complete article.
Reggie says Tyler Hansbrough will save US Economy
Check out Reggie Miller on the Dan Patrick radio show here
Miller thinks that Blake Griffin is nowhere near 6-foot-10 and will be an undersized NBA power forward and that Tyler Hansbrough will have a better pro career than Griffin.
I didn't go that far, but generally I feel that Hansbrough is already being undervalued as a pro for reasons beyond his control.
If we're going by the stats in college, Blake is a beast. But, so was Michael Beasley and he's not really taking the league by storm.
If I understand Reggie correctly, he thinks Tyler will have similar success to a Luke Walton type player, who gets drafted to a good team, gets decent playing time, earns more, improves his game, and gets a great contract when it's time. With that, I definitely agree.
Miller thinks that Blake Griffin is nowhere near 6-foot-10 and will be an undersized NBA power forward and that Tyler Hansbrough will have a better pro career than Griffin.
I didn't go that far, but generally I feel that Hansbrough is already being undervalued as a pro for reasons beyond his control.
If we're going by the stats in college, Blake is a beast. But, so was Michael Beasley and he's not really taking the league by storm.
If I understand Reggie correctly, he thinks Tyler will have similar success to a Luke Walton type player, who gets drafted to a good team, gets decent playing time, earns more, improves his game, and gets a great contract when it's time. With that, I definitely agree.
Psycho T-minus 5 days Roundup
A sampling of the buzz as the run-up to the Final Four begins:- The Heels were in their trouble range...and it was never close.
- Spitting in the River and Welcome Back Danny!
- Best UNC PG...ever?
- If you thought Blake Griffin was big...
- And that's why North Carolina will win it all in Detroit.
- If you're not an ESPN Insider, you won't be able to view this article, but just know that the Nova breakdown was not nearly as favorable to us:
"The Heels may not be so lucky in their Final Four meeting with well-balanced Villanova. The Wildcats get sizable contributions from their top seven players, with any one of them capable of stepping up for 15-plus points on a given night. Villanova has no one player as talented as Griffin, but the Cats have made that a virtue, and they'll be very hard to shut down. Of course, the same can be said for the Tar Heels."
- At least SportsNation has our back.
- Just try not to get too bored.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Chapel Hill or Bust
I should be working on a school paper, but all I can think about is what we are going to do in Chapel Hill next weekend (a trip which will hopefully extend through Tuesday, *knock on wood*).
Chapel Hill is awesome enough in the springtime, but in the springtime when it's tournament time AND the Heels are going to the Final Four....well, there's just no better place to be. So for everyone who's making the sojourn back down to the southern part of heaven to watch the game(s), here's our list of things to get in while you're in town.
First and foremost, we'll be heading straight to Top of the Hill for some much-needed and dearly missed, Old Well White. Anytime I think that a Blue Moon might suffice (because, unfortunately you can't get your hands on the Top O brews up here), I'm painfully reminded that it's just not the same. Maybe it's really girlie and, frankly, I don't really care. You can tell a lot about what kind of Tar Heel someone is by their Top O beer of choice. Whether you'll be drinking an Old Well White or a Leaderboard Lager, get to Top O and grab a seat out on the balcony, people watch down on Franklin St. for a few hours and get psyched for the game.
We'll most likely be going to 411 for dinner on Saturday night. Anyone who went to school in Chapel Hill knows that this was the go-to place to bring your parents when they were in town. I was never one to venture down to West Franklin all that much, but the food is deelish, the wine list is pretty good and it's definitely worth the "trip." For the less-civilized, late night rounds, Jimmy John's more or less speaks for itself. Why are there no franchises in the northeast? We'll have 7 Italian Night Clubs with hot peppers, please. (Although B*Skis is a very very close second).
Now for the most obvious question: where to watch the game? After it became clear tonight during the OK game that we'd be making the trip for the Final Four, the response to this question was pretty much a resounding "Not Spanky's." I still have nightmares about being in the upstairs at Spanky's watching us get put away by Kansas last year. Top O would be ideal, except that the TVs aren't great and they probably require you to put down a silly deposit and your first born child to reserve a spot to stand in line to maybe get a table. No thanks. What does that leave? Hams? Potentially. My personal preference would be to watch it at He's Not Here if they're showing the game on the outdoor projector like they have done in the past. And if we don't come out on top, at least we'll have Blue Cups to drown our sorrows in.
Blue Cups!
Finally, while the bookstore will probably be packed with everyone and their mom, you know Johnny T-Shirts will have a good variety of Final Four t-shirts and your other various Carolina trinkets. Somehow, I'm pretty sure that I'll use the "How often am I in Chapel Hill anymore now" rationale and come out with a fight-song playing bottle-opener or other equally useless thing.
Wanting this t-shirt. Singing pen? Yes, please!
"And sometimes when the Springtime comes, and the sifting moonlight falls They'll think again of this night here and of these old brown walls Of white Old Well, and of Old South with bell's deep booming tone, They'll think again of Chapel Hill and thinking, come back home." -Thomas Wolfe
Micah: Are you convinced yet?
Chapel Hill is awesome enough in the springtime, but in the springtime when it's tournament time AND the Heels are going to the Final Four....well, there's just no better place to be. So for everyone who's making the sojourn back down to the southern part of heaven to watch the game(s), here's our list of things to get in while you're in town.
First and foremost, we'll be heading straight to Top of the Hill for some much-needed and dearly missed, Old Well White. Anytime I think that a Blue Moon might suffice (because, unfortunately you can't get your hands on the Top O brews up here), I'm painfully reminded that it's just not the same. Maybe it's really girlie and, frankly, I don't really care. You can tell a lot about what kind of Tar Heel someone is by their Top O beer of choice. Whether you'll be drinking an Old Well White or a Leaderboard Lager, get to Top O and grab a seat out on the balcony, people watch down on Franklin St. for a few hours and get psyched for the game.
Old. Well. White. The Top O Scene
Now for the most obvious question: where to watch the game? After it became clear tonight during the OK game that we'd be making the trip for the Final Four, the response to this question was pretty much a resounding "Not Spanky's." I still have nightmares about being in the upstairs at Spanky's watching us get put away by Kansas last year. Top O would be ideal, except that the TVs aren't great and they probably require you to put down a silly deposit and your first born child to reserve a spot to stand in line to maybe get a table. No thanks. What does that leave? Hams? Potentially. My personal preference would be to watch it at He's Not Here if they're showing the game on the outdoor projector like they have done in the past. And if we don't come out on top, at least we'll have Blue Cups to drown our sorrows in.
Finally, while the bookstore will probably be packed with everyone and their mom, you know Johnny T-Shirts will have a good variety of Final Four t-shirts and your other various Carolina trinkets. Somehow, I'm pretty sure that I'll use the "How often am I in Chapel Hill anymore now" rationale and come out with a fight-song playing bottle-opener or other equally useless thing.
Pack up your baby blue and get excited, it's Chapel Hill or bust!
"And sometimes when the Springtime comes, and the sifting moonlight falls They'll think again of this night here and of these old brown walls Of white Old Well, and of Old South with bell's deep booming tone, They'll think again of Chapel Hill and thinking, come back home." -Thomas Wolfe
Micah: Are you convinced yet?
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Jeff Capel
Jeff Capel is the coach of Oklahoma. If you remember his name, here's why (oh, and if Jonathon or Alex removes this clip from the post, I can't blame them, so youtube "The Capel Shot").
I hope our players have seen this clip.
Oh, by the way. That shot sent it to overtime, but Carolina won that game.
I hope our players have seen this clip.
Oh, by the way. That shot sent it to overtime, but Carolina won that game.
Peaking at the Right Time - Thoughts on The Gonzaga Game
Last night, Carolina dismantled Gonzaga 98-77. But it wasn't even as close as the score would indicate. The game was over with about 10 minutes to go in the first half. Carolina shot 11-19 (58%!!) from 3 point range, 53% for all field goals, out rebounded Gonzaga by 40-28, and had 23 (!!!) assists to the Zags 10. Danny Green seemed to continue on his upward shooting trend, but no one is going to complain about his playing. Check out his stat line: 13 points, 3 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals, and 2 blocks. He didn't NEED to rebound- Tyler had 10, Wayne had 7 (who has become a rebounding machine, by the way), Ed had 5.
Carolina had assists on 63% of their baskets (23 of 36). Which means its time to talk about Ty Lawson. Ty had 9 assists to 1 turnover. That's absolutely absurd. About Ty, Mark Few, the Gonzaga coach, had this to say: "The toe injury might have helped Ty Lawson," Gonzaga coach Mark Few said. "He's playing at a great pace right now. He's not forcing anything." And he's right. Ty was flawless. All of a sudden he seems to have immaculate court vision, and is making the right decision EVERY time. It's been unbelievable to watch, and its helping everyone on the court. The ball movement of this team has become outstanding, and they relentlessly pass the ball until they find the open man.
The lone dark spot for the team was their 55.6% (15-27) free throw shooting. Mostly, that number was because of Deon (1 for 4), Ed (1 for 4), and Drew II (0-3). I think that's probably not something to worrry about. It'll average out, but I mean, if you're shooting that well from the field, you probably won't need those free throws anyway.
By the way, that game was Carolina's 99th all-time NCAA tournament win, which breaks the tie with Kentucky, leaving Carolina as the all time leading NCAA tournament game winner. That's pretty cool. Apparently Kentucky actually has 100 wins, but two don't count because of violations. Also, I think Carolina is about 7 wins back from Kentucky on the all time wins list. So we can't catch them this year, but maybe next...
Oh, and Ty said his toe didn't really tighten up until the end of the game. Hopefully this day of rest will be all he needs. Or maybe he's been faking the whole thing...
Anyway, next up: Oklahoma. Sunday, 5:05 pm. More on that later.
Carolina had assists on 63% of their baskets (23 of 36). Which means its time to talk about Ty Lawson. Ty had 9 assists to 1 turnover. That's absolutely absurd. About Ty, Mark Few, the Gonzaga coach, had this to say: "The toe injury might have helped Ty Lawson," Gonzaga coach Mark Few said. "He's playing at a great pace right now. He's not forcing anything." And he's right. Ty was flawless. All of a sudden he seems to have immaculate court vision, and is making the right decision EVERY time. It's been unbelievable to watch, and its helping everyone on the court. The ball movement of this team has become outstanding, and they relentlessly pass the ball until they find the open man.
The lone dark spot for the team was their 55.6% (15-27) free throw shooting. Mostly, that number was because of Deon (1 for 4), Ed (1 for 4), and Drew II (0-3). I think that's probably not something to worrry about. It'll average out, but I mean, if you're shooting that well from the field, you probably won't need those free throws anyway.
By the way, that game was Carolina's 99th all-time NCAA tournament win, which breaks the tie with Kentucky, leaving Carolina as the all time leading NCAA tournament game winner. That's pretty cool. Apparently Kentucky actually has 100 wins, but two don't count because of violations. Also, I think Carolina is about 7 wins back from Kentucky on the all time wins list. So we can't catch them this year, but maybe next...
Oh, and Ty said his toe didn't really tighten up until the end of the game. Hopefully this day of rest will be all he needs. Or maybe he's been faking the whole thing...
Anyway, next up: Oklahoma. Sunday, 5:05 pm. More on that later.
Friday, March 27, 2009
More on the Flex Offense
I'm not an expert on basketball stratergy, but we've been getting hundreds and hundreds of emails asking, "Jimmy, what is this flex offense you speak of?" Through my extensive Google research, I've found a site here that explains pretty simply how to run the flex. It'll help you figure out what you're watching against this Gonzaga team that's become so good at this relatively simple offense.
Step 1
Set up the offense. To run the flex offense the point guard will bring the ball up on the left side of the floor. The shooting guard should be positioned along side of him to the right. The small forward is in the left corner with the center on the left block and the power forward on the right block.
There you go. Now you can run the flex offense flawlessly.
Step 1
Set up the offense. To run the flex offense the point guard will bring the ball up on the left side of the floor. The shooting guard should be positioned along side of him to the right. The small forward is in the left corner with the center on the left block and the power forward on the right block.
Step 2
Trigger the offense with a pass. The point guard should pass the ball to the shooting guard. When the ball is passed, the center will set a back screen for the small forward and the small forward will cut to the middle of the lane looking for a pass from the shooting guard. This is the basic "flex" cut that the offense is named after. As the small forward cuts through the power forward should move out to the three point line on the right side to make room for the small forward to take his place on the right block. Step 3
Screen the screener. The next step when you run the flex offense is for the point guard to set a down screen for the center who had just set a pick for the small forward. The center then flashes to the free throw line. If he is open, the shooting guard should pass to him. If not he should run all the way out and replace the point guard at the top of the offense. Step 4
Reset the offense. The formation is now flipped from when the offense started. The shooting guard has not moved yet, but the center is now up top, the point guard is on the offside baseline, the small forward is on the right block and the power forward is now on the ball side baseline. Step5
Flip the play. Now the offense runs the same play, just to the opposite direction. The shooting guard passes to the center, the small forward sets a back screen for the power forward who cuts through the lane, the shooting guard sets a down screen for the small forward and we are once again set up in the same formation as we were at the beginning of the play. Players have shifted spots, but the same basic spots on the floor are occupied. Step6
Run the flex offense over and over. This is a very basic offense, but if the screens are set properly, there should be ample opportunities to get open shots. If it is run correctly no one will be able to dominate the ball and everyone will get a chance to score. There you go. Now you can run the flex offense flawlessly.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Toe Update
From Adam Lucas' Memphis Notebook arrives some not-so-good news.
"I asked him this morning (about the toe)," Roy Williams said. "I said, `On a scale of 1 to 10, 10 being great, how was it yesterday?' He said it was a 6. I asked him how it was today. He said a 6. I asked how it was on Saturday before the LSU game. He said an 8. It has taken a long time to heal. When it happened, they told me it was going to be this way. Being more positive, I was hoping it'd be better by this time. This time it hasn't swollen, but it has been painful."
ESPN Sweet 16 Power Rankings
The March to Motown blog at ESPN.com released their Sweet 16 Power Rankings and third round predictions. Though a bunch of their personalities picked UNC to win it all, this is the first definitive post I've seen in a while that indicates they believe the Heels to be the team to beat. A spritz:
1. North Carolina
The Tar Heels struggled to pull away from LSU in their second-round game, but point guard Ty Lawson more than answered questions about his lingering toe injury. Unless Lawson re-injures his right toe, the Tar Heels might be the team to beat the rest of the way. No other team has as much inside-outside balance or overall depth.
And against Gonzaga:
North Carolina 87, Gonzaga 73
1. North Carolina
The Tar Heels struggled to pull away from LSU in their second-round game, but point guard Ty Lawson more than answered questions about his lingering toe injury. Unless Lawson re-injures his right toe, the Tar Heels might be the team to beat the rest of the way. No other team has as much inside-outside balance or overall depth.
And against Gonzaga:
North Carolina 87, Gonzaga 73
Love/Hate with Gottlieb and Fraschilla
And no, I'm not saying I love Doug Gottlieb and hate Fran Fraschilla. I hate both those guys. But they breakdown what there is to love and hate about each of the remaining 16 teams in the tourney on ESPN.com. A little Carolina taster:
Transition basketball and Ty Lawson are basically interchangeable. Without the 5-11 junior, the Tar Heels don't have a dominant running game. UNC scored more than 90 points 15 times prior to Lawson's injury at the end of the ACC regular season, in large part because of his blinding coast-to-coast quickness. In the two ACC tournament games without Lawson, Roy Williams' club averaged 75 points a game, and in the loss to Florida State it had a season-low 64 possessions.
North Carolina
What I Like: The transition gameTransition basketball and Ty Lawson are basically interchangeable. Without the 5-11 junior, the Tar Heels don't have a dominant running game. UNC scored more than 90 points 15 times prior to Lawson's injury at the end of the ACC regular season, in large part because of his blinding coast-to-coast quickness. In the two ACC tournament games without Lawson, Roy Williams' club averaged 75 points a game, and in the loss to Florida State it had a season-low 64 possessions.
It's clear that the odds of North Carolina winning it all improve with Lawson back in the lineup. He has become a more dangerous outside shooter (47 percent on 3s), gets to the rim and finishes at a 57 percent rate inside the arc and is responsible for more than one-third of the team's assists when he is on the floor.
What I Don't Like: Ty Lawson and the overuse of depth
If Lawson is not healthy, this team's chances of advancing become much slighter. Quite simply, Lawson is the straw that stirs the drink. Additionally, Roy Williams has a tendency to over-sub his players and under-utilize timeouts. If you can capitalize on a weak lineup against UNC, the Tar Heels can surrender momentum like they did when they blew a 16-point lead against Maryland. The depth, however, allows the Heels to make more shots late due to their much fresher legs … or so they say.
Gonzaga Diet Game Guide
Carolina vs. Gonzaga, Friday, April 27th at 10:00 pm (wtf CBS), in Memphis. The line is now Carolina -8.5, with the money line at -400 (damn), and the o/u still 162. Carolina is coming off a 84-70 win over LSU, a game that was closer than the score would indicate. The bench only scored 9 points that game, all of them from Ed Davis (on 4-6 shooting). Three starters (Hansbrough, Lawson, and Ellington) were in double figures. The entire team shot 54.2% from the field, but had 5 shots fewer than LSU because of their rebounding. Hansbrough didn't have a great game (for him), with 15 points on 6-11 shooting, 8 rounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, with 3 fouls and 3 turnovers. He also disappeared in the second half of the game. Luckily, that's when the old Ty Lawson showed up, scoring 23 points on 7 for 13 shooting. Ellington also played well, again, with 23 points on 9 for 19 shooting. And, also again, Danny Green had a poor shooting night, going 3 for 10. Wayne has more than picked up Danny's slack against lesser teams, but against the high scoring Zags, Carolina will really need Danny as an offensive threat.
Gonzaga barely escaped Western Kentucky in their last game, winning 83-81. All five of their starters scored in double figures (more on this later), and they had 13 bench points from 3 players. Really, Gonzaga escaped on a last minute 3 pointer by Austin Daye. Indicative of both Gonzaga's unwillingness to defend, and of the out of their minds play of WKU, the Zags allowed WKU to shoot 48% from 3 point range, which is really just absurd. WKU scored almost 45% of its points from beyond the arc. Gonzaga does share the ball well, and has 4 (almost 6) players averaging double figures. They have a lot of scoring threats. Additionally, they run the flex offense, which has given Carolina trouble in the past (see: Maryland, BC).
Now, a lot of stats would lead you to believe Gonzaga is a solid defending team. They give up around 62 ppg; however, when you look at teams from the RPI top 25, they give up just about 80 ppg. They do force around 7 steals per game and 5 blocks per game. But those are averages throughout the whole season, and most of their competition has been in WCC play, which is not a very good conference (lets be honest, it sucks). They're only 3-3 vs. RPI top 25 opponents (wins against Tennessee twice, and Oklahoma State once, and losses to UConn, Memphis, and Utah), with a strength of schedule of 92 (worse than LSU's). They're ranked 26th in RPI, which really says they got a higher seed than they may have deserved; probably because a.) they're riding an 11 game win streak that managed to get them a #10 ranking the AP poll, and b.) they're Gonzaga. They're not quite a mid-major, but not a BCS team; people root for them because they're an original Cinderella.
It should be an interesting game. I'm interested to see how Roy calls the defense, because the flex offense is really geared towards beating man to man, with a lot of ball screens and pick and rolls. Is it possible Roy could opt for a zone? Probably not. But I hope he's willing to try. I think a key matchup will be the front court battle between Deon/Ed/Tyler and Josh Heytvelt and Austin Daye, the Zags big men, who both average between 13-15 ppg and 7 rpg. They're often the first and second options for the Zags, so denying them the ball could go a long way towards forcing the Zags into shots they don't want.
As always, we'll try to update with news on Ty's toe. It sounds like its doing much better; but hey, even if he's in pain, as long as he plays like he did last game, who cares?
Gonzaga barely escaped Western Kentucky in their last game, winning 83-81. All five of their starters scored in double figures (more on this later), and they had 13 bench points from 3 players. Really, Gonzaga escaped on a last minute 3 pointer by Austin Daye. Indicative of both Gonzaga's unwillingness to defend, and of the out of their minds play of WKU, the Zags allowed WKU to shoot 48% from 3 point range, which is really just absurd. WKU scored almost 45% of its points from beyond the arc. Gonzaga does share the ball well, and has 4 (almost 6) players averaging double figures. They have a lot of scoring threats. Additionally, they run the flex offense, which has given Carolina trouble in the past (see: Maryland, BC).
Now, a lot of stats would lead you to believe Gonzaga is a solid defending team. They give up around 62 ppg; however, when you look at teams from the RPI top 25, they give up just about 80 ppg. They do force around 7 steals per game and 5 blocks per game. But those are averages throughout the whole season, and most of their competition has been in WCC play, which is not a very good conference (lets be honest, it sucks). They're only 3-3 vs. RPI top 25 opponents (wins against Tennessee twice, and Oklahoma State once, and losses to UConn, Memphis, and Utah), with a strength of schedule of 92 (worse than LSU's). They're ranked 26th in RPI, which really says they got a higher seed than they may have deserved; probably because a.) they're riding an 11 game win streak that managed to get them a #10 ranking the AP poll, and b.) they're Gonzaga. They're not quite a mid-major, but not a BCS team; people root for them because they're an original Cinderella.
It should be an interesting game. I'm interested to see how Roy calls the defense, because the flex offense is really geared towards beating man to man, with a lot of ball screens and pick and rolls. Is it possible Roy could opt for a zone? Probably not. But I hope he's willing to try. I think a key matchup will be the front court battle between Deon/Ed/Tyler and Josh Heytvelt and Austin Daye, the Zags big men, who both average between 13-15 ppg and 7 rpg. They're often the first and second options for the Zags, so denying them the ball could go a long way towards forcing the Zags into shots they don't want.
As always, we'll try to update with news on Ty's toe. It sounds like its doing much better; but hey, even if he's in pain, as long as he plays like he did last game, who cares?
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
PG contingency plan
Ty Lawson has said he will play Friday against Gonzaga. But with all the uncertainty and ever-increasing stakes, don't think Roy's going ahead without a plan- he has a secret weapon.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Pop the Champaign!
Boy, I sure do love watching this commercial 5-6 times every time I turn on an NCAA game.
I can't imagine Illinois fans love it. How do you feel Jeffrey?
I can't imagine Illinois fans love it. How do you feel Jeffrey?
AP: Lawson to play vs. Zags
I don't think there was any doubt that he would play, but the good news is that the swelling after the LSU game was "nothing like what followed the regular-season finale against Duke that forced him to the sideline." Story here.
The Difference Maker
In modern pro sports, compiling and analyzing statistics is becoming ever more critical to teams' effectiveness in evaluating players. In baseball, some believe that stats can be quantified better at an individual level and even measure players from different eras, where in basketball, stats are still being debated. Major League Baseball uses the minor leagues along with detailed individual stats to make decisions on which players will succeed at a major league level and how much to pay those players. Generally, this system works. The NFL uses different tests, college performance on the field, the combine, and team's individual evaluation to evaluate players for many different types of positions. In the NBA, since draft camps are usually voluntary, and only a handful of guys work out for individual teams (with varying results), most of the evaluation is based on a player's success in college/high school/abroad.
Let's focus on college.
The NBA Draft provides a consensus on how the professional league evaluates college talent, and chooses the players it feels will succeed. Over the years, different accepted trends have become staples of the draft.
1) You can't teach height
2) Draft based on need (though maybe not always - see Atlanta #2)
3) Upside potential > experience
Now obviously these ideas are not always adhered, but most teams agree on what constitutes a bad player, a good player, and a great player. And a lot of that basis has to do with the statistics accumulated in college.
Where am I going with all of this? Let's get to it.
I've pasted below the stats for five players. Four of those players were drafted in the top five of the NBA Draft in their respective years. The last player is still active in college. Each player played at least two years of college basketball and the stats listed here are career numbers. Finally, all five players are between 6'9" and 6'10", weigh in at or around 250lbs and play the power forward position.
Let's focus on college.
The NBA Draft provides a consensus on how the professional league evaluates college talent, and chooses the players it feels will succeed. Over the years, different accepted trends have become staples of the draft.
1) You can't teach height
2) Draft based on need (though maybe not always - see Atlanta #2)
3) Upside potential > experience
Now obviously these ideas are not always adhered, but most teams agree on what constitutes a bad player, a good player, and a great player. And a lot of that basis has to do with the statistics accumulated in college.
Where am I going with all of this? Let's get to it.
I've pasted below the stats for five players. Four of those players were drafted in the top five of the NBA Draft in their respective years. The last player is still active in college. Each player played at least two years of college basketball and the stats listed here are career numbers. Finally, all five players are between 6'9" and 6'10", weigh in at or around 250lbs and play the power forward position.
Look at these stats. The leader for each category is highlighted in green. What do you see?
From the first four, the NBA clearly saw a player that was one of the five best that year, and one would assume if a player achieved those statistical levels in a college career, they too would be considered one of the best. I mean, all the players averaged 10+ points, though the currently active college player averages over 20. All the players averaged at least 7.5 rebounds with varying assist and steal figures, each around 1. All four NBA players averaged at least 1 block in college, the active college player did not. All five players have at least 50% FG percentage, though the active college player shot nearly 80% from the free throw line and can hit a 3-pointer. And finally, all five players averaged nearly 1.50 PPS (points per shot), though the active college player tied for the highest of the five with 1.64.
After looking at these stats, what conclusions could reasonably be drawn? I would think that the active college player, based on nearly identical height/weight and equal or better statistics throughout college, would be considered one of the top picks in the draft, whenever he decided to leave college. I mean, what professional team would not want a player who is able to achieve the same numbers as at least four other top 5 NBA draft picks?
Well, the truth may surprise you. Click here to see the players names.
Now stop. Before you think what you've been conditioned to think. Before you rationalize the reasons why he is not as good as the other four guys there, or why you know instinctually that he will not be as good a pro. Just stop. Is your judgement clouded? What exactly makes him less valuable? What makes him different from these four guys? He's just as tall as they are, he weighs the same, his numbers are nearly identical across the board and he even offers some talents that these guys didn't. Oh wait, now you see it. You know why you think he's not as good. You see the difference. I don't even need to say it.
Now ask yourself, is that fair? Is it right? Maybe he's not as good as those four guys--but tell me, is that really the reason?
What good is money if it can't inspire terror in your fellow man?
While I don't condone off shore gambling sites (note: this is not true), I noticed a little something about the lines for the Gonzaga game. The over/under for the game is set at 162 right now. During the regular season, Carolina was over 17 times out of 28 (2 games had no o/u), which is 60%. But when the line was set at 162 or below, Carolina was over 11 times out of 14 (78%). I predict the o/u rising steadily until game time. Especially because I think this Gonzaga team doesn't tire easily, and there should be plenty of running until the game ends. Anyway. If you lose money, you probably deserve it, for listening to me.
Mandatory Tuesday Reading
This should be automatic for most of you... but in case you need a reminder.
Tarheel Blue Mailbag
Tuesday Talking Points
A little disconcerting... "Danny Green has shot better than 50 percent from the field in just two of his career 13 NCAA tournament games."
Tarheel Blue Mailbag
Tuesday Talking Points
A little disconcerting... "Danny Green has shot better than 50 percent from the field in just two of his career 13 NCAA tournament games."
Monday, March 23, 2009
Hansbrough Named Naismith Finalist
We all saw this coming. Register to vote by texting VOTE to 51234. The other finalists are Blake Griffin, Hasheem Thabeet, and DeJuan Blair. For a supposedly talentless draft, that's a pretty dominant list of players. More stuff here. From that article:
ABOUT THE FINALISTS
DeJuan Blair: The only unanimous All-BIG EAST First Team selection, Blair averaged 15.6 points and a league-leading 12.4 rebounds per game. He ranks among national leaders in offensive rebounding (first), total rebounding (fourth) and field goal percentage (16th). The 6-7 sophomore and Pittsburgh native helped lead the Panthers to a 28-3 record and the school's first-ever No. 1 ranking.
Blake Griffin: The 6-10 sophomore led the Big 12 in scoring (22.1 ppg), rebounding (14.2 rpg) and field goal percentage (.634) while ranking fourth in blocked shots (1.3 bpg). The Big 12 coaches' preseason choice for player of the year, Griffin has set a single-season OU record with his 25 double-doubles (three shy of the Big 12 record). He has already set a Big 12 single-season mark with his 425 rebounds. The Oklahoma City native also has 13 games of at least 20 points and 15 rebounds this year, eclipsing the previous league record of seven.
Tyler Hansbrough: Hansbrough was a first-team All-ACC performer who has led North Carolina to a 30-4 season and regular-season ACC championship, while averaging 21.4 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. The 6-9 senior from Poplar Bluff, Mo., helped the Tar Heels gain a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament's South Regional. The reigning Naismith Trophy winner is the third Tar Heel (Michael Jordan, 1984 and Antawn Jamison, 1998) and the 16th player from the ACC to win the award. He is a three-time finalist for the Naismith Trophy.
Hasheem Thabeet: The BIG EAST Defensive Player of the Year and first-team all-conference selection averaged 13.6 points and 10.8 rebounds per game. His average of 4.5 blocks per game was tops in the BIG EAST and second in the nation. The 7-3 junior center from Tanzania helped lead the Huskies to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Other notable men's college player of the year winners include Ralph Sampson (1981-1983), Larry Bird (1979), Patrick Ewing (1985) and Christian Laettner (1992).
Take A Deep Breath
So the first week of the tournament's over. Time to regroup and assess what happened this weekend. Tar Heels rout? Check. Tar Heels gut-check? Hip-check. Bracket fucked? Triple check. This week's outlook? Chalk.
The Heels plan to leave the friendly confines of the Greensboro Coliseum (did you think the dookies cheering against Tyler would make him play worse?) and head for Memphis, where 4th seeded Gonzaga awaits, possibly followed by either 3 seed Syracuse or 2 seed Oklahoma. The road seems treacherous. Everyone and their mentally-impaired (yet perfectly functional with a keyboard) brother will be talking and chatting and blogging this week about the pitfalls that await Roy's boys.
Don't listen to them.
Don't listen to me, either, for that matter- the point of this blog is that three restless Heels fans with access to the internet can report on their favorite team about as well as the well-connected sports press. We're biased and we say things to make ourselves feel better (or worse, Alex) because that's what people do when the stakes are high and they have to wait four more days for the fucking game.
But I digress- don't listen to anybody. The Tar Heels are in the Sweet Sixteen. If they play as well as they did against LSU and Radford, they've got four more games and a bunch of nets to cut down. If they play as well as they did against Maryland back in February... I'm not going to finish that thought. We all know what will happen.
But even that won't happen until Friday night. Between now and then, the Heels are still one of the best teams in the country with a shot to be THE best. That's all we know for sure. Everything else, the buzzing and commentating, is speculation. It's the same type of speculation that created $4/gallon gas last summer. It's the type of speculation that is spouted profusely because it's supposed make the game more exciting. It's the type of speculation that won't hold up in a court of law.
This will: for the next four days, the Heels are invincible. They will not lose. The Zags can't beat them, though if they tried, they'd need better columns than a State fan could write to have any chance. This won't cut it.
So take a deep breath. Catch up on the shows you DVRed. Sleep soundly every night. And save all your anxious energy for the things that really affect the outcome of the game: superstitions and screaming at the TV.
Maybe this picture of Erin Andrews showing her true colors will help you relax.
The Heels plan to leave the friendly confines of the Greensboro Coliseum (did you think the dookies cheering against Tyler would make him play worse?) and head for Memphis, where 4th seeded Gonzaga awaits, possibly followed by either 3 seed Syracuse or 2 seed Oklahoma. The road seems treacherous. Everyone and their mentally-impaired (yet perfectly functional with a keyboard) brother will be talking and chatting and blogging this week about the pitfalls that await Roy's boys.
Don't listen to them.
Don't listen to me, either, for that matter- the point of this blog is that three restless Heels fans with access to the internet can report on their favorite team about as well as the well-connected sports press. We're biased and we say things to make ourselves feel better (or worse, Alex) because that's what people do when the stakes are high and they have to wait four more days for the fucking game.
But I digress- don't listen to anybody. The Tar Heels are in the Sweet Sixteen. If they play as well as they did against LSU and Radford, they've got four more games and a bunch of nets to cut down. If they play as well as they did against Maryland back in February... I'm not going to finish that thought. We all know what will happen.
But even that won't happen until Friday night. Between now and then, the Heels are still one of the best teams in the country with a shot to be THE best. That's all we know for sure. Everything else, the buzzing and commentating, is speculation. It's the same type of speculation that created $4/gallon gas last summer. It's the type of speculation that is spouted profusely because it's supposed make the game more exciting. It's the type of speculation that won't hold up in a court of law.
This will: for the next four days, the Heels are invincible. They will not lose. The Zags can't beat them, though if they tried, they'd need better columns than a State fan could write to have any chance. This won't cut it.
So take a deep breath. Catch up on the shows you DVRed. Sleep soundly every night. And save all your anxious energy for the things that really affect the outcome of the game: superstitions and screaming at the TV.
Maybe this picture of Erin Andrews showing her true colors will help you relax.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Watch Your Mouth, Ric Bucher
ESPN Insiders were treated to an article, written by Ric Bucher, about how NBA GMs view March Madness. Here's a paragraph from that article.
That article also, by the way, uses Sean May as evidence of a player being overly touted because of a dominating March/April performance, and then being a bust in the NBA. Sean May is 24 years old. Let's give him a couple more years before we decide he's a bust.
And there's one more factor that makes tourney scouting a risky business. Many general managers believe that some college coaches don't play their best young players as much as the players' talent warrants, in order to keep them in school longer. But once teams get to the tournament, winning becomes the primary focus, and their playing time increases. If they respond with a great tournament run, as May's teammate, Marvin Williams, did as a freshman in 2005, the thinking goes, "Man, he could've been doing this all year." Not surprisingly, Williams vaulted up draft boards.I think the insinuation that Roy held Marvin back from starting because he was trying to hide his talent is a little ridiculous. Roy is a student of Dean Smith. In the Dean Smith era of college basketball, one and done freshmen weren't really in anyone's consciousness, so holding back a freshman in the hopes of keeping him another year would be an absurd idea. Dean Smith gave playing time preferentially to upperclassmen because they've earned it, not because he's trying to hurt a player's career.
That article also, by the way, uses Sean May as evidence of a player being overly touted because of a dominating March/April performance, and then being a bust in the NBA. Sean May is 24 years old. Let's give him a couple more years before we decide he's a bust.
Some Thoughts on the LSU Game
-Ty Lawson can still dominate, even when he's hurt. He clearly in a lot of pain, and during the press conference afterward, said he could feel his toe swelling. He said he felt a pop in his toe in the first half, which could have been dislodged scar tissue, but could also have been something more serious like a ligament or a tendon. My guess is they'll do an MRI to double check, but hopefully this week he can get back to practice.
-Ed Eazy-E (you heard it here first) Davis, once again, had a great game. He had 9 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 blocks in 25 minutes. That's more rebounding per minute (.28 rebounds per
minute) than Tyler (.26 rebounds per minute) or Deon (.24 rebounds per minute) have averaged throughout the year. Ed's yearlong average is a spectacular .36 rebounds per minute. That means if he were averaging Hansbrough style minutes (30.1 mpg), he'd be pulling down over 10 rebounds a game. Anyway, despite losing the rebounding battle to LSU, Carolina pulled down more rebounds when it mattered in the final 12 minutes (I said rebounds 9 times in 5 sentences). Rebounds (10).
-If you haven't realized, Ed has taken over Deon's minutes. Deon played just 15 minutes to Ed's 25. Considering how well Deon has been playing, you get the feeling that Roy sees something special in Eazy-E. Drew II played only 3 minutes, despite also having played well in Ty's absence.
-Roy has had the reputation of being inflexible in the way he coaches. I've personally criticized him in the past for his unwillingness to use timeouts, overuse of bench, and other minor, nitpicky aspects of his coaching. But against LSU, he used timeouts early in the second half when LSU
began to make their run (and by the way, that's when Carolina began to guard again; in the timeout, Roy looked at Danny, Tyler, and Bobby, and asked them if this was how they wanted to end their careers). He's been more frugal with his bench, and he's become more willing to take playing time from upperclassmen and give it to freshman. And you have me to thank for that (maybe not).
-Next up: Friday, March 27th against Gonzaga. We'll have plenty about them, but as some of you may remember, this could vaguely be a revenge game for Carolina. A lot of players on both teams are still around, so maybe a video of that game should be looped in the Dean Dome while the Carolina players practice this week. Just a thought.
-Ed Eazy-E (you heard it here first) Davis, once again, had a great game. He had 9 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 blocks in 25 minutes. That's more rebounding per minute (.28 rebounds per
minute) than Tyler (.26 rebounds per minute) or Deon (.24 rebounds per minute) have averaged throughout the year. Ed's yearlong average is a spectacular .36 rebounds per minute. That means if he were averaging Hansbrough style minutes (30.1 mpg), he'd be pulling down over 10 rebounds a game. Anyway, despite losing the rebounding battle to LSU, Carolina pulled down more rebounds when it mattered in the final 12 minutes (I said rebounds 9 times in 5 sentences). Rebounds (10).-If you haven't realized, Ed has taken over Deon's minutes. Deon played just 15 minutes to Ed's 25. Considering how well Deon has been playing, you get the feeling that Roy sees something special in Eazy-E. Drew II played only 3 minutes, despite also having played well in Ty's absence.
-Roy has had the reputation of being inflexible in the way he coaches. I've personally criticized him in the past for his unwillingness to use timeouts, overuse of bench, and other minor, nitpicky aspects of his coaching. But against LSU, he used timeouts early in the second half when LSU
began to make their run (and by the way, that's when Carolina began to guard again; in the timeout, Roy looked at Danny, Tyler, and Bobby, and asked them if this was how they wanted to end their careers). He's been more frugal with his bench, and he's become more willing to take playing time from upperclassmen and give it to freshman. And you have me to thank for that (maybe not).-Next up: Friday, March 27th against Gonzaga. We'll have plenty about them, but as some of you may remember, this could vaguely be a revenge game for Carolina. A lot of players on both teams are still around, so maybe a video of that game should be looped in the Dean Dome while the Carolina players practice this week. Just a thought.
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Ty Saves the Day
Here at the ontheheels headquarters, tensions were running high as LSU tied the game up at 63. Jimmy began to sob, Alex filled the snack bowls, and Jonathon got drunk. But thanks to the spectacular play of Ty Lawson, Carolina managed to win by 14; meanwhile keeping LSU to a mere 70 points. Their plan of running with Carolina didn't really come to fruition. There actually wasn't too many transition points throughout the whole game, but even so, Carolina won the points off turnovers battle. Ty ended the game with 23 points, 6 assists, 3 steals, and 1 rebound, all on a painful toe that kept him grimacing the whole game.
Meanwhile, Carolina held LSU to 45% FG shooting. Carolina's defense forced 15 turnovers and had 5 blocks. As thrilling as Wayne and Danny's clutch 3s were, seeing Deon Thompson guarding his man out past the 3 point line and Tyler stealing the ball out at 20 feet was even better. This team decided to guard when it mattered, and we saw the lockdown defense of which this team is capable. I think they've convinced themselves they can overcome any team, talent wise, and from here on out it becomes a matter of execution. And I'll take that over lacking the talent any day.
Meanwhile, Carolina held LSU to 45% FG shooting. Carolina's defense forced 15 turnovers and had 5 blocks. As thrilling as Wayne and Danny's clutch 3s were, seeing Deon Thompson guarding his man out past the 3 point line and Tyler stealing the ball out at 20 feet was even better. This team decided to guard when it mattered, and we saw the lockdown defense of which this team is capable. I think they've convinced themselves they can overcome any team, talent wise, and from here on out it becomes a matter of execution. And I'll take that over lacking the talent any day.
Ed Davis Profile
The Charlotte Observer has a good article profiling Easy Ed Davis. He's been playing really well lately and has emerged as Carolina's most important bench player. His success could be vital throughout the tournament on both ends of the floor.
LSU Gameplan: Run
LSU has decided its going to try to run with Carolina. They're basing their strategy on tapes from UNC's 85-78 loss to BC, in which Tyrese Rice played extremely well and could seemingly score at will. But the real story of that game, in my opinion, was NOT Tyrese Rice; it was Carolina's abysmal 38.4% field goal shooting, and 31.8% 3 point field goal shooting. Every player besides Ed Davis shot below 50%. It's not often all the Heels are playing so terribly at once, so apparently, LSU's strategy is to pray Carolina misses shots. Which, with the way they've been playing, doesn't seem likely. This seems to be a common strategy for out of conference teams playing Carolina, and it hasn't been effective this year. At the very least, it'll make for a fast paced, exciting game.
ACC Teams Afraid of the Dark
Rise and shine Tar Heel fans. It's game day. Eight hours and 45 minutes until tip-off and I hope you're pumped. Knowing you have a game coming up is a great feeling, one that a number of ACC teams will not be able to feel for quite some time.
After going 3-1 on the first day and a half of tournament play, ACC teams went 0-3 on Saturday night. Big Ten teams won both ACC/B10 matchups by a combined five points. Aside from Carolina, who tends to own the Big Ten in NCAA Tournament play, it seems the Big Ten is winning the Challenge that actually matters. The most surprising ACC loss is #4 seed Wake Forest who got taken out behind the woodshed by Cleveland State. This one wasn't even close, though their tournament performances since 2000 have been underwhelming (at 5-6 overall with one Sweet 16 appearance). So, I don't know about you, but looking at this team (young, inexperienced, struggling down the stretch) and the matchup with Clev. St. (who beat #3 seed Syracuse at home on a buzzer shot), maybe it wasn't such a surprise.
I consider the FSU loss a bigger surprise because in my opinion Wisconsin was the "last team in," not an Arizona squad that has beaten some people and could still beat some more. But the one thing not beating people right now is the ACC, hopefully Carolina is able to change that.
And with the sunset in Greensboro predicted to be 7:32pm, let's make sure we leave no room for doubt. Duke, on the other hand, their tip-off is 8:15pm, and they better hope they have their blankeys.
After going 3-1 on the first day and a half of tournament play, ACC teams went 0-3 on Saturday night. Big Ten teams won both ACC/B10 matchups by a combined five points. Aside from Carolina, who tends to own the Big Ten in NCAA Tournament play, it seems the Big Ten is winning the Challenge that actually matters. The most surprising ACC loss is #4 seed Wake Forest who got taken out behind the woodshed by Cleveland State. This one wasn't even close, though their tournament performances since 2000 have been underwhelming (at 5-6 overall with one Sweet 16 appearance). So, I don't know about you, but looking at this team (young, inexperienced, struggling down the stretch) and the matchup with Clev. St. (who beat #3 seed Syracuse at home on a buzzer shot), maybe it wasn't such a surprise.
I consider the FSU loss a bigger surprise because in my opinion Wisconsin was the "last team in," not an Arizona squad that has beaten some people and could still beat some more. But the one thing not beating people right now is the ACC, hopefully Carolina is able to change that.
And with the sunset in Greensboro predicted to be 7:32pm, let's make sure we leave no room for doubt. Duke, on the other hand, their tip-off is 8:15pm, and they better hope they have their blankeys.
Friday, March 20, 2009
Number Crunching
In an article on scout.com, Greg Barnes has done more research than I'm willing to do, so I'll cannibalize his article. He breaks down 2 main correlations to Carolina's success over the past couple of seasons. To start with, an apparently obvious one: field goal percentage. Greg notes that Carolina is 61-1 over the past two seasons when shooting better than 40% from the field; an extremely modest number. Remember, of course, that correlation is not causation, but the logical conclusions from this include a.) Carolina's less than stellar defensive play isn't as much of a concern as we thought, and b.) Carolina really controls its own destiny. Benson has made the argument to me that Carolina's success is dependent on their own play, not the play of the opposing squad (more or less), and this certainly lends some creedence to that argument.
A second factor Greg notes, and even more correlationally significant than the first, is that Carolina is 47-0 when Wayne Ellington shoots 50%+ from the floor. Obviously, that doesn't mean that Wayne is beating teams on his own, but that his success opens up the offense. Roy Williams shrugged the statistic off. "“I would bet that we’re 117-0 when we score more points than the other team, too."
Frankly, I don't read too much into these type of statistics. They're interesting, but they don't really account for much; like your high school stats teacher said a thousand times, correlation is not causation. I think other metrics like Hollinger's PER are more interesting anyway. If you like these sorts of stats though, read Freakonomics.
A second factor Greg notes, and even more correlationally significant than the first, is that Carolina is 47-0 when Wayne Ellington shoots 50%+ from the floor. Obviously, that doesn't mean that Wayne is beating teams on his own, but that his success opens up the offense. Roy Williams shrugged the statistic off. "“I would bet that we’re 117-0 when we score more points than the other team, too."
Frankly, I don't read too much into these type of statistics. They're interesting, but they don't really account for much; like your high school stats teacher said a thousand times, correlation is not causation. I think other metrics like Hollinger's PER are more interesting anyway. If you like these sorts of stats though, read Freakonomics.
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