ESPN AccuScore UNC/Nova Prediction

Here's the whole article, cause most people won't be able to access it unless you're an ESPN Insider. Its vaguely interesting. Here's a link to the original.

Even though the Villanova Wildcats are 7.5-point underdogs in Vegas, if they win, they most likely will win by seven or more points. If the North Carolina Tar Heels beat the Cats, expect a double-digit margin (around 15 points). In other words, you can ignore the spread.

The two outcomes hing on two stats: 3-point shooting percentage and rebounding.

When Villanova won in simulations, the Wildcats shot 38 percent from 3-point range while North Carolina was a cold 31 percent. Villanova also slightly out-rebounded the Tar Heels. That makes a lot of sense, as we just saw a similar scenario play out in the Elite Eight.

In its upset win over Pittsburgh, Villanova shot just 30 percent from 3-point range, but this was better than Pitt's 27.8 percent. The undersized Villanova squad also out-rebounded one of the best rebounding teams in the country 29-27.

Free throw percentage was a huge factor for Villanova against Pittsburgh, but it will not likely be a big factor against the Tar Heels, as both teams shoot well from the line. Turnovers always play a major role, but Villanova can win even if it commits more turnovers than North Carolina. In simulation wins, Villanova averaged 13.1 turnovers to Carolina's 12.6.

IF VILLANOVA BEATS NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINA	FG%	FT%	3P%	TO	TREB	PTS
Tyler Hansbrough	44%	83%	34%	2.1	7.9	18.9
Ty Lawson	45%	79%	36%	2.5	2.9	15.3
Wayne Ellington	40%	78%	31%	2.2	4.7	14.4
Danny Green	38%	84%	32%	2.4	5.2	12.2
Deon Thompson	41%	60%	--	1.4	4.6	7.5
Ed Davis	44%	59%	--	1.2	6.0	5.7
TEAM TOTALS	41%	76%	31%	12.6	35.2	77.0
VILLANOVA	FG%	FT%	3P%	TO	TREB	PTS
Dante Cunningham	52%	72%	7%	2.7	7.3	17.9
Scottie Reynolds	42%	82%	39%	2.5	3.8	15.3
Dwayne Anderson	48%	81%	35%	1.9	6.5	12.6
Corey Fisher	44%	80%	37%	1.9	2.4	11.4
Corey Stokes	43%	87%	43%	1.1	3.6	9.9
Reggie Redding	44%	68%	31%	1.6	5.6	7.4
TEAM TOTALS	46%	77%	38%	13.1	35.6	84.6

When North Carolina won in simulations, the Tar Heels had the edge in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage and, most importantly, were plus-5.3 on the boards. When you combine the rebounding edge with a 3.7 turnover edge, the Tar Heels got nine more possessions out of these categories. Greater offensive efficiency (higher shooting percentages) combined with more possessions can result in an easy Carolina win.

IF NORTH CAROLINA BEATS VILLANOVA

NORTH CAROLINA	FG%	FT%	3P%	TO	TREB	PTS
Tyler Hansbrough	50%	84%	39%	1.9	8.8	20.4
Ty Lawson	51%	81%	43%	2.3	3.2	17.9
Wayne Ellington	45%	79%	38%	2.0	5.2	16.8
Danny Green	44%	87%	39%	2.2	5.6	14.3
Deon Thompson	47%	64%	--	1.2	4.9	8.6
Ed Davis	51%	61%	--	1.0	6.4	6.7
TEAM TOTALS	47%	78%	38%	11.3	38.3	88.6
VILLANOVA	FG%	FT%	3P%	TO	TREB	PTS
Dante Cunningham	47%	69%	3%	3.1	6.9	16.4
Scottie Reynolds	35%	81%	32%	2.8	3.3	13.2
Dwayne Anderson	42%	79%	28%	1.1	6.1	10.8
Corey Fisher	37%	79%	29%	2.1	2.2	9.9
Corey Stokes	35%	86%	35%	1.2	3.2	8.2
Reggie Redding	38%	67%	25%	1.9	5.3	6.6
TEAM TOTALS	40%	75%	30%	15.0	33.0	74.0

Spread 'Em

The Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games were filled with blowouts. Other than Pittsburgh's games against Xavier and Villanova and the Kansas-Michigan State game, every game ended with a final margin of more than 10 points. The average point spread in those 12 games was 4.4, yet the average final margin was 13.4.

We are left with four very good teams, and most experts will predict close games. But if there are close games Saturday, it will be a surprise. For the season, when a team was favored by four or fewer points, the average final margin was 8.91. This is not much less than when teams are favored by 7.5 or fewer points -- 9.34 average final margin.

How Has AccuScore Performed?

Now that you know what a victory for each team will look like in the final box score, you probably want to know which team to take. You can find those simulations here.

In the meantime, our predictions for both these teams have been pretty good all season. On point spread predictions, AccuScore's predictions have generated profits for both teams:

TEAM	ACCUSCORE POINT SPREAD RECORD
Villanova	21 Right, 11 Wrong, 65.6% accurate, +890 Units (110 risk per)
North Carolina	17 Right, 15 Wrong, 53.1% accurate, +50 Units
COMBINED	38 Right, 26 Wrong, 59.4% accurate, +940 Units

For the record, here is AccuScore's over/under prediction records for these two teams. Both of these teams have generated profits.

TEAM	ACCUSCORE POINT SPREAD RECORD
North Carolina	20 Right, 13 Wrong, 60.6% accurate, +570 Units (110 risk per)
Villanova	18 Right, 12 Wrong, 60.0% accurate, +480 Units
COMBINED	38 Right, 25 Wrong, 60.3% accurate, +1050 Units