Final Four Edition: Villanova Game Guide

8:47 PM EST, April 4th: North Carolina vs. Villanova. ACC vs. Big East. Powerhouse program vs. not-so-much-anymore-Cinderella program. The line right now is Carolina -7, with an over under at 159.5. If you followed my advice with the o/u for the Oklahoma game, you would have lost, so I'm not going to suggest anything else, lest you lose again. Anyway, let's take a look back at how we got here.
Carolina began the season with the highest expectations, yadda yadda, we're in the Final Four. That's all that matters now, so I refuse to take a look back. All of you that feel the slightest disappointment with Carolina's season so far can go to hell. I'm not going to rehash the season, because we were all there, and I frankly don't think there's any insight to be gained about this team by analyzing statistics from the regular season. But here we are. Carolina rolled over Oklahoma in the last game, 72-60. A well below average game for Carolina in terms of overall score, but there were many fewer possessions than normal because Carolina was executing its half court offense extremely well. By every metric, Carolina played a great game; FG%, FT%, 3ptFG%, TOs, Assists... there are no complaints here.
Villanova, in their tournament run, has really only played one tight game; the last one against Pitt. They beat UCLA and Duke without much trouble at all. Villanova was not a sleeper; afterall, they're a 3 seed. But if you have a look at their schedule, they really don't have any bad losses, except for an in conference game against Georgetown. Their other losses: 2 times vs. Louisville, @ WVU, @UConn, and @ Marquette. In terms of points for, points against, they're fairly average: 77 pf, 67 pa. You'll hear pundits talk nonstop about Nova's balance. They have 8, almost 9, players averaging double digit minutes per game. They share the ball pretty well, with 15 assists per game (compared to Carolina's 18). An important tipping point, as it always is, could be rebounds. Nova averages 38 rpg to Carolina's 42. But in the tournament, Carolina has averaged an anemic 32 (not including the Radford game). That's a little surprising, because Eazy-E Ed Davis (pictured right in a recent photo) has been playing a lot more, and he's a beast on the boards. Carolina is going to have to rebound better and keep Nova from getting second chance opportunities.
There's no reason to believe Carolina's recent lockdown defense is a trend. I think its about time everyone can agree that this is how this team defends; well. The style of man-to-man that Carolina is known for is excellent against a team like Villanova with so many scoring threats. Mainly, in man to man, you have more accountability from the defender. So if Roy doesn't like a specific matchup, he can sub a player into a better matchup. With zone defense, you really have to go with whoever plays that particular zone well. Nova does have some big swingmen that can score, who may create some matchup problems for the Heels.
Now, for some superstition fodder: Carolina beat Villanova in the tournament in 1982 and 2005. Does anyone remember how those years turned out?


I'll be back later with some names to know. This isn't my fulltime job, you know.