Saturday, April 11, 2009
Friday, April 10, 2009
John Wall, Coach Clifton, and Roy Williams
I've never heard of Roy inspiring so much hate in someone. Clifton sounds a bit like a spurned, vindictive ex-girlfriend. I mean, tell me if I'm wrong, but he said he wants a coach who's a good person, and then goes on to call Roy a bad person. Take your own advice there, buddy. Roy is one of the most well liked and respected coaches in college. He has never been anything but a class act. So my guess is that Clifton, like a middle school girl, is trying to stir up controversy to get some attention. He's an embarrassment, and its a shame that he's partially in control of so many young talents' futures. Not only that, but his arm- flailing attention-whoring comes at the expense of his recruits futures. He's burning bridges, and I have no doubt that his lofty ambition of cannibalizing his players' careers for his own amelioration will fail.
Furthermore, Clifton met with Coach K and said he was impressed with Duke, and Wall now has Duke on his shortlist. Clifton said, "The emergence of Duke as a viable option, that in and of itself has caused a change."
"We all left the meeting with the conclusion that it was worth exploring further," said Clifton. "I respect Coach K and the way that he goes about business. … He was enough of a professional to deal with people based on who they really are, not on what he’s heard they might be. I’d be comfortable with any of my guys learning from and being shaped and molded by a guy who’s got that in his character."
Based on his earlier allusions, that last bit again seems like a dig at Roy. Clifton has proven himself to be a sycophantic leech, a carpetbagging, opportunist parasite, drunk on the power he gets from his players' leverage. I certainly hope his outlandish attention mongering doesn't affect the players unlucky enough to be in his auspices.
Coach on ESPN Radio
2009 vs. 2005
Some position player comparisons (and keep in mind, like I said, these guys had more minutes per game than the 2005 team, which partially explains the inflated numbers)
Hansbrough (20 ppg, 8 rpg) vs. Sean May (17.5 ppg, 11 rpg)
Lawson (17 ppg, 3 rpg, 7 apg, 2 spg, 2 TOpg) vs. Felton (13 ppg, 4 rpg, 4 apg, 0.3 spg, 3.6 TOpg)
Ellington (16 ppg, 5 rpg, 2.7 apg) vs. McCants (16 ppg, 3 rpg, 2.7 apg)
If we can objectively use these players to project NBA success, I think this 2009 team could be solid NBA players. McCants has shown some flashes of greatness. Felton has been excellent for the Bobcats and has consistently gotten better. The comparison between May and Hansbrough, though I think is much less apt, because May seems to have no drive whatsoever, whereas Tyler... well, it doesn't need to be said.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Championship Celebration at the Dome
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
2009 One Shining Moment Video, plus the Championship game in 2 minutes
Here are some highlights of the Championship game. I think I've probably watched this clip 10 or 12 times.
Honored Jersey's from the 2009 Championship Team
1. Be MVP of a Championship team
2. Be first or second team all American
or
3. Be a member of a gold winning Olympic team.
Waynestorm Ellington (number 22) was named MOP of the Final Four, and Ty Lawson (number 5) was a second team all American. Frankly, I (along with Roy Williams) think that ACC Player of the Year honors should also make someone eligible to have his jersey retired. I'm not sure how many ACC POYs there have been who haven't been first or second team all American. I'm guessing not that many.
And, for a player to have his jersey retired, he must win one of the six National Player of the Year awards: Associated Press, National Association of Basketball Coaches, Sporting News, John R. Wooden Award, Oscar Robertson Trophy, or Naismith College Player of the Year. Obviously, this includes Hansbrough (number 50).
So 60% of the starting 5 of this team will be in the rafters. That's pretty amazing. Carolina currently has 43 jerseys honored/retired. Adding 3 to that number from one team is pretty incredible.
And FYI, there's already two number 22s in the rafters; York Larese, who played from 1958-61, had his jersey retired when he was named second team all American. The second is from Bob Lewis, who played from 1964-1967, a first team All American.
Franklin Street Celebration Time Lapse
Eazy-E Returning for his Sophomore Season
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Monday, April 6, 2009
GO HEELS
Do it for blue cups at He's Not. Do it for cheese tots at Hector's. Do it for the bowl of muthafucking cheese. Do it for the kids who jump into pools from frat house roofs.
Do it for all the right reasons because it's one of the few places left in this world where you can.
But above all, before anything else in the world: do it for yourselves. Game on.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Bring on the Spartans!
One thing's for certain- no matter how much they protest, we know the Spartans will be at least a little in awe of the Tar Heels. Their eyes betray them (thanks Beth).
Friday, April 3, 2009
Final Four Edition: Villanova Game Guide
Carolina began the season with the highest expectations, yadda yadda, we're in the Final Four. That's all that matters now, so I refuse to take a look back. All of you that feel the slightest disappointment with Carolina's season so far can go to hell. I'm not going to rehash the season, because we were all there, and I frankly don't think there's any insight to be gained about this team by analyzing statistics from the regular season. But here we are. Carolina rolled over Oklahoma in the last game, 72-60. A well below average game for Carolina in terms of overall score, but there were many fewer possessions than normal because Carolina was executing its half court offense extremely well. By every metric, Carolina played a great game; FG%, FT%, 3ptFG%, TOs, Assists... there are no complaints here.
Villanova, in their tournament run, has really only played one tight game; the last one against Pitt. They beat UCLA and Duke without much trouble at all. Villanova was not a sleeper; afterall, they're a 3 seed. But if you have a look at their schedule, they really don't have any bad losses, except for an in conference game against Georgetown. Their other losses: 2 times vs. Louisville, @ WVU, @UConn, and @ Marquette. In terms of points for, points against, they're fairly average: 77 pf, 67 pa. You'll hear pundits talk nonstop about Nova's balance. They have 8, almost 9, players averaging double digit minutes per game. They share the ball pretty well, with 15 assists per game (compared to Carolina's 18). An important tipping point, as it always is, could be rebounds. Nova averages 38 rpg to Carolina's 42. But in the tournament, Carolina has averaged an anemic 32 (not including the Radford game). That's a little surprising, because Eazy-E Ed Davis (pictured right in a recent photo) has been playing a lot more, and he's a beast on the boards. Carolina is going to have to rebound better and keep Nova from getting second chance opportunities.
There's no reason to believe Carolina's recent lockdown defense is a trend. I think its about time everyone can agree that this is how this team defends; well. The style of man-to-man that Carolina is known for is excellent against a team like Villanova with so many scoring threats. Mainly, in man to man, you have more accountability from the defender. So if Roy doesn't like a specific matchup, he can sub a player into a better matchup. With zone defense, you really have to go with whoever plays that particular zone well. Nova does have some big swingmen that can score, who may create some matchup problems for the Heels.
Now, for some superstition fodder: Carolina beat Villanova in the tournament in 1982 and 2005. Does anyone remember how those years turned out?
I'll be back later with some names to know. This isn't my fulltime job, you know.
Tyler Hansbrough
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Lawson already a winner in Detroit
The Heels have only been in the swarthy sinkhole that is Detroit, MI since last night, but Ty Lawson's already a big winner: today he was named the recipient of this year's Bob Cousy Award for the nation's best point guard and even found time to win $250 in craps at the casino.
The last Tar Heel to win the Cousy award was Raymond Felton ('05). The last Tar Heel to be famous for gambling was Michael Jordan.
Our demons explained
The Bleacher Report posted a nice article explaining why this season hasn't been nearly as enjoyable as it should be, considering the amount of success and domination. It all comes down to one motherfucking bear of a thing: expectations.
Sometimes, ESPN just doesn't even try (including Ty Hanosaurus Rex)
Ty Hanosaurus Rex (below)
Some people just don't have enough to do. I may or may not be one of them (see: liveblogging from my couch during the McDonald's All American game).
Poll: Dean Dome toughest venue in college bball
According to a national poll of basketball fans. Sponsored by EA Sports. For their video game.
Number one, baby!
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
McDonalds Game
Dexter Strickland had a turnover, but has shown some quick moves. He's a little undersized, but he's shifty.
Wear twins have yet to get in the game.
8:20 pm: One of the Wear twins is in. No idea which one. He's really moving well with the ball. Has driven from the wing a couple times, and has a turnover and an unremarkable steal. Just had a highlight reel assist, too.
Duke recruit Mason Plumlee and Wear just high fived each other, and I threw up a little.
The other Wear is in now and also had a quick turnover. They've both made some bad quick decisions.
8:40 pm: The Wear twins are listed at 6'9" but look closer to 6'7". From the game in general, you see some flashes of real skill, but everybody looks raw and no one plays defense. It looks like all four of the Carolina recruits handle the ball really well and are threats from anywhere on the floor. But someone desperately needs to get John Henson some Weight Gain 4000.Apparently, when answering the question, "What coach in history would you most like to play for?" Henson answered, "Jim Valvano." I'm not sure I'm okay with that.
Henson just showed some more inside moves. He's a scoring machine.
8:45 pm: Henson again, +1. He's solid.
And a block. Damn.
8:55 pm: Okay, I don't know what to make of the Wears. They move really well, and sometimes handle the ball really well, but then double dribble in open court with no defender. But they seem to make things happen with some long assists, rebounds, solid defense...
D Strick just dove on the floor for a loose ball. Somewhere, Roy is smiling.
9:30 pm: Henson is all over the floor. Just got a little dish from one of the Wears. He seems to be able to dunk from anywhere within 10 feet of the basketball as long as he's got a step. Dunked at one end, got back and blocked a shot at the other. He looks like maybe the best athlete on the floor.
9:33 pm: The coach of the West team seems to have a strategy to have 1 Wear on the floor at all times. I think this is a good idea. List them as the same number, and play each for 20 minutes a game, so they look totally tireless. What could be more demoralizing?
If you like blue balls...
I was hoping Scoop was heading towards a wistful commentary underscoring the greatness we've seen unfold these last few weeks and how the season has come full circle, and the Heels have a chance to be that great team this weekend. Sadly, fail.
Now excuse me while I drag my "pantone blue" balls over to tarheelblue.com and wrap myself in the quick release of Adam Lucas' archives.
Feature on "Rambo"
Basically, he's the best.
ESPN Accuscore *Update*
UNC wins = 73%
Nova wins = 27%
For reference, the Elite Eight matchup only tilted to the Heels 62/38.
Go Heels.
ESPN AccuScore UNC/Nova Prediction
Even though the Villanova Wildcats are 7.5-point underdogs in Vegas, if they win, they most likely will win by seven or more points. If the North Carolina Tar Heels beat the Cats, expect a double-digit margin (around 15 points). In other words, you can ignore the spread.
The two outcomes hing on two stats: 3-point shooting percentage and rebounding.
When Villanova won in simulations, the Wildcats shot 38 percent from 3-point range while North Carolina was a cold 31 percent. Villanova also slightly out-rebounded the Tar Heels. That makes a lot of sense, as we just saw a similar scenario play out in the Elite Eight.
In its upset win over Pittsburgh, Villanova shot just 30 percent from 3-point range, but this was better than Pitt's 27.8 percent. The undersized Villanova squad also out-rebounded one of the best rebounding teams in the country 29-27.
Free throw percentage was a huge factor for Villanova against Pittsburgh, but it will not likely be a big factor against the Tar Heels, as both teams shoot well from the line. Turnovers always play a major role, but Villanova can win even if it commits more turnovers than North Carolina. In simulation wins, Villanova averaged 13.1 turnovers to Carolina's 12.6.
IF VILLANOVA BEATS NORTH CAROLINA
NORTH CAROLINA | FG% | FT% | 3P% | TO | TREB | PTS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tyler Hansbrough | 44% | 83% | 34% | 2.1 | 7.9 | 18.9 |
Ty Lawson | 45% | 79% | 36% | 2.5 | 2.9 | 15.3 |
Wayne Ellington | 40% | 78% | 31% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 14.4 |
Danny Green | 38% | 84% | 32% | 2.4 | 5.2 | 12.2 |
Deon Thompson | 41% | 60% | -- | 1.4 | 4.6 | 7.5 |
Ed Davis | 44% | 59% | -- | 1.2 | 6.0 | 5.7 |
TEAM TOTALS | 41% | 76% | 31% | 12.6 | 35.2 | 77.0 |
VILLANOVA | FG% | FT% | 3P% | TO | TREB | PTS |
Dante Cunningham | 52% | 72% | 7% | 2.7 | 7.3 | 17.9 |
Scottie Reynolds | 42% | 82% | 39% | 2.5 | 3.8 | 15.3 |
Dwayne Anderson | 48% | 81% | 35% | 1.9 | 6.5 | 12.6 |
Corey Fisher | 44% | 80% | 37% | 1.9 | 2.4 | 11.4 |
Corey Stokes | 43% | 87% | 43% | 1.1 | 3.6 | 9.9 |
Reggie Redding | 44% | 68% | 31% | 1.6 | 5.6 | 7.4 |
TEAM TOTALS | 46% | 77% | 38% | 13.1 | 35.6 | 84.6 |
When North Carolina won in simulations, the Tar Heels had the edge in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage and, most importantly, were plus-5.3 on the boards. When you combine the rebounding edge with a 3.7 turnover edge, the Tar Heels got nine more possessions out of these categories. Greater offensive efficiency (higher shooting percentages) combined with more possessions can result in an easy Carolina win.
IF NORTH CAROLINA BEATS VILLANOVA
NORTH CAROLINA | FG% | FT% | 3P% | TO | TREB | PTS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tyler Hansbrough | 50% | 84% | 39% | 1.9 | 8.8 | 20.4 |
Ty Lawson | 51% | 81% | 43% | 2.3 | 3.2 | 17.9 |
Wayne Ellington | 45% | 79% | 38% | 2.0 | 5.2 | 16.8 |
Danny Green | 44% | 87% | 39% | 2.2 | 5.6 | 14.3 |
Deon Thompson | 47% | 64% | -- | 1.2 | 4.9 | 8.6 |
Ed Davis | 51% | 61% | -- | 1.0 | 6.4 | 6.7 |
TEAM TOTALS | 47% | 78% | 38% | 11.3 | 38.3 | 88.6 |
VILLANOVA | FG% | FT% | 3P% | TO | TREB | PTS |
Dante Cunningham | 47% | 69% | 3% | 3.1 | 6.9 | 16.4 |
Scottie Reynolds | 35% | 81% | 32% | 2.8 | 3.3 | 13.2 |
Dwayne Anderson | 42% | 79% | 28% | 1.1 | 6.1 | 10.8 |
Corey Fisher | 37% | 79% | 29% | 2.1 | 2.2 | 9.9 |
Corey Stokes | 35% | 86% | 35% | 1.2 | 3.2 | 8.2 |
Reggie Redding | 38% | 67% | 25% | 1.9 | 5.3 | 6.6 |
TEAM TOTALS | 40% | 75% | 30% | 15.0 | 33.0 | 74.0 |
Spread 'Em
The Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games were filled with blowouts. Other than Pittsburgh's games against Xavier and Villanova and the Kansas-Michigan State game, every game ended with a final margin of more than 10 points. The average point spread in those 12 games was 4.4, yet the average final margin was 13.4.
We are left with four very good teams, and most experts will predict close games. But if there are close games Saturday, it will be a surprise. For the season, when a team was favored by four or fewer points, the average final margin was 8.91. This is not much less than when teams are favored by 7.5 or fewer points -- 9.34 average final margin.
How Has AccuScore Performed?
Now that you know what a victory for each team will look like in the final box score, you probably want to know which team to take. You can find those simulations here.
In the meantime, our predictions for both these teams have been pretty good all season. On point spread predictions, AccuScore's predictions have generated profits for both teams:
TEAM | ACCUSCORE POINT SPREAD RECORD |
---|---|
Villanova | 21 Right, 11 Wrong, 65.6% accurate, +890 Units (110 risk per) |
North Carolina | 17 Right, 15 Wrong, 53.1% accurate, +50 Units |
COMBINED | 38 Right, 26 Wrong, 59.4% accurate, +940 Units |
For the record, here is AccuScore's over/under prediction records for these two teams. Both of these teams have generated profits.
TEAM | ACCUSCORE POINT SPREAD RECORD |
---|---|
North Carolina | 20 Right, 13 Wrong, 60.6% accurate, +570 Units (110 risk per) |
Villanova | 18 Right, 12 Wrong, 60.0% accurate, +480 Units |
COMBINED | 38 Right, 25 Wrong, 60.3% accurate, +1050 Units |
Adam Lucas on Marcus Ginyard
He makes a good point; although Marcus can't get on the game floor, he can play in practice, which really makes Danny and Wayne step up their game on off days. I wonder how much that may have contributed to Wayne's recent offensive burst.